ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[dixiebreeze]

Very similar track:

San Felipe-Okeechobee Hurricane 1928
This classic Cape Verde hurricane was first detected over the tropical Atlantic on September 10, although it likely formed several days earlier. It moved westward through the Leeward Islands on the 12th. It then turned west-northwestward, scoring a direct hit on Puerto Rico on the 13th (the feast of San Felipe) as a Category 4 hurricane. The hurricane continued west-northwestward through the Bahamas and made landfall near Palm Beach, Florida on September 16. It turned north-northeastward over the Florida Peninsula on the 17th, a motion which brought the remains of the storm to eastern North Carolina on the 19th. It then turned northward and merged with a non-tropical low over the eastern Great Lakes on September 20.

No reliable wind readings are available from near the landfall area in Florida. However, Palm Beach reported a minimum pressure of 27.43 in, making this the fourth strongest hurricane of record to hit the United States. In Puerto Rico, San Juan reported 144 mph sustained winds, while Guayama reported a pressure of 27.65 inches. Additionally, a ship just south of St. Croix, United States Virgin Islands (USVI) reported a pressure of 27.50 inches, while Guadeloupe in the Leeward Islands reported a pressure of 27.76 inches.

This hurricane caused heavy casualties and extensive destruction along its path from the Leeward Islands to Florida. The worst tragedy occurred at inland Lake Okeechobee in Florida, where the hurricane caused a lake surge of 6 to 9 ft that inundated the surrounding area. 1,836 people died in Florida, mainly due to the lake surge. An additional 312 people died in Puerto Rico, and 18 more were reported dead in the Bahamas. Damage to property was estimated at $50,000,000 in Puerto Rico and $25,000,000 in Florida.

[Dave]

[Old-TimeCane]

Radius or diameter? Just to be clear.

I would think radius since they usually word it as the winds reaching out from the center.

[SeaBrz_FL]

Can someone compare the atmospheric guidance differences or similarities between Irene and Jeanne in 2004? I mean just the night before Jeanne came roaring in at Sewall's Point she was predicted to stay offshore. I am so hoping there was something north of her that caused that to happen and the same thing is not there in the path of Irene. Thanks in advance.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 230411
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 37 20110823
040100 2031N 06851W 6966 03119 //// +090 //// 144055 056 /// /// 05
040130 2030N 06852W 6965 03117 //// +093 //// 142052 054 /// /// 05
040200 2029N 06853W 6968 03119 //// +095 //// 139049 050 /// /// 05
040230 2028N 06854W 6967 03117 //// +095 //// 136048 049 /// /// 05
040300 2027N 06856W 6967 03114 //// +091 //// 132049 050 /// /// 05
040330 2025N 06857W 6974 03107 //// +091 //// 132053 054 /// /// 05
040400 2024N 06858W 6961 03117 //// +090 //// 132056 058 /// /// 05
040430 2023N 06900W 6971 03102 //// +093 //// 134057 058 /// /// 05
040500 2022N 06901W 6969 03101 //// +090 //// 127056 057 /// /// 05
040530 2020N 06902W 6970 03094 //// +086 //// 131061 062 /// /// 05
040600 2019N 06904W 6964 03098 //// +089 //// 129062 063 /// /// 05
040630 2018N 06905W 6967 03089 //// +089 //// 130055 058 /// /// 05
040700 2016N 06906W 6965 03091 //// +089 //// 126057 060 /// /// 05
040730 2015N 06907W 6971 03074 //// +084 //// 129068 074 /// /// 05
040800 2014N 06909W 6970 03063 //// +074 //// 127076 078 /// /// 05
040830 2013N 06910W 6973 03060 //// +077 //// 130073 076 /// /// 05
040900 2011N 06912W 6976 03042 //// +083 //// 129072 076 /// /// 05
040930 2010N 06913W 6953 03052 //// +084 //// 136081 083 /// /// 05
041000 2009N 06914W 6981 03004 //// +091 //// 138079 081 /// /// 05
041030 2008N 06916W 6949 03029 //// +093 //// 133063 070 /// /// 05
$$
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[Steve H.]

Okay, so your saying we won't get those results til tomorrow?

[dixiebreeze]

Interactive track of Okechobee Hurricane 1928:

http://www.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/inde ... 251N14340#

[WxGuy1]

Trough and 'Wall' of Dry Air ahead of Irene

There is NO significant dry air ahead of it. That satellite image doesn't show mid-level dry air. Higher level dry air has no impact on hurricanes.

That's not true. Well, I guess it depends upon the definition of "significant". Per water vapor satellite data, there *is* some drier air currently downstream of Irene.



DMSP SSM/IS


GOES Composite (E/W):


Now, this isn't massively dry air by any means, but 40-45 mm (~1.55-1.60") total precipitable water isn't the "moistest" air around, either.

[Dave]

[Ptarmigan]

Katrina was also a hurricane that didn't show any eye even when it was over 100mph...

thats why i believe that once the eye does form it will make a run at cat 5 possibly

I have noticed that with many intense hurricanes. I wonder if a study was ever carried on that topic.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 230421
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 38 20110823
041100 2007N 06917W 6965 03003 //// +127 //// 118054 058 /// /// 05
041130 2005N 06918W 6965 02998 //// +134 //// 111047 052 /// /// 05
041200 2003N 06919W 6967 02983 //// +132 //// 111033 037 /// /// 05
041230 2002N 06919W 6962 02983 //// +130 //// 112018 025 /// /// 05
041300 2000N 06920W 6962 02984 //// +125 //// 120012 016 /// /// 05
041330 1958N 06921W 6966 02979 //// +137 //// 239003 006 /// /// 05
041400 1957N 06922W 6968 02977 //// +142 //// 283019 026 /// /// 05
041430 1955N 06923W 6959 02992 //// +149 //// 279034 039 /// /// 05
041500 1954N 06923W 6967 02996 //// +146 //// 273040 041 /// /// 05
041530 1954N 06925W 6959 03006 //// +156 //// 277037 041 /// /// 05
041600 1955N 06926W 6968 02985 //// +152 //// 280030 031 /// /// 05
041630 1957N 06926W 6963 02987 //// +160 //// 289020 028 /// /// 05
041700 1958N 06925W 6970 02970 //// +159 //// 326006 011 /// /// 05
041730 2000N 06925W 6963 02978 //// +148 //// 096006 015 /// /// 05
041800 2002N 06924W 6972 02965 //// +145 //// 106024 026 /// /// 05
041830 2004N 06924W 6961 02987 //// +150 //// 099030 033 /// /// 05
041900 2005N 06925W 6971 02972 //// +149 //// 093042 049 /// /// 05
041930 2007N 06927W 6971 02981 //// +147 //// 090055 056 /// /// 05
042000 2008N 06928W 6966 03000 //// +148 //// 086052 053 /// /// 05
042030 2010N 06930W 6959 03026 //// +131 //// 080056 058 /// /// 05
$$
;

Pressure looks to be at its lowest yet?

[Battlebrick]

000
URNT15 KNHC 230421
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 38 20110823
041100 2007N 06917W 6965 03003 //// +127 //// 118054 058 /// /// 05
041130 2005N 06918W 6965 02998 //// +134 //// 111047 052 /// /// 05
041200 2003N 06919W 6967 02983 //// +132 //// 111033 037 /// /// 05
041230 2002N 06919W 6962 02983 //// +130 //// 112018 025 /// /// 05
041300 2000N 06920W 6962 02984 //// +125 //// 120012 016 /// /// 05
041330 1958N 06921W 6966 02979 //// +137 //// 239003 006 /// /// 05
041400 1957N 06922W 6968 02977 //// +142 //// 283019 026 /// /// 05
041430 1955N 06923W 6959 02992 //// +149 //// 279034 039 /// /// 05
041500 1954N 06923W 6967 02996 //// +146 //// 273040 041 /// /// 05
041530 1954N 06925W 6959 03006 //// +156 //// 277037 041 /// /// 05
041600 1955N 06926W 6968 02985 //// +152 //// 280030 031 /// /// 05
041630 1957N 06926W 6963 02987 //// +160 //// 289020 028 /// /// 05
041700 1958N 06925W 6970 02970 //// +159 //// 326006 011 /// /// 05
041730 2000N 06925W 6963 02978 //// +148 //// 096006 015 /// /// 05
041800 2002N 06924W 6972 02965 //// +145 //// 106024 026 /// /// 05
041830 2004N 06924W 6961 02987 //// +150 //// 099030 033 /// /// 05
041900 2005N 06925W 6971 02972 //// +149 //// 093042 049 /// /// 05
041930 2007N 06927W 6971 02981 //// +147 //// 090055 056 /// /// 05
042000 2008N 06928W 6966 03000 //// +148 //// 086052 053 /// /// 05
042030 2010N 06930W 6959 03026 //// +131 //// 080056 058 /// /// 05
$$
;

Pressure looks to be at its lowest yet?

dropsonde says 983 mb @ 17 kts.

[jpigott]

Should be getting another VDM here shortly

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks to me like Miss Irene is struggling a bit tonight due to her proximity to Hispaniola. Looks like the inflow from the South is being cutoff. How she interacts with this island may have major implications in the track and intensity down the road...JMHO.

SFT

[Dave]

[SouthFloridawx]

What's up with the extrap surface pressure for the HDOB's?

[HURAKAN]

struggling? Far from that

[SouthDadeFish]

Lol Hurakan beat me to it. Yeah it's definitely not struggling. I think it won't fully bomb though until it moves farther from Hispaniola.

[psyclone]

Remember the storm watches and warnings are based on the cone, not the forecast point.

That is a myth. Watches and warning are decided by the track forecast and wind radii forecast.

All the cone is in the 67th percentile of all forecast errors over the past 5 years.

ding ding ding. point here. based on the current track i could see hurricane watches and ts warnings for the east coast. that doesn't mean those conditions will actually take place though.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 230429
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 23/04:17:30Z
B. 20 deg 00 min N
069 deg 25 min W
C. 700 mb 2933 m
D. NA
E. NA
F. 138 deg 83 kt
G. 050 deg 14 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 9 C / 3039 m
J. 16 C / 3051 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C15
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 0709A IRENE OB 17
MAX FL WIND 83 KT NE QUAD 04:09:50Z
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