WPAC: MEARI [Falcon] - Remnants

#41 Postby **ManilaTC** » Mon Jun 20, 2011 2:51 pm

This should be a TD now.

#42 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Jun 20, 2011 3:26 pm

I think once daylight hits they will upgrade it...I never see them upgrade it over night it seems

#43 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Jun 20, 2011 3:27 pm

JUST UPGRADED according to JMA!!!

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 11N 135E WNW 10 KT.

KWT · #44 Postby **KWT** » Mon Jun 20, 2011 3:41 pm

Interesting system, looks kinda borderline with regards to the LLC but I suppose if its not a TD now it will be pretty soon...

ECM does develop this system as well.

#45 Postby **supercane** » Mon Jun 20, 2011 5:42 pm

TXPQ25 KNES 202106
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)
B. 20/2032Z
C. 10.9N
D. 132.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSRE
H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
20/1631Z 10.9N 133.4E AMSRE
...SCHWARTZ

12Z model guidance:

#46 Postby **supercane** » Mon Jun 20, 2011 6:09 pm

TXPQ25 KNES 202106
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)
B. 20/2032Z
C. 10.9N
D. 132.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSRE
H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
20/1631Z 10.9N 133.4E AMSRE
...SCHWARTZ

12Z model guidance:

#47 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Jun 20, 2011 6:12 pm

supercane you have a link for that model guidence it wont show up on my computer..thanks

#48 Postby **supercane** » Mon Jun 20, 2011 6:56 pm

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gplou/emchurr/glblgen/tcgif/track.all.2011062012.tc_wpac_ll.single.png

#49 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Jun 20, 2011 7:10 pm

Thank you!

#50 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Jun 20, 2011 7:36 pm

I am guessing at 11am when JTWC updates their stuff it will be upgraded to a depression that is just my opinion though

#51 Postby **supercane** » Mon Jun 20, 2011 8:10 pm

If so, they are not showing their hands with the 00Z satellite bulletin:
TPPN11 PGTW 210033
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (NE OF PALAU)
B. 20/2332Z
C. 11.4N
D. 131.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LOG10 YIELDS A .20 WRAP,
RESULTING IN 1.0 DT. MET AGREES. PT CAME TO 1.5. DT USED TO
DETERMINE FT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SMITH

BTW, did not mean to post twice above.

#52 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Mon Jun 20, 2011 8:16 pm

StormingB81 wrote:I am guessing at 11am when JTWC updates their stuff it will be upgraded to a depression that is just my opinion though

100% agreed, I just made a video (uploading again) and I kind of eluded through the whole thing that is upgraded.. In another hour we will have an ASCAT pass, waiting on that and if it gets good coverage then I think we will have the answer.

#53 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Jun 20, 2011 8:32 pm

All Models still have it in and around Okinawa this weekend..going to have to keep an eye on it for sure

#54 Postby **ManilaTC** » Mon Jun 20, 2011 8:51 pm

RobWESTPACWX wrote:
StormingB81 wrote:I am guessing at 11am when JTWC updates their stuff it will be upgraded to a depression that is just my opinion though

100% agreed, I just made a video (uploading again) and I kind of eluded through the whole thing that is upgraded.. In another hour we will have an ASCAT pass, waiting on that and if it gets good coverage then I think we will have the answer.

Does the Windsat pass not count:

#55 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Mon Jun 20, 2011 9:06 pm

WIndsat does not give a clear picture of the center of circulation though.

#56 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Mon Jun 20, 2011 9:07 pm

Video just uploaded, watch this system go to TS now...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLOOclBtykU[/youtube]

#57 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Jun 20, 2011 9:22 pm

guess I was wrong on my 1100 prediction..not the first wont be the last...lol

#58 Postby **supercane** » Mon Jun 20, 2011 9:25 pm

Two ASCAT views from OSI and STAR. Clear circulation, but mostly to the southeast of the main convection and with most of the strong winds well to the NE of the circulation (?associated with trades or with pressure gradient between 99W and upper low to the NE):

#59 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Jun 20, 2011 9:28 pm

Anyone elses NRL messing up?

#60 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Jun 20, 2011 9:33 pm

ALso..does this storm area seem big to you guys..it seems wider and bigger then most typhoons I have seen...or is that just me?

WPAC: MEARI [Falcon] - Remnants

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