WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[oaba09]

Before I go to sleep, here's an update from PAGASA...

PAGASA is still sticking w/ a landfall as off 11 PM local time(1500z)



Typhoon "CHEDENG" has intensified further.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 310 km East Northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar

Coordinates: 13.2°N, 127.6°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 185 kph

Movement: Northwest at 15 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Thursday evening:
190 km East of Baler, Aurora
Friday evening:
In the vicinity of Tuguegarao
Saturday evening:
90 km Northwest of Basco, Batanes

[RobWESTPACWX]

Looks like Manilla is getting prepared for this, the outer rain bands really could cause some flooding in the Metro area. The article below notes that they are gearing up.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/9152/mmda- ... g%E2%80%99

[rednas]

Some places in Manila is already flooded - and the ground has already absorbed a lot of water before Chedeng even makes landfall. We've been experiencing heavy rains in the afternoons for days.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Looks like models are coming in to agreement of Songda going SE of Honshu. Great news!

[ManilaTC]

Looks like models are coming in to agreement of Songda going SE of Honshu. Great news!

But Okinawa is gonna get creamed!

[HURAKAN]

very impressive today

[cycloneye]

JMA 18:45 UTC=90kts

TY 1102 (Songda)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 25 May 2011
<Analyses at 25/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N13°50'(13.8°)
E127°10'(127.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 26/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°10'(16.2°)
E125°35'(125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 27/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°25'(20.4°)
E124°20'(124.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 28/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°10'(24.2°)
E126°30'(126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area Wide 520km(280NM)

[HURAKAN]

continues to get better organized

[phwxenthusiast]

a report talking about the differences in forecasts between PAGASA and the other's said that mets make their own Judgement Calls too and just wanna be safe than sorry..

this is a good quote from the article:
"In contrast, PAGASA is using a host of prediction models, satellite imagery and radar technologies in determining specific characteristics of a typhoon, according to Rene Paciente, PAGASA forecaster, in a phone interview with GMA News Online.

While the agency also uses a number of numerical weather prediction models—the latest of which is the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model acquired in September 2010—it combines other data from satellites and doppler radars as well to make a final prediction.

"We also have weather maps, where we look at the upper levels of the atmosphere. Sometimes [the conditions in these levels] dictate the direction of the typhoon," Paciente said.

He said the agency also uses doppler radars—positioned in Subic, Baguio, and Aurora—to measure the amount of rainfall, the location of the center of the typhoon, and its windspeed.

Paciente stressed, however, that Typhoon Chedeng is currently too far off the range of the radar in Baler, Aurora, which requires a distance of 400 kilometers for atmospheric data to be picked up."

source: http://www.gmanews.tv/story/221674/tech ... -forecasts

[HURAKAN]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 930.5mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.6 6.6

[Extratropical94]

NRL 18Z: SONGDA - 937 mbar - 115 knots - 13.8N, 127.2E

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 13.8N 127.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 127.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.3N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.1N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.1N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.6N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 26.8N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 31.5N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 34.3N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 127.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RAGGED EYE AND A 251735Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 115
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE, HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST IS LIMITING POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
FLOW. TY 04W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS AS AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CHINA, DIGS SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS
THE STEERING RIDGE. TY 04W SHOULD BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES AFTER PASSING OKINAWA, JAPAN AND WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 96. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES DIFFERENCES IN TRANSLATION SPEED. THE ECMWF MODEL
IS SLOWER AND THE NOGAPS IS FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS WITHIN THE INITIAL
72 HOURS, BUT THEN FASTER IN THE LATER TAUS WHEN SEVERAL MODELS LOSE
THE SYSTEM DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z,
261500Z AND 262100Z.//
NNNN

[oaba09]

[StormingB81]

What a difference a night makes...went to bed last night said cat 3 possibly here now it says cat 2 wit hwinds of 100mph gusting to 120...guess we still have to watch see what it does.

[dhoeze]

Sun is out here at Manila... Winds too calm... We pray to keep us all(Manila, East Coast of Luzon, and all the way to Japan) away from the danger that Songda may bring. Cat 4.... wow....
God Bless!!! Thank You Storm2k Gurus for keeping us posted and all the info provided.

[StormingB81]

Well I will be out for the day and I will be on tonight local time. See what the forecast says then! have a good one! It is hard when a typhoon hasn't hit here in so long everyone thinks they will all miss and noone prepares because they all say it will turn....this one may open the eyes of people!

[Infdidoll]

What a difference a night makes...went to bed last night said cat 3 possibly here now it says cat 2 wit hwinds of 100mph gusting to 120...guess we still have to watch see what it does.

Yeah, I saw that on Weather Underground's graphic. Weakening from a Cat 4 to a Cat 2 before it even hits us, but JTWC's coordinates put it weakening at 72 hrs out at 26.8N 128.2E which is the northern tip of Okinawa, where the water temperatures really start cooling down rapidly. I'd still prepare for the worst. Looks like it could be the biggest one since Man-Yi (2007). That seems to be the one everyone is still talking about here.

[rdhdstpchld]

What a difference a night makes...went to bed last night said cat 3 possibly here now it says cat 2 wit hwinds of 100mph gusting to 120...guess we still have to watch see what it does.

Yeah, I saw that on Weather Underground's graphic. Weakening from a Cat 4 to a Cat 2 before it even hits us, but JTWC's coordinates put it weakening at 72 hrs out at 26.8N 128.2E which is the northern tip of Okinawa, where the water temperatures really start cooling down rapidly. I'd still prepare for the worst. Looks like it could be the biggest one since Man-Yi (2007). That seems to be the one everyone is still talking about here.

Infidoll - i was just looking at Man-Yi last night -- wiki has a good graphic of that summer season of storms - went up the west coast. I'm thinking the ginormous pine outside my house was there then, and is still here now...so other than that thing falling on my house, I think I'm not too worried; just got to get my $hit cleaned up outside (times when you miss having a man around the house!) -- so now it's looking like up the eastern shore, but also like Okinawa is going to drop it from cat 4 to cat 2...I just want to keep power....I can live with the rest of it....LOL!

[HURAKAN]

25/2032 UTC 14.4N 126.8E T6.5/6.5 SONGDA -- West Pacific

127 kts

[HURAKAN]

very impressive