ATL: IRENE - Models

[northjaxpro]

Brian Norcross made an excellent point just now on the Weather Channel. He pointed out that although Irene may past east of the FL peninsula, because of the massive size and strength of the cyclone, even the western side of the system, which normally is the weaker side of a tropical cyclone, could pose problems. It is very possible thjat the western side of Irene in this particular case could very possibly impact the FL East Coast with signifcant effects even with the eye passing up to 100 miles off the coast. This is another reason why people along the FL East Coast like me should by no means take their focus and attention off this situation;

This is why I do think sometime tomorrow or by tomorrow night the NHC may post tropical storm watches for a significant portion of the FL East Coast.

[lonelymike]

Great surfing

[HurricaneBelle]

Brian Norcross made an excellent point just now on the Weather Channel. He pointed out that although Irene may past east of the FL peninsula, because of the massive size and strength of the cyclone, even the western side of the system, which normally is the weaker side of a tropical cyclone, could pose problems. It is very possible thjat the western side of Irene in this particular case could very possibly impact the FL East Coast with signifcant effects even with the eye passing up to 100 miles off the coast. This is another reason why people along the FL East Coast like me should by no means take their focus and attention off this situation;

This is why I do think sometime tomorrow or by tomorrow night the NHC may post tropical storm watches for a significant portion of the FL East Coast.

Made that point this morning:

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111515&p=2169885&hilit=#p2169885

[Bocadude85]

one of them bounced off the southern coast of reggae land a few years ago, that system was doing everything it could to keep its fuel source...tropical systems are land haters for sure[/quote]

hahaha I remember that one - which one was that? Was churning west, then all of a sudden tiptoed around Jamaica, then resumed west motion![/quote]


Hurricane Ivan

[TheShrimper]

00Z TVCM has swung farther east/ Avoids SC and is headed toward Northern NC coastline.

Its on the SFWMD website page.

Jim, that was Ivan you are speaking of. Musta not liked the smell of what was burning there in the mountains.

[MWatkins]

Dont think there is a 18z for the NOGAPS, only 12z and 00z

Yep, there is an 18Z, although not all of the model sites download the data for some reason.

It did come left from the previous run. Little closer to FL on this run.

BTW keep up the good work on the model images, Chris! Really appreciate the updates, I am reading them and not looking at the actual model pages...

MW

[jlauderdal]

one of them bounced off the southern coast of reggae land a few years ago, that system was doing everything it could to keep its fuel source...tropical systems are land haters for sure

hahaha I remember that one - which one was that? Was churning west, then all of a sudden tiptoed around Jamaica, then resumed west motion![/quote]


Hurricane Ivan[/quote]

bingo, good memory...it was at least two bounces, correct?

[Canelaw99]

jlaud - get that generator fired up!! Isn't that what has been keeping these storms away so far?

on topic - Holy crap! Trends, please go back east...WAYYYY east, please

too early for the voodo stuff but maybe tomorrow...trend is working against us now, thats the way these things can go when converging on an outcome

Unfortunately, many of the models have had it in for us since the beginning. I seem to recall a couple (few?) that had S FL under the gun while Irene was merely a wave. Tomorrow will be an interesting day around here, for sure! Good luck my friends...

Now, to see what the 00z models hold tonight...few more hours still.

[Ivanhater]

This is the model thread. Keep general discussions about Irene in the discussion thread.

[eastcoastFL]

Im not too familiar with the NAM or HWRF, how reliable are they? I just don't see how they can't have us in warning or even a watch with the entire bahamas in a cane watch...

Furthermore the models that are showing a westward trend are the ones that have the most updated dated. I cant wait to see what the NHC thinks if they load up the other models with the same data and get a westward trend as well. This is the kind of stuff that makes a case for doing away with the 5day cone. The hospitals could be busy enough if a storm hits nevermind having an influx of cardiac arrests due to a weeks worth of flopping models!

[Weatherboy1]

They should since Grand Bahama has a hurricane watch and we have nothing 60 miles away.

Well given the shift left I wouldn't be surprised if a TS watch goes up as of 5 am tomorrow for at least part of the east coast of FL. If the 00 models shift even more then I'd bet on a hurricane watch instead

[gatorcane]

00z NAM did not initialize well, too far south.

[Canelaw99]

TWC though definitely keeps mentioning South FL is by no means out of the woods. Interesting they keep emphasizing that.

Cantore is really implying sfl is in danger without saying so and countering the cone.

I thought I was catching that from him as well. At least they're reminding people that S FL is still IN the cone. Our local news, for the most part, is providing the info and moving on. It will be a rude awakening for S FL folks if things shift majorly at 5am....

[SouthDadeFish]

00Z NAM at 15 hours:

[deltadog03]

Looks like its taking its sweet time down there.

[Jevo]

00z NAM did not initialize well, too far south.

The NAM is garbage with tropical cyclones.. Keep an eye on the synoptics

[Hurricaneman]

If it were to get to the nam position at 12hr, it would have to drift southwest, garbage run

[eastcoastFL]

The GFS,GFDL and HWRF all take it into florida or at least skim the coast. The Nogaps keeps it off the coast but has a massive storm still bringing rain and wind to the east coast

[SouthDadeFish]

Large weakness at 21 hours on 00Z NAM:

[tgenius]

The GFS,GFDL and HWRF all take it into florida or at least skim the coast. The Nogaps keeps it off the coast but has a massive storm still bringing rain and wind to the east coast

I don't get how all those models are taking it into FL if everything was so shifted east? the GIV data isn't in these runs yet right?