ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Evil Jeremy]

It's rare when you see a TWO with absolutely nothing negative, no hindering aspects. This literally is the "all systems go" of TWOs.

The vorticity has migrated to the WNW over the past 3 hours. The overall vorticity envelope has stayed generally the same, but it's highest concentration jumped a bit.

3 hours ago:



Now:


There's also some SAL in front of 91L, anyone think that might be a factor later on?

[KWT]

With regards to the SAL, notice there is quite alot of convection in the way of that and the systems formative low pressure, so for now I don't think its that much of an issue, but something to keep an eye on, maybe something that could keep the system from going too crazy?

I think the E.Caribbean islands need to keep a close eye on this, the models are keen on there being a trough to lift it out of the E.Caribbean but its still rather early days in that respect and things do and can change.

[MississippiWx]

The jump to the north in vorticity is probably related to it removing itself from the ITCZ.

[KWT]

Yep thats probably the case, these sorts of systems nearly always appear to jump NW when they break off from the ITCZ.

Will be interesting to see how the weakness in the ridge behaves, pattern is rather close to what we had last year in that respect...so Ne Caribbean needs to keep watch IMO...

might get tasking for recon soon...

[cycloneye]

Oh boy!

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 290615
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC FRI JUL 29 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912011) 20110729 0600 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110729  0600   110729  1800   110730  0600   110730  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     8.5N  41.0W    9.2N  42.7W   10.2N  44.9W   11.6N  47.8W
BAMD     8.5N  41.0W    9.1N  43.2W   10.0N  45.6W   11.2N  48.1W
BAMM     8.5N  41.0W    9.1N  42.9W   10.0N  44.8W   11.1N  47.1W
LBAR     8.5N  41.0W    9.2N  43.5W   10.3N  46.3W   11.7N  49.1W
SHIP        25KTS          34KTS          44KTS          55KTS
DSHP        25KTS          34KTS          44KTS          55KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110731  0600   110801  0600   110802  0600   110803  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.9N  50.9W   14.6N  57.3W   16.0N  63.3W   17.1N  68.6W
BAMD    12.3N  50.9W   13.9N  56.2W   14.9N  60.8W   16.8N  64.2W
BAMM    12.1N  49.8W   13.3N  55.2W   14.1N  60.4W   16.1N  64.7W
LBAR    13.1N  52.0W   15.1N  57.1W   16.4N  61.2W   16.9N  66.0W
SHIP        67KTS          88KTS         101KTS         107KTS
DSHP        67KTS          88KTS         101KTS         107KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   8.5N LONCUR =  41.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =   8.2N LONM12 =  38.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =   7.9N LONM24 =  35.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[cycloneye]

This morning's discussion of 91L by Rob of Crown Weather Services

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Of much more concern is a fairly well organized tropical disturbance, labeled Invest 91-L by the National Hurricane Center. Invest 91-L was located this morning over the central Atlantic about 1200 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Given the overall look of this system and the fact that environmental conditions are fairly conducive to development, I think we will see development into a tropical depression and then a tropical storm by Sunday and Monday. In fact, I will be bold and say that this system could very well become our first hurricane of the 2011 Hurricane Season.

Everyone across the Leeward and northern Windward Islands need to go over their hurricane disaster kits today as this system could be affecting you by Tuesday as a hurricane. Also, if you have family and friends in the Leeward and northern Windward Islands, let them know that they may have a hurricane threat on Tuesday.

After passing the Leeward Islands, it’s tough to say where it will go given that it is up to 5 to 7 days away, however, this system has the potential to be a threat to Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the Bahamas.

This is a system that I will be monitoring throughout this weekend and into next week and I will keep you all updated.

[AHS2011]

I can already feel Hurricane Earl 2.0 coming......anyone else agree? Meaning East Coast threat next week.

[hipshot]

Another question for the board. How do these invests get numbered and what does
"invest" mean. Is it an acronym for something?

Thanks

[TheEuropean]

Another question for the board. How do these invests get numbered and what does
"invest" mean. Is it an acronym for something?

Thanks

Have a look here:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A20.html

All areas of interest on every ocean worldwide are numbered as such "invests".

[perk]

I can already feel Hurricane Earl 2.0 coming......anyone else agree? Meaning East Coast threat next week.

I agree with the hurricane part of your post, but it is way too early to say where the threat will be.

[gatorcane]

Se bahamas at 168 hours

[cycloneye]

OSCAT of last night around 10:30 PM EDT. Yikes!

[Scorpion]

Wow, finally something interesting to watch! Seems like an exact re-run of Emily 2005 at the moment

[Cainer]

Doesn't look to be much stopping this from developing in the next couple days. And I thought my prediction of 3 storms in July was looking so good lol.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I would guess that 91l will be either out to sea or a Carolina threat. East coast trough setting up. From what I remember reading. You need a trough to evacuate the tropics to sort of like a restart. I think I read something like that on JB site when he was with Accuweather.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DON LOCATED ABOUT 195 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

GFDL!

[perk]

I would guess that 91l will be either out to sea or a Carolina threat. East coast trough setting up. From what I remember reading. You need a trough to evacuate the tropics to sort of like a restart. I think I read something like that on JB site when he was with Accuweather.

Way too early to make that call, lets give it 4 or 5 days and i think we will have a much better handle on 91L.

[Gustywind]

For our friends in the islands,we have to start preparations from tommorow,as it seems this system will not evade us.

Waouw Cycloneye, that does not sound good if this trend continues. Something to keep an eye.

[cycloneye]

For our friends in the islands,we have to start preparations from tommorow,as it seems this system will not evade us.

Waouw Cycloneye, that does not sound good if this trend continues. Something to keep an eye.

Especially if you see what GFDL has at the models thread. I already started preparations in anticipation of the last minute rush.