ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

[wxman57]

Pre-Arlene in 2005

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_s ... N-837W.jpg

Same region, but quite different upper-level flow.

[TheBurn]

2015Z

[JonathanBelles]

Here's a current sat pic with obs. Ignore the 110kt wind in the Turks/Caicos islands. Broad weak low with 10-15 kt winds. Still a good bit of shear impacting it, as is evident by the wide spread in the BAM models. I agree with the 80% chance of it NOT developing. Something to keep an eye on. If it was to develop, a track to the N to NNE is most likely.

Image omitted

I'm curious why you are saying N to NNE movement. The early models and NHC/HPC are showing movement to the west or west-north west. Steering currents also show W movement is likely.

[Hurricane]

Here's a current sat pic with obs. Ignore the 110kt wind in the Turks/Caicos islands. Broad weak low with 10-15 kt winds. Still a good bit of shear impacting it, as is evident by the wide spread in the BAM models. I agree with the 80% chance of it NOT developing. Something to keep an eye on. If it was to develop, a track to the N to NNE is most likely.

N to NNE????????

[SouthDadeFish]

When you look at the big picture, it seems to wrapping up slowly. I'm impressed with today's improvements.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-rgb.html

[cycloneye]

18z Surface Analysis



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[gatorcane]

I see a distinct spin south of Jamaica. Just needs to mix out some of that mid-level dry air. Good moisture feeding it from the south. Looks like it may be on it's way to our first named system if this keeps up.

[gatorcane]

18z NAM:

[NDG]

After looking at all reliable models from 12z, I think this system will slowly gather strength to become our first named tropical system in a couple of days or so. I do not see wind shear at this time to affect 94L much if it stays in the general area, the only thing going agaisnt it if it wraps in some of the drier air in the NW Caribbean, but as long as it continues to get an inflow from the Pacific side like it has been doing moisture supply may not be a problem.
Global models show 94L to not move much during the next 72 hrs as it is in an area of very little steering, as ridging starts building from the east and ridging starts building in the FL Peninsula into the Carolinas in 72-168hrs, I believe it will gradually start moving WNW to NW, after 144/168hrs is anybody's guess if the weakness in the ridge will be in the central gulf coast or in the FL Peninsula, if at all.

Nice upper level anticyclone ridge setting up right on top of the low pressure center, providing excellent outflow.

[MGC]

These initial model runs are useless IMO.....have to wait to see where and if the LLCC forms up and give the models a few more runs.......MGC

[Hylian Auree]

Woah, it's improved so much since yesterday.
At this rate we could be seeing a depression by early next week

[flwxwatcher]

These initial model runs are useless IMO.....have to wait to see where and if the LLCC forms up and give the models a few more runs.......MGC

I agree, the earlier model runs were initialized further SW then where the TPC has 94L now. Interesting to see how the 0Z Model runs turn out.

[gatorcane]

18z gfs does not develop this low...and moves the low into Central America now.

That is interesting because it is showing that the upper-level winds are favorable for development for the next several days into next week across the western and central Caribbean.

[Jevo]

Well at least we have something to talk about this weekend.. and I get to use my snazzy new grapic

94L

[cycloneye]

94L now has a floater.

[wxman57]

I'm curious why you are saying N to NNE movement. The early models and NHC/HPC are showing movement to the west or west-north west. Steering currents also show W movement is likely.

You didn't read my statement closely enough. I agree with the NHC that it's not likely to develop. Because of this, we're forecasting a W-WNW movement for now - because it is NOT forecast to develop. As I said, if it DOES develop then mid to upper-level SW flow should steer it northward, not to the west, as evident by the BAMM/BAMD. NHC isn't forecasting such movement to the N-NNE because they're not forecasting it to develop (only 20% chance).

[BigB0882]

I'll take it if it stays relatively weak, we need some rain!

[JonathanBelles]

Maybe I am taking words out of context, but the NHC has said in numerous TWO that conditions are expected to improve beyond the product validity (beyond 48 hours) which may lead to intensification, but in the given wind/wave products the low continues westward through 72 hours. The steering winds fall apart the stronger the cyclone gets, what ever it may get to if it does, if it remains where it is now. With the current strength it would slowly move west though, and if it were to intensify it would move into an area with stronger western steering.

Not criticism, but rather more of a question in my mind given the products I have to work with.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO=Up to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ROUGHLY A HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
JAMAICA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KIMBERLAIN



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[SouthDadeFish]

Note how the NHC says environmental conditions are now generally conducive for development. The anticyclone is finally beginning to truly establish itself over the system. And they did not say anything about dry air this time. Still not expecting anything to happen quickly.