ATL: IRENE - Models

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3821 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:24 pm

alch97 wrote:I'm a bit confused. So now some of the models are bringing it back west? Will this be taken seriously @11?


They will probably stick with the current track at 11:00PM but if the 00z models shift west along with these 18z models then come 5:00AM they will have to make a westward adjustment.

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3822 Postby Jevo » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:25 pm

ronjon wrote:Seems that the 18z NAM, GFS, and HWRF are all showing stronger ridging in the near term, say out the next 60 hrs.


The NAM Has been on the stronger ridge bandwagon since 0z this morning, but was widely discounted due to the fact that it stinks at tropical cyclone forecasting.. It is however a champ when it comes to synoptics
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3823 Postby cjrciadt » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:25 pm

Almost like Floyd (99) that model track
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#3824 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:26 pm

114 hrs...

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3825 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:27 pm

oh boy...this is not looking good for Savannah
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3826 Postby MWatkins » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:27 pm

18Z HWRF looks like the 0Z GFS from last night, but yes notable that it has come back left with the GFS. Both models feeling a little more ridging.

Watch now as the next GFDL recurves it...

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#3827 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:27 pm

This will surely be factored in...it HAS too...The main run (GFS) was a little WEST and HWRF is DEF. WEST this run....This only has 1/3 of the drops too....
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#3828 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:27 pm

120hrs... looking like Savannah to me


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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3829 Postby Jevo » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:28 pm

cjrciadt wrote:Almost like Floyd (99) that model track


Floyd came in at a higher Lat... and had a pronounced turn... I think Arlene is going to resemble more of an uppercut

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Re:

#3830 Postby pricetag56 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:28 pm

chris_fit wrote:114 hrs...

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still getting stronger? can those waters really support that
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#3831 Postby Vortex » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:28 pm

12Z UKMET landfall FL







http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal096.gif
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3832 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:29 pm

cjrciadt wrote:Almost like Floyd (99) that model track


I think a track like Floyd is definitely possible with one caveat...The turn won't be as sudden as what we saw with Floyd. Floyd was turned by a pretty good cold front that was sweeping east. I don't think we are going to see that this time. The turn will be more subtle which puts more of the coastline in play...

If the intensity models are accurate this could be Floyd on Steroids run amuck!!!

SFT
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Re: Re:

#3833 Postby lonelymike » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:29 pm

CronkPSU wrote:
lonelymike wrote:HRWF??? U guys really don't take this model seriously :roll:


which model is your favorite mike?



I'm a Euro hugger and am also partial to the GFDL.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3834 Postby webke » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:29 pm

CronkPSU wrote:oh boy...this is not looking good for Savannah

I think Charleston will have more to worry about with this run, but we need to see if the Euro makes a westward shift too.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3835 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:29 pm

that would be a western shift for ukmet from earlier today but consistent with what it had been doing for a while, right?
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Re: Re:

#3836 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:30 pm

pricetag56 wrote:
chris_fit wrote:114 hrs...

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still getting stronger? can those waters really support that


No hurricane has ever hit north of Fort Pierce, Florida with a pressure below 930mb, and none that I know of have even come close.
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Re: Re:

#3837 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:30 pm

lonelymike wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:
lonelymike wrote:HRWF??? U guys really don't take this model seriously :roll:


which model is your favorite mike?



I'm a Euro hugger and am also partial to the GFDL.


you're right...those are better than the HWRF, can't argue with that
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#3838 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:30 pm

126hrs, last one....

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#3839 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:30 pm

Hello SAV????? and thats moving NW
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#3840 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:31 pm

Now it's GFDL Time
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