jlauderdal wrote:T'Bonz wrote:Our local met (Miami) has mentioned this (before it was an invest) for 2 evenings now. This is unusual, as they usually don't mention stuff that doesn't seem to be coming our way or that is far away.
Channel 7?
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jlauderdal wrote:T'Bonz wrote:Our local met (Miami) has mentioned this (before it was an invest) for 2 evenings now. This is unusual, as they usually don't mention stuff that doesn't seem to be coming our way or that is far away.
Channel 7?
CrazyC83 wrote:KWT wrote:What i will say is the large circulation isn't a good thing at all, both the system and the US.
Will mean it will take a while to pull itself together, esp given the huge area of weak/moderate SAL to the north/west of the system...
Don't expect anything berfore 55-60W....but no doubt this one has got to be really closely watched.
A weaker storm draws southward. That would more likely send it towards, or even south of, the islands.
BatzVI wrote:Last I saw the ULL to the north was supposed to weaken and move to the N...what kind of effect would that have if it pans out?
Aric Dunn wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:KWT wrote:What i will say is the large circulation isn't a good thing at all, both the system and the US.
Will mean it will take a while to pull itself together, esp given the huge area of weak/moderate SAL to the north/west of the system...
Don't expect anything berfore 55-60W....but no doubt this one has got to be really closely watched.
A weaker storm draws southward. That would more likely send it towards, or even south of, the islands.
whats interesting is that although that is normally the case. the models this time... either weak or strong still mostly pull it north of hispanola. the can be seen in the well established steering flow in both the low and mid levels. a wnw track should happen even as a wave. although the extent of the wnw motion would be more pronounced if it were stronger do to rotational effects of the circulation.
Aric Dunn wrote:
whats interesting is that although that is normally the case. the models this time... either weak or strong still mostly pull it north of hispanola. the can be seen in the well established steering flow in both the low and mid levels. a wnw track should happen even as a wave. although the extent of the wnw motion would be more pronounced if it were stronger do to rotational effects of the circulation.
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BatzVI wrote:What is the feeling for the northern islands? Seems everyone is worried about SFla already....I know it's early, so monitoring for now..
KWT wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:
whats interesting is that although that is normally the case. the models this time... either weak or strong still mostly pull it north of hispanola. the can be seen in the well established steering flow in both the low and mid levels. a wnw track should happen even as a wave. although the extent of the wnw motion would be more pronounced if it were stronger do to rotational effects of the circulation.
nopt sure thats really the case, model models take it right through hispaniola or just east, its really only the ECM that goes north of the islands and even then its a VERY close call with Hispaniola.
Much depends on where the exact center tries to develop.
Aric Dunn wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:KWT wrote:What i will say is the large circulation isn't a good thing at all, both the system and the US.
Will mean it will take a while to pull itself together, esp given the huge area of weak/moderate SAL to the north/west of the system...
Don't expect anything berfore 55-60W....but no doubt this one has got to be really closely watched.
A weaker storm draws southward. That would more likely send it towards, or even south of, the islands.
whats interesting is that although that is normally the case. the models this time... either weak or strong still mostly pull it north of hispanola. the can be seen in the well established steering flow in both the low and mid levels. a wnw track should happen even as a wave. although the extent of the wnw motion would be more pronounced if it were stronger do to rotational effects of the circulation.
canes04 wrote:Looks like Irene in the making. Should be an interesting 7 to 10 days ahead of us.
I know Florida has dealt with Irene in the past, but this time it may be alot different.
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