ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[lostsole]

This kinda off subject, but S2K really needs to change the colors of the hurricane cats, 3 and 4 are almost completely indistinguishable from each other, perhaps a more purple for cat 4? or maybe start at green for depression, yellow for TS light orange cat 1 cat 2 orange cat 3 red cat 4 purple and cat 5 white? Or at least something so we can tell what is what on the forecast.

[Aric Dunn]

I expect a more west turn today for a short time while The southern inflow becomes trapped on the mountains. Should still be close enough for this to occur.

[SENClander]

For those of you who are saying they are breathing a sigh of relief. I would still pay close attention. I remember Diana '84 who passed us by off the coast and then stalled just NE of us. A day later she decided to take the backdoor into our house. Never let your guard down until she is truly gone!! Diana actually looped around and came in at Cape Fear.

[wxman57]

are those white dots where the center is? and also what are the white dots?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

Looks like they're bad data points.

[artist]

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT15 KNHC 231349
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 06 20110823
133900 1835N 06721W 3926 07689 0375 -153 -165 261027 029 /// /// 03
133930 1836N 06723W 3927 07688 0374 -154 -162 247025 026 /// /// 03
134000 1837N 06726W 3926 07689 0375 -151 -154 247029 031 /// /// 03
134030 1838N 06728W 3925 07698 0380 -152 //// 232023 027 /// /// 05
134100 1839N 06730W 3928 07692 0380 -149 -153 259027 032 /// /// 03
134130 1840N 06733W 3924 07700 0381 -154 //// 250030 034 /// /// 05
134200 1841N 06735W 3929 07688 0383 -150 -165 267025 029 /// /// 03
134230 1842N 06737W 3923 07704 0382 -150 //// 265017 020 /// /// 05
134300 1844N 06738W 3931 07684 0380 -148 //// 253023 027 /// /// 05
134330 1846N 06740W 3928 07693 0380 -149 -160 259027 028 /// /// 03
134400 1848N 06742W 3926 07694 0380 -150 -155 248032 033 /// /// 03
134430 1849N 06743W 3929 07689 0379 -161 -175 246033 036 /// /// 03
134500 1851N 06745W 3925 07698 0380 -159 -170 240034 035 /// /// 03
134530 1853N 06746W 3928 07693 0381 -151 -159 236031 033 /// /// 03
134600 1855N 06748W 3926 07693 0380 -151 //// 225028 031 /// /// 05
134630 1857N 06750W 3923 07699 0377 -154 //// 233032 036 /// /// 05
134700 1857N 06752W 3931 07683 0377 -147 //// 230025 028 /// /// 05
134730 1857N 06755W 3920 07704 0376 -154 //// 232017 022 /// /// 05
134800 1857N 06757W 3930 07683 0375 -154 -156 229012 014 /// /// 03
134830 1857N 06800W 3927 07687 0373 -152 -168 218010 013 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Nikki]

This kinda off subject, but S2K really needs to change the colors of the hurricane cats, 3 and 4 are almost completely indistinguishable from each other, perhaps a more purple for cat 4? or maybe start at green for depression, yellow for TS light orange cat 1 cat 2 orange cat 3 red cat 4 purple and cat 5 white? Or at least something so we can tell what is what on the forecast.

Those are the colors that the NHC chose so S2K has nothing to do with the colors chosen. I agree they are hard to read sometimes.

[artist]

obs 6

[Meteorcane]

This kinda off subject, but S2K really needs to change the colors of the hurricane cats, 3 and 4 are almost completely indistinguishable from each other, perhaps a more purple for cat 4? or maybe start at green for depression, yellow for TS light orange cat 1 cat 2 orange cat 3 red cat 4 purple and cat 5 white? Or at least something so we can tell what is what on the forecast.

Those are the colors that the NHC chose so S2K has nothing to do with the colors chosen. I agree they are hard to read sometimes.

What do you mean those are the colors the NHC chose?

[wxman57]

Of course, everyone along the east coast of Florida should remain vigilant. But this isn't a situation where steering currents are expected to weaken. That's a fairly deep trof digging down the East U.S. Coast now, even stronger than the models were forecasting. It's not the type of situation where we'd likely see Irene stall or turn west.

With the added G-IV data (and another flight today) all the models have come to very good agreement on a track through the eastern Bahamas then a turn north and north-northeastward toward the Outer Banks of NC. If Irene deviates from that track, then I think it has a better shot at tracking farther to the east, perhaps with the center not directly impacting the Outer Banks, rather than farther west.

As such, the east coast of Florida will likely see northerly winds of 20-30 mph with some higher gusts on Thursday/Friday as Irene passes 150-200 miles to the east. I'm running SLOSH for eastern NC and am getting around a 9-12 foot storm surge in the area. If Irene was to hit farther south near Wilmington, then the surge could reach 12-14 feet.

[eastcoastFL]

Of course, everyone along the east coast of Florida should remain vigilant. But this isn't a situation where steering currents are expected to weaken. That's a fairly deep trof digging down the East U.S. Coast now, even stronger than the models were forecasting. It's not the type of situation where we'd likely see Irene stall or turn west.

With the added G-IV data (and another flight today) all the models have come to very good agreement on a track through the eastern Bahamas then a turn north and north-northeastward toward the Outer Banks of NC. If Irene deviates from that track, then I think it has a better shot at tracking farther to the east, perhaps with the center not directly impacting the Outer Banks, rather than farther west.

As such, the east coast of Florida will likely see northerly winds of 20-30 mph with some higher gusts on Thursday/Friday as Irene passes 150-200 miles to the east. I'm running SLOSH for eastern NC and am getting around a 9-12 foot storm surge in the area. If Irene was to hit farther south near Wilmington, then the surge could reach 12-14 feet.

I thought the trough that was supposed to move irene out hasn't even developed yet. am i mistaken?

[SunnyFla]

Here is central florida on the coast I still have TS conditions forecastfor thursday and friday.

Yes we still have TS conditons in our forecast for Thursday and Friday here in South Florida.

Some high schools in PBC have changed football games and other activities to Wednesday night from Friday night to avoid the t/s expected conditions. There is talk of school closing as school buses cannot be on road when winds are 40mph sustained.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231359
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 07 20110823
134900 1858N 06803W 3929 07683 0371 -149 //// 240025 027 /// /// 05
134930 1858N 06805W 3926 07679 0364 -148 //// 247028 030 /// /// 05
135000 1858N 06807W 3925 07693 0374 -149 //// 248031 033 /// /// 05
135030 1858N 06810W 3926 07696 0377 -152 //// 255029 031 /// /// 05
135100 1858N 06812W 3925 07693 0377 -150 //// 256025 026 /// /// 05
135130 1858N 06814W 3934 07688 0386 -148 //// 242022 026 /// /// 05
135200 1858N 06817W 4101 07391 0378 -134 //// 237024 026 /// /// 05
135230 1858N 06820W 4289 07038 0352 -119 -120 238026 030 /// /// 03
135300 1859N 06822W 4463 06730 0327 -103 //// 237022 024 /// /// 05
135330 1859N 06825W 4635 06443 0311 -081 -112 260011 015 /// /// 03
135400 1900N 06827W 4851 06088 0291 -061 -078 222009 011 /// /// 03
135430 1901N 06829W 5050 05769 0270 -046 -063 221015 017 /// /// 03
135500 1902N 06832W 5238 05479 0249 -032 -040 224020 021 /// /// 03
135530 1903N 06834W 5431 05183 0223 -014 -021 209024 025 /// /// 03
135600 1905N 06836W 5651 04866 0022 +006 -006 203026 028 /// /// 03
135630 1906N 06838W 5889 04531 0047 +012 //// 206033 035 /// /// 05
135700 1907N 06840W 6114 04236 0054 +034 +008 211037 038 /// /// 03
135730 1908N 06842W 6358 03917 0059 +050 +018 202035 035 /// /// 03
135800 1910N 06844W 6605 03605 0068 +062 +053 195037 037 /// /// 03
135830 1911N 06846W 6867 03284 0071 +076 +067 191037 038 /// /// 03
$$
;

[eastcoastFL]

Local Wellington Forecast from NOAA:

Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of showers after 2pm. Sunny, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 102. Breezy, with a east wind 5 to 8 mph increasing to between 13 and 16 mph. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.

Wednesday Night: A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 80. Breezy, with a northeast wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday: Tropical storm conditions possible. A 50 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 89.

Thursday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. A 50 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 78.

[EDR1222]

Maybe some of the experts can chime in. Does that big blob of convection that kind of sprung up off the Southeast coast of the Carolina's have a chance to have any impact on the track of Irene, perhaps causing a recurve away from everybody ?

Just curious.

[wxman57]

I thought the trough that was supposed to move irene out hasn't even developed yet. am i mistaken?

The trof is there now, and it's quite deep. And there's another wave over Minnesota that will be dropping down the east coast in the next few days to further enhance the east coast trof and turn Irene off to the NNE.

[artist]

[wxman57]

Maybe some of the experts can chime in. Does that big blob of convection that kind of sprung up off the Southeast coast of the Carolina's have a chance to have any impact on the track of Irene, perhaps causing a recurve away from everybody ?

Just curious.

Yes, and no. The blob of thunderstorms - no. But that blob of thunderstorms is along the leading edge of a deepening upper-level trof that Irene is going to run up against in a few days. That's the trof which will keep Irene well east of Florida and cause it to recurve north of 30N.

[HurrMark]

Of course, everyone along the east coast of Florida should remain vigilant. But this isn't a situation where steering currents are expected to weaken. That's a fairly deep trof digging down the East U.S. Coast now, even stronger than the models were forecasting. It's not the type of situation where we'd likely see Irene stall or turn west.

With the added G-IV data (and another flight today) all the models have come to very good agreement on a track through the eastern Bahamas then a turn north and north-northeastward toward the Outer Banks of NC. If Irene deviates from that track, then I think it has a better shot at tracking farther to the east, perhaps with the center not directly impacting the Outer Banks, rather than farther west.

As such, the east coast of Florida will likely see northerly winds of 20-30 mph with some higher gusts on Thursday/Friday as Irene passes 150-200 miles to the east. I'm running SLOSH for eastern NC and am getting around a 9-12 foot storm surge in the area. If Irene was to hit farther south near Wilmington, then the surge could reach 12-14 feet.

What are your thoughts about the Northeast (NY and New England)?

[Ev1948]

I know this might be a dumb question, we are new to FL, 2 years, and have not experienced all this before, should we still put the hurricane shutters up and take everything off the porch, we have our supplies etc and are ready in the other ways. We are on the east coast, Sebastian FL.

[wxman57]

Here is central florida on the coast I still have TS conditions forecastfor thursday and friday.

Yes we still have TS conditions in our forecast for Thursday and Friday here in South Florida.

Some high schools in PBC have changed football games and other activities to Wednesday night from Friday night to avoid the t/s expected conditions. There is talk of school closing as school buses cannot be on road when winds are 40mph sustained.

I agree TS conditions are possible, but they're becoming less likely. Most likely you'll see northerly winds at 20-30 mph along the east coast of Florida with a few higher gusts to maybe 40-45 mph possible.