ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

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Fyzn94
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Re: Re:

#3861 Postby Fyzn94 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:52 pm

psyclone wrote:
chris_fit wrote:This latest recon pass is not very impressive....

it wouldn't be surprising to me if the storm had some issues due to its proximity to hispaniola.

True...we may not see a major hurricane until tomorrow afternoon...knock on wood...
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3862 Postby 3090 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:52 pm

SapphireSea wrote:It appears while the center may lose some convection, the overall system continues to get better organized. We will wake up to a much different system in the morning.


Ya think? I don't know, not sure. Could go either way.
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#3863 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:53 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 230251
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 29 20110823
024100 1945N 06911W 6961 03021 //// +141 //// 250043 047 028 000 01
024130 1943N 06909W 6969 03015 //// +145 //// 253049 050 038 000 01
024200 1942N 06908W 6966 03031 //// +134 //// 250056 060 042 000 01
024230 1941N 06906W 6968 03037 //// +118 //// 245066 070 048 000 01
024300 1939N 06904W 6970 03043 //// +106 //// 242069 071 053 001 01
024330 1938N 06903W 6965 03059 //// +103 //// 240065 068 055 001 01
024400 1937N 06902W 6965 03068 //// +100 //// 237064 065 054 000 05
024430 1936N 06900W 6967 03076 //// +102 //// 233063 065 052 001 05
024500 1934N 06859W 6966 03088 //// +108 //// 232061 063 050 000 01
024530 1933N 06857W 6965 03093 //// +112 //// 233060 061 050 000 05
024600 1932N 06856W 6969 03099 //// +109 //// 227058 058 049 000 01
024630 1931N 06855W 6969 03104 //// +103 //// 225056 057 048 001 01
024700 1929N 06853W 6965 03114 //// +103 //// 226053 055 046 003 01
024730 1928N 06852W 6973 03108 //// +093 //// 214048 049 045 002 01
024800 1927N 06851W 6962 03121 //// +098 //// 228048 049 044 002 01
024830 1926N 06849W 6968 03119 //// +098 //// 222044 046 043 002 01
024900 1925N 06848W 6966 03127 //// +102 //// 221042 043 041 001 01
024930 1924N 06846W 6966 03127 //// +095 //// 217042 042 039 002 01
025000 1922N 06845W 6967 03126 //// +093 //// 212043 043 037 001 01
025030 1921N 06844W 6967 03132 //// +095 //// 214042 042 037 003 01
$$
;
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3864 Postby Battlebrick » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:54 pm

I think recon didn't get high winds because they're 10k ft up.. lets see what the dropsonde says, if there is one for the eyewall.
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#3865 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:54 pm

000
URNT12 KNHC 230251
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 23/02:38:20Z
B. 19 deg 51 min N
069 deg 11 min W
C. 700 mb 2954 m
D. 71 kt
E. 307 deg 11 nm
F. 048 deg 69 kt
G. 310 deg 16 nm
H. 983 mb
I. 12 C / 3046 m
J. 16 C / 3053 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN E-SE
M. C14
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 0709A IRENE OB 12
MAX FL WIND 77 KT NE QUAD 00:53:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 71 KT SE QUAD 02:43:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 307 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3866 Postby dolebot_Broward_NW » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:54 pm

alch97 wrote:The NHC must be pretty confident of the track given that they have not put up at least a tropical storm watch/warning for SFL.......


Watches are 48 hours out, and they used to be 36 hours. Even if the doomsday GFDL run verifies we still have 24 more hours to go before a likely watch is issued.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3867 Postby tgenius » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:55 pm

So thoughts for the 11pm will be shift east/west or stay the same?
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Re:

#3868 Postby dolebot_Broward_NW » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:57 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:How can you brush off s.fla when the thing is still heading straight at it and nobody can state why its going to turn they just say it will. give me some solid data and reasoning as to why this storm is going to change direction. All I have heard is maybe this trough or maybe that trough possibly a weakness in the ridge. If it slows down it could go more west well now it slowed down and its going to still stay on forecast track????

Anyone have a clue?? Or just a bunch of guesses?


The impetus for a turn away from here is a trough that all the models have progged to yank her up and out. More recent model runs have it tracking a bit closer than earlier today. The 00Z runs will happen overnight starting witht he GFS around 1130 EDT - So we will see.

NAM has the trough weak, with the texas high bridging with the Atlantic high - leaving the storm with jsut about nowhere to go.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3869 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:57 pm

i'll say small shift left
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3870 Postby Tampa_God » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:57 pm

tgenius wrote:So thoughts for the 11pm will be shift east/west or stay the same?

Be interesting to see if they catch on with the recent models of a west shift. I think they might just stay the same for now.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3871 Postby GTStorm » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:57 pm

tgenius wrote:So thoughts for the 11pm will be shift east/west or stay the same?


stay the same...more east tomorrow, track to skirt the outer banks.

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3872 Postby SapphireSea » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:57 pm

tgenius wrote:So thoughts for the 11pm will be shift east/west or stay the same?


I am guessing that they will bend it to the west slightly at the very end, and keep the same general direction 00H - 72H
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3873 Postby Lifesgud2 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:58 pm

tgenius wrote:So thoughts for the 11pm will be shift east/west or stay the same?


The 11Pm Adv will most likely stay the same. Its the 5am that Im most concerned about. Models must stay in agreement for a good 6 to 12 hour time frame (atleast this far out) in order for the NHC to change the forecast path.
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#3874 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:58 pm

FWIW, the latest VDM is all over the 11pm position point on today's 11am advisory.
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#3875 Postby supercane » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:58 pm

000
WTNT44 KNHC 230300
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

AFTER DEEPENING QUICKLY EARLIER THIS EVENING...THE INTENSITY OF
IRENE APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF A BIT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 980 MB ...AND MAXIMUM WINDS
HAVE NOT INCREASED SINCE THE EARLIER MAXIMUM OF 106 KT AT 850 MB.
THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
OVERALL THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...
WITH A LARGE CDO FORMING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER AND THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTING A CLOSED EYEWALL. SOUTHERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 10
KT IS PRESENT OVER IRENE ACCORDING TO SATELLITE ANALYSIS FROM
UW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT OTHERWISE THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS SPECIAL ADVISORY AND SHOWS
IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS AND REACHING A
PEAK OF 115 KT IN 72 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS AFTER THAT TIME.

AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THAT THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED
A BIT...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/10. OVERALL THE
TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED...AS IRENE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO ON THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH LOCATED EAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL LIFT OUT WITHIN 24
HOURS...LEAVING A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE
BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IRENE TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD
AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BY DAYS 2 AND 3. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
TRACK OF IRENE APPEARS TO BE SENSITIVE TO THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES/CANADIAN BORDER. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME RUN-TO-RUN
VARIABILITY IN HOW MUCH THESE SHORTWAVES WILL AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN
THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WILL BE
CRITICAL TO HOW SOON IRENE TURNS NORTHWARD OR EVEN EAST OF DUE
NORTH AT DAYS 4 AND 5. OVERALL...THE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE
HAS DECREASED THIS CYCLE...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE SLIGHT
RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION AND A SLIGHT WESTWARD
SHIFT IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS RESULTS IN ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IS A SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWING THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE
THAT KEEPS THE CYCLONE OFFSHORE AT DAY 5.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMIND USERS NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR
AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY.

OF NOTE...SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE FLIGHTS FROM THE NOAA G-IV AND AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE C-130 AIRCRAFT PROVIDED NUMEROUS DROPSONDES FOR
ASSIMILATION INTO THE 0000 UTC MODEL CYCLE. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE
THE ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND AND UPSTREAM OF IRENE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 19.9N 69.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 20.4N 70.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 21.1N 72.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 22.2N 74.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 23.5N 75.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 26.5N 78.0W 115 KT 135 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 30.0N 79.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 33.5N 78.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
WTNT34 KNHC 230258
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE JUST NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 69.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM E OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND LOCALIZED
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 9
TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. STORM SURGE
WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI
Image
000
WTNT24 KNHC 230255
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0300 UTC TUE AUG 23 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 69.2W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 45SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 69.2W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 68.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.4N 70.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 15SE 15SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 40SE 35SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.1N 72.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 45SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 90SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.2N 74.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 25SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 45SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 100SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.5N 75.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 85NE 70SE 55SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...185NE 140SE 80SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 30.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 33.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 69.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Image
000
FONT14 KNHC 230256
PWSAT4

HURRICANE IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0300 UTC TUE AUG 23 2011

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 1 6 28
TROP DEPRESSION X X X 1 1 6 13
TROPICAL STORM 3 2 2 4 9 21 23
HURRICANE 97 98 98 95 89 67 36
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 12 11 11 19 23 31 22
HUR CAT 2 60 34 27 30 28 20 8
HUR CAT 3 23 44 44 33 28 13 6
HUR CAT 4 2 9 14 13 11 2 1
HUR CAT 5 X 1 2 1 1 X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 95KT 105KT 110KT 110KT 115KT 105KT 100KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)

NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)

GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)

RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14)

CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)

MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21(30)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 23(36)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12)
WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20)

MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 24(43)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 21(45)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)

ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17)

SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 15(38)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 9(43)
MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15)
MAYPORT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)

JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 9(39)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 33(46) 5(51)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 3(19)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7)

ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 28(44) 3(47)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15)
ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 30(57) 2(59)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 1(26)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10)

PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 29(56) 3(59)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 1(26)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 25(62) 1(63)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) 1(29)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 43(45) 16(61) 1(62)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 13(29) X(29)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 10(48) 1(49)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) X(20)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 5(24) X(24)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) X(15)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 8(25) 1(26)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7)
MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 10(25) 1(26)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)

VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 2(21)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 2(23)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 3(20)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10)

ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11)

APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7)

GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7)

PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)

COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 62(70) 11(81) X(81)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 11(51) X(51)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 8(27) X(27)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) 48(85) 2(87) 1(88)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 49(59) 2(61) X(61)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 1(32) X(32)

ANDROS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 36(44) 29(73) 1(74) 1(75)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 32(46) 1(47) X(47)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) X(22) X(22)

GREAT EXUMA 34 X 5( 5) 42(47) 40(87) 6(93) X(93) X(93)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) 15(15) 46(61) 11(72) X(72) X(72)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 9(41) X(41) X(41)

SAN SALVADOR 34 1 5( 6) 52(58) 27(85) 4(89) X(89) X(89)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 17(17) 32(49) 5(54) X(54) X(54)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24)

MAYAGUANA 34 4 71(75) 21(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
MAYAGUANA 50 X 29(29) 41(70) 2(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
MAYAGUANA 64 X 5( 5) 26(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)

GRAND TURK 34 83 15(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
GRAND TURK 50 31 46(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77)
GRAND TURK 64 3 21(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)

HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)

CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 6(20) X(20) X(20)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 5( 7) 12(19) 4(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

LES CAYES 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 3 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)

CAPE BEATA 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

PUERTO PLATA 34 90 2(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
PUERTO PLATA 50 45 4(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
PUERTO PLATA 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

SANTO DOMINGO 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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CronkPSU
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3876 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:58 pm

Image

looks about the same
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3877 Postby SeminoleWind » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:59 pm

CronkPSU wrote:Image

looks about the same



looks the same to me is it not?
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#3878 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:59 pm

11pm Track pretty much the same. Only slightly right at the final forecast point.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3879 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:59 pm

whoa...cat four over the bahamas now...wonder why they have it go back down to cat 3 so quickly over those still super hot waters next to florida
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#3880 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:59 pm

Based on that, a borderline Cat 2/3 near Wilmington, NC (100 kt at last point). But still a 250 mile error either way with 67% confidence.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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