ATL: IRENE - Models

[Canelaw99]

jlaud - get that generator fired up!! Isn't that what has been keeping these storms away so far?

on topic - Holy crap! Trends, please go back east...WAYYYY east, please

[jlauderdal]

It really is the next round of globals that will hopefully tell the tale here. For those of us who live in the part of South FL that "sticks out" to the east -- Palm Beach County -- even a difference of 40-80 miles would make a big difference in terms of impact. So a slight shift should be paid attention to IF the next batch of models with the upper air data from the GIV flight continues this trend.

this could be a situation where a cat 1 coming up through the keys then up the spine would be better than this 2-3 sitting right offshore just a wobble away from coming in...we have to really be concerned about the error rate now

[KBBOCA]

I don't ever recall seeing that kind of request for weather station soundings before. Is that pretty standard? Or is the NHC taking special measures, or is this something quite recent?

Don't know how often they request this data from weather stations, but here is a link of the one's that sent up balloons:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/11082218_OBS/

Awesome link. Thanks so much!

[JPmia]

90hr...



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being in the bullseye this close in is not a good place to be folks especially now that we have west models coming east and east models coming back west a bit, another 18 hours of this and its time to get busy..seems like we are closing in on a solution of no more than 150 off SE florida and more likely around 100, a wobble here and there and we have issues

Yeah, it appears this is going to get uncomfortably close to us to our east... or worse. I can see some tropical storm force winds near the coast with some of these model runs.

[Dean4Storms]

Would be pretty bad if the models make a significant shift west into the gulf.not saying that will happen but u never know what'll happen once it leaves hispanola.

This isn't making it to the Gulf according to any of the models, too far north and too deep a system.

[Rgv20]

18z&12zGFDL hitting Miami is an interesting solution but its hard to go against the consensus of the GFS&ECMWF which keep Irene around 78W east of Florida.

[stormhunter7]

Did the 00z tropical suite shift left?

[jlauderdal]

jlaud - get that generator fired up!! Isn't that what has been keeping these storms away so far?

on topic - Holy crap! Trends, please go back east...WAYYYY east, please

too early for the voodo stuff but maybe tomorrow...trend is working against us now, thats the way these things can go when converging on an outcome

[SouthFloridawx]

Did the 00z tropical suite shift left?

Yes it did.

[gatorcane]

jlaud - get that generator fired up!! Isn't that what has been keeping these storms away so far?

on topic - Holy crap! Trends, please go back east...WAYYYY east, please

Yeah the HWRF shifting west like that is not too comforting, especially since the GFDL has been insistent on South Florida for the past 2 days now with just some slight right shifts but very consistent.

The 00Z models will get more data, so if they shift west, wow is all I have to say.

I would hope the GFS and ECMWF still have it recurving away from South Florida at around 78W.

TWC though definitely keeps mentioning South FL is by no means out of the woods. Interesting they keep emphasizing that.

[StormingB81]

My Family lives in Orlando and St Cloud so I will be watching this one very closely!

[stormhunter7]

Looks like on the SWFMD storm 9 image.. 00Z shifted close to FL, before turning and skirting NC coast

[shaggy]

The 18z TVCN stayed with a track almost identical to the GFS and the 3 main models the NHC likes to use are all still clustered fairly well. The GFDL and the HWRF are interesting runs and shows us that nobody should let their guard down. Not sure how much weight the NHC is gonna throw the GFDL since its been an outlier all along.

The 18zTVCN has not updated yet.. if you look you will see that the 18zHWRF and 18Z NOGAPS tracks are not reflected on the map yet.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots

Hmmm link I saw shows the 22/1800z run of the tvcn.

[SeminoleWind]

The 18z TVCN stayed with a track almost identical to the GFS and the 3 main models the NHC likes to use are all still clustered fairly well. The GFDL and the HWRF are interesting runs and shows us that nobody should let their guard down. Not sure how much weight the NHC is gonna throw the GFDL since its been an outlier all along.

The 18zTVCN has not updated yet.. if you look you will see that the 18zHWRF and 18Z NOGAPS tracks are not reflected on the map yet.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots

it actually takes a few hours for them to reflect on that sfwm page for whatever reason

[gatorcane]

Latest 18Z and 00Z models:

The GFDL/HWRF/UKMET/NOGAPs are now on the left of the model guidance evenelope close to Florida or hitting Florida (GFDL), while the GFS/ECMWF/LGEM models take it more east of Florida.

Looks like we don't have as good of consensus any longer and the spread is starting to widen again.

Looks like the BAMD is showing a more pronounced NW movement in the Bahamas, maybe responding to the ridge more?

[Jevo]

Did the 00z tropical suite shift left?

I dont believe the 0z models have started yet.... we're still working off 18z

[Evil Jeremy]

TWC though definitely keeps mentioning South FL is by no means out of the woods. Interesting they keep emphasizing that.

Cantore is really implying sfl is in danger without saying so and countering the cone.

[TheShrimper]

Would be pretty bad if the models make a significant shift west into the gulf.not saying that will happen but u never know what'll happen once it leaves hispanola.

How can it leave Hispanola when it was NEVER there? Don't worry, it aint going to Mississippi.

[CronkPSU]

didn't ukmet and nogaps shift to a near miss or hit for florida?

[seahawkjd]

Was it Cantore that for the longest time had the reputation of ending up wherever the storm didn't go? It was one of the Weather Channel reporters and you'd basically breathe a sigh of relief if you were near where they set up for the storm.