ATL: IRENE - Models

[Jevo]

Page 200 folks!

[pgoss11]

Latest 18Z and 00Z models:

The GFDL/HWRF/UKMET/NOGAPs are now on the left of the model guidance evenelope close to Florida or hitting Florida (GFDL), while the GFS/Euro/LGEM models take it more east of Florida.

Looks like we don't have as good of consensus any longer and the spread is starting to widen again.

Wow!! Just got home and didn't realize just how East the models have gone. Is there any new data to think they may trend west again?

[CronkPSU]

that was the joke but he was in the right/wrong spot for katrina...

[pgoss11]

Latest 18Z and 00Z models:

The GFDL/HWRF/UKMET/NOGAPs are now on the left of the model guidance evenelope close to Florida or hitting Florida (GFDL), while the GFS/Euro/LGEM models take it more east of Florida.

Looks like we don't have as good of consensus any longer and the spread is starting to widen again.

Wow!! Just got home and didn't realize just how East the models have gone. Is there any new data to think they may trend west again?

[gatorcane]

Here is another look. You can see the models splitting with one camp over Florida or very near it and another one more east with a north movement at 78W through the Central and Northern Bahamas

[Blown Away]

Does the 00z models have the upper air data from the recon?

[CDO62]

Would be pretty bad if the models make a significant shift west into the gulf.not saying that will happen but u never know what'll happen once it leaves hispanola.

Where do you live Bella?

[chris_fit]

Does the 00z models have the upper air data from the recon?

Yes they will... they start at 11:30pm EST with the GFS

[Rgv20]

I think for the 11pm EDT track forecast, a blend of the 18zGFS,18HWRF, and 12zECMWF would be a good way to go which would bend the track a tad to the left.

What do you guys think?

[chris_fit]

I think for the 11pm EDT track forecast, a blend of the 18zGFS,18HWRF, and 12zECMWF would be a good way to go which would bend the track a tad to the left.

What do you guys think?

I think the track will stay the same up until 27N then it will be a tad east

[ronjon]

Here's the animtaed run of 18z HWRF. Shows hurricane force winds along the coast from WPB up to JAX.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2011082218-irene09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Nimbus]

The highest resolution model the HWRF is backing up the GFDL only 50 miles off the east coast of Florida. Tomorrow afternoon they will have to start making decisions in south Florida for the 48 hour warnings, doubt we will be able to settle on a final track tonight.

With this looking more and more like it will intensify into a major hurricane with unusually large wind fields they could issue hurricane warnings even with the eyewall missing the coast. That way you get the TS and Cat 1 zone people evacuated then if the track moves further west Wednesday night you up the intensity and move the cat 2 zone people out.

[PTrackerLA]

Still think these shifts left are quite minimal. I'd expect the NHC to show more of a NNE curve in their 11pm track update. Not buying the GFDL at all as it's been horrible so far this season. In my opinion I think this storm gives the SE a big scare but mainly just clips eastern NC. I'd be extremely concerned if I were in the outer banks at this point. I base this off the fact that the storm continues to move somewhat north of even the current forecast points. Not sure what happens after that though...

*NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST

[Jevo]

I think for the 11pm EDT track forecast, a blend of the 18zGFS,18HWRF, and 12zECMWF would be a good way to go which would bend the track a tad to the left.

What do you guys think?

Regarding the 11PM track with the 18z model data I would speculate that the NHC keeps it where its at.. There isnt a huge rush right now to put up any watches or warning for the CONUS until Tues 5pm I would think... They willl wait for the 0z data and if anyone is going to bump a forecast track it's going to be Stewart @ 5am...

[stormhunter7]

New Recon VDM... 981 mb

removed... wrong forum

[Blown Away]

Here is another look. You can see the models splitting with one camp over Florida or very near it and another one more east with a north movement at 78W through the Central and Northern Bahamas

So do you think they have the upper level data ahead of the storm to go ahead and start the NE bend near Carolinas or is the ridging strong enough to block it and allow a CONUS landfall???

[underthwx]

If Irene hypothetically intensifies encountering the Gulfstream, she may defy the current model trends as a much bigger storm? Do the models take into account the size of the cyclone? This is not a forecast, or meant to be indicitave of Irenes future path or strenth. It is meant as a hypothetical question for the pros.

[Stephanie]

Here's the animtaed run of 18z HWRF. Shows hurricane force winds along the coast from WPB up to JAX.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2011082218-irene09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Looks like a buzz-saw.

[SouthDadeFish]

How is the the TVCN so far east? The only model east of it is the GFS. Every other major model is right next to it or west of it...

[chris_fit]

FWIW, the 00z NAM will be running shortly....

Here is the final forecast point of the 18z run. Lets see if it goes left or right of it.



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