ATL: IRENE - Models

[Meteorcane]

The GFS,GFDL and HWRF all take it into florida or at least skim the coast. The Nogaps keeps it off the coast but has a massive storm still bringing rain and wind to the east coast

I don't get how all those models are taking it into FL if everything was so shifted east? the GIV data isn't in these runs yet right?

I only think the GFDL actually takes it to Florida, the GFS is quite far away actually.

[CrazyC83]

The GFS,GFDL and HWRF all take it into florida or at least skim the coast. The Nogaps keeps it off the coast but has a massive storm still bringing rain and wind to the east coast

NOGAPS is usually the worst model anyway.

[eastcoastFL]

Im not good with my z time but i just saw the 18z gfdl bringing a cat 3 into ftl.

[Patrick99]

What's the impact, if any, of the "Texas Death Ridge" on this system? Right now I see it very well-defined and a strong channel of NW flow around it and into the trough, coming off the GA/SC/NC coast - what's expected to change with that? What are the models doing with it, maybe nudging it eastward and flattening it out a bit?

[eastcoastFL]

The GFS,GFDL and HWRF all take it into florida or at least skim the coast. The Nogaps keeps it off the coast but has a massive storm still bringing rain and wind to the east coast

I don't get how all those models are taking it into FL if everything was so shifted east? the GIV data isn't in these runs yet right?

I am not sure. HEre is the link to the models. http://tc.met.psu.edu/

[Meteorcane]

Im not good with my z time but i just saw the 18z gfdl bringing a cat 3 into ftl.

It is the most recent run, but at the moment is still a considerable outlier, I would really pay more attention to the 00z runs (due to the fact they have upper air data in them)

[eastcoastFL]

The GFS,GFDL and HWRF all take it into florida or at least skim the coast. The Nogaps keeps it off the coast but has a massive storm still bringing rain and wind to the east coast

I don't get how all those models are taking it into FL if everything was so shifted east? the GIV data isn't in these runs yet right?

I only think the GFDL actually takes it to Florida, the GFS is quite far away actually.

Here is the link to the 18z gfdl http://tc.met.psu.edu/

It makes landfall around jupiter

[eastcoastFL]

Im not good with my z time but i just saw the 18z gfdl bringing a cat 3 into ftl.

It is the most recent run, but at the moment is still a considerable outlier, I would really pay more attention to the 00z runs (due to the fact they have upper air data in them)

\\Thanks, I wasn't sure how old it was but its all I could find for models and they all but 1 bring it pretty close to Florida with 2 making actual landfalls.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I would think the NHC will have to shift the track to the west a bit.. I mean the time frame for people in Fla to prepare is getting shorter and shorter...

Smart folks in Florida are already prepared. We are after all in the cone. Nobody that knows me has written it off. I reaaaaaly hoped the trough would dig deeper than it did and this AM when I saw the models all moving east I brought myself down from my heart attack level but I sure remained vigilant.

[SouthDadeFish]

00Z NAM at 33 hours:

[shaggy]

The GFS,GFDL and HWRF all take it into florida or at least skim the coast. The Nogaps keeps it off the coast but has a massive storm still bringing rain and wind to the east coast

I don't get how all those models are taking it into FL if everything was so shifted east? the GIV data isn't in these runs yet right?

They're not only the GFDL shows landfall for Florida. The GFS is pretty good disyance off the coast and the HWRF is 50-75 miles offshore or so.

[tolakram]

Please don't bother posting images if you don't use imageshack to make copies, they're useless in a few hours and certainly useless after Irene is gone. Please reference this thread: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111268

[tgenius]

The GFS,GFDL and HWRF all take it into florida or at least skim the coast. The Nogaps keeps it off the coast but has a massive storm still bringing rain and wind to the east coast

I don't get how all those models are taking it into FL if everything was so shifted east? the GIV data isn't in these runs yet right?

They're not only the GFDL shows landfall for Florida. The GFS is pretty good disyance off the coast and the HWRF is 50-75 miles offshore or so.

Right..but eastcoastFL was saying GFS and HWRF were as well... so I was just trying to get clarification.

[MGC]

18Z GFDL moves Irene west into DR....doubt this happens. GFDL appeares too far south thus forecasting Irene to impact Florida.....MGC

[SouthDadeFish]

Please don't bother posting images if you don't use imageshack to make copies, they're useless in a few hours and certainly useless after Irene is gone. Please reference this thread: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111268

The images i posted have a specific date in the URL....

[eastcoastFL]

The GFS,GFDL and HWRF all take it into florida or at least skim the coast. The Nogaps keeps it off the coast but has a massive storm still bringing rain and wind to the east coast

I don't get how all those models are taking it into FL if everything was so shifted east? the GIV data isn't in these runs yet right?

They're not only the GFDL shows landfall for Florida. The GFS is pretty good disyance off the coast and the HWRF is 50-75 miles offshore or so.

The hwrf is very close to the coast and it brings hurricane force winds to the east coast of fl. and the gfs also brings it close enough to the coast to provide a significant even along our coast.

[bamajammer4eva]

Have to wait and see but Stewart who does the 5am discussion likes gfdl

[SouthDadeFish]

The 00Z NAM isn't showing much of a second trough through 42 hours.... Keeps Irene between Cuba and the Bahamas.

[eastcoastFL]

Right..but eastcoastFL was saying GFS and HWRF were as well... so I was just trying to get clarification.[/quote]


when i ran it, it was coming right on the coast making landfall. I just ran it again and it looks like it just falls apart so I apologize for any confusion its looking funny now.

[gatorcane]

The ridge is stronger in the 00z NAM.

Notice the 321 isobar near Bermuda