ATL: IRENE - Models

[eastcoastFL]

I just ran it again and it worked better. The hwrf brings the center of irene (a massive storm) to 79.6 W. The east coast of florida runs basically parallel with 80w until around martin county from northern dade/south broward.

[gatorcane]

The ridge is stronger in the 00z NAM.

Notice the 321 isobar

Bumping

[GTStorm]

The ridge is stronger in the 00z NAM.

Notice the 321 isobar near Bermuda

Is the 318 isobar the ridge that is up for debate?

[Kohlecane]

So honestly someone let me no The odds of this hitting somewhere in SC
Please someone reply back im like the local Meteorologist to all my buddies in Charleston, so im really up in the air at this point

[SouthDadeFish]

54 hours on the 00Z NAM:



Trough still weak so far.

[sittingduck]

Will all the data from the samplings taken earlier be in the 00Z runs?

[KBBOCA]

The ridge is stronger in the 00z NAM.

Notice the 321 isobar

Am I correct in thinking a stronger ridge would diminish chances for a sooner northern turn and thus likely push the storm a bit further west, i.e. closer to S. Florida?

[bamajammer4eva]

The ridge is stronger in the 00z NAM.

Notice the 321 isobar

[img]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/00/images/nam_700_042l.gif

Bumping

smaller gap there

[Bocadude85]

Hmm looks like the NAM may miss Fla to the east this run...?

[Tampa_God]

The ridge is stronger in the 00z NAM.

Notice the 321 isobar

Am I correct in thinking a stronger ridge would diminish chances for a sooner northern turn and thus likely push the storm a bit further west, i.e. closer to S. Florida?

Well, if Irene doesn't take a NNW turn from NAM model, this will be a S. FL or skimming the East of the state no doubt.

[psyclone]

So honestly someone let me no The odds of this hitting somewhere in SC
Please someone reply back im like the local Meteorologist to all my buddies in Charleston, so im really up in the air at this point

you're going to get a complete new forecast package and track from the nhc in a half hour.

[SeminoleWind]

The ridge is stronger in the 00z NAM.

Notice the 321 isobar

Am I correct in thinking a stronger ridge would diminish chances for a sooner northern turn and thus likely push the storm a bit further west, i.e. closer to S. Florida?

that would be the case yes sir, just remember we are talking about the NAM which is more for looking at the over all pattern rather than things like intensity

[Vortex]

00Z NAM H60 just south of Andros



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

[Special K]

What time EST will the next significant model runs occur?

[SouthDadeFish]

The 63 hour 00Z NAM has the ridges bridging

[Canelaw99]

How many runs is that now where the NAM bridges them? It's a bunch, that's for sure. Crappy model, yeah yeah, but as many have said on here, it's good at overall synoptics. Something to watch???

[BensonTCwatcher]

just have to see where this trough or weakness ends up at 72+ hours. Not digging much so far. Want to see what NHC says about the guidance at 11.

[bamajammer4eva]

Closer to miami at 00z 63 h vs 18z 69 h

[SeminoleWind]

What time EST will the next significant model runs occur?

gfs should be starting to run soon you can go here and check it out

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

[SouthDadeFish]

That trough on the 00Z NAM still looks fairly weak.