ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[jlauderdal]

This may very well end up farther west than originally expected!

West of 81 at least

[WxEnthus]

TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF EMILY INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS ONLY SLIGHT
EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES...AND SINCE THE CENTER LOCATION IS
QUITE UNCERTAIN IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW FAR THE CENTER IS
EMBEDDED INTO THE DENSE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST. CONSEQUENTLY...
OBTAINING A RELIABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATE VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE IS
PROBLEMATIC. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY AROUND 1200 UTC AND SHOULD GIVE A
BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE. RADIOSONDE DATA
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN STATIONS SHOW SOME UNFAVORABLE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 300 MB JUST BELOW THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW LEVEL. MOREOVER...AS NOTED EARLIER...SOME DRY AIR IS
PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF EMILY. IN A FEW
DAYS...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THESE LARGE-SCALE FACTORS...THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKEN EMILY TO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING INTERRUPTED BY THE
INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA...BUT NO LONGER BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO
HURRICANE INTENSITY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR MOST RELIABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL LGEM.

SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A
RATHER UNCERTAIN 280/14. THE STORM SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE FLOW
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR A DAY OR SO. AS A TROUGH
JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST WEAKENS THE RIDGE...A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST...WITH THE ASSUMPTION OF A
DEEPER VORTEX MOVING THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A MUCH MORE WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE
SHALLOW VORTEX OR TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MAINLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THE GFS AND ECMWF. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EMILY WILL BE AND HOW STRONG IT WILL BE IN
3 TO 5 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 15.5N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 16.2N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 17.0N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 17.8N 70.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 18.7N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/0600Z 22.5N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/0600Z 26.0N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 30.0N 80.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

They don't seem too sure where the center is at this point (no mention of what happened to the scheduled overnight recon). New track drops the hurricane intensity at the end, but just barely, keeping it at a very strong TS @ 70mph. I'm a bit confused by the part that says this track is slightly to the left of the previous one... it looks substantially shifted to the right (east) to me compared to all the previous tracks.

[Huckster]

I don't often post anything here. This tropical storm is not the first tropical cyclone I have watched and tracked, along with the trends concerning it. My memory is not perfect, but it seems to me that it was not many days ago there was a great deal of fear and angst that this system (a wave at the time) might actually develop into a hurricane and pose a threat to the northernmost of the Lesser Antilles. Then the threat shifted so that Porto Rico might be threatened by the possible storm moving over the island. Nevertheless, the storm would still recurve; the chances of a direct impact on the continental US were viewed as something quite unlikely but possible. Now that the system has been officially named, the only thing predictable is that this storm is unpredictable in both track and intensity.

I am not a meteorologist, physicist, or mathematician, but I can observe things and remember at least some of what I have seen and integrate that into which I know. This storm continues to fool all of us and it would be a great folly for anyone to arbitrarily forecast that a certain area will necessarily be spared while another be decimated. The various models are for guidance, not for ascertaining what is a definite threat and what is not. Numbers do not lie, but lying numbers can do just that because of wrong or incomplete data.

[ronjon]

00z HWRF 3 km Run:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noaahfiptc2.cgi?time=2011080200-emily05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[xironman]

The center is bolting toward 65W and will pass it near the 16.4 latitude. It is way out ahead of the deep convection. Right on NHC trop points and track. Watch out if this thing co-locates.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yeah, it looks like it is out there, way out ahead of the main convection, though it looks like it is building some now

[Vortex]

First vis should shed some light regarding the center....Overall from 24 hours ago-what a difference!

[xironman]

The old style shortwave is pretty good
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/flash-ir2.html
And PR radar shows the twist
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
Both time sensitive

[dwsqos2]

This is pretty much Erika '09 redux IMO; formed in a similar area; same issue with 300 mb winds; same issues with SHIPS missing this due to how 850-200 mb shear is calculated by the model. Couple that with the gfs and euro that suggest dissipation relatively soon, I would bet that dissipation over the course of the next 48 hours is more likely than any intensification.

It doesn't matter if there is an anticyclone at 200 mb if
northwest winds at 300 mb are undercutting it.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[blazess556]

Observation 2


000
URNT15 KNHC 021014
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 02 20110802
100430 1742N 06448W 9970 00075 0077 +256 +202 073018 024 /// /// 03
100500 1742N 06447W 9701 00349 0097 +239 +202 077022 027 /// /// 03
100530 1742N 06445W 9348 00680 0107 +212 +202 083027 027 /// /// 03
100600 1742N 06444W 8963 01057 0114 +191 //// 093032 033 /// /// 05
100630 1742N 06443W 8585 01423 //// +169 //// 099034 036 /// /// 05
100700 1742N 06441W 8206 01809 //// +161 //// 101035 036 /// /// 05
100730 1742N 06440W 7883 02156 //// +152 //// 096035 037 /// /// 05
100800 1742N 06438W 7542 02517 //// +135 //// 097036 038 /// /// 05
100830 1742N 06437W 7287 02810 //// +116 //// 098034 035 /// /// 05
100900 1742N 06435W 7035 03109 //// +101 //// 096031 033 /// /// 05
100930 1741N 06434W 6959 03201 //// +094 //// 091028 029 /// /// 05
101000 1740N 06432W 6939 03222 //// +095 //// 089029 029 /// /// 05
101030 1740N 06431W 6949 03211 //// +095 //// 089029 029 /// /// 05
101100 1739N 06429W 6947 03211 //// +095 //// 091028 029 /// /// 05
101130 1738N 06428W 6948 03213 0080 +099 //// 089028 028 /// /// 05
101200 1737N 06426W 6947 03217 0080 +099 //// 092028 029 /// /// 05
101230 1737N 06425W 6946 03214 0080 +096 //// 096030 031 /// /// 05
101300 1736N 06423W 6943 03216 0082 +095 //// 092031 032 /// /// 05
101330 1735N 06422W 6946 03216 //// +093 //// 088031 032 /// /// 05
101400 1735N 06421W 6948 03213 //// +094 //// 087032 033 /// /// 05
$$
;

[xironman]

I was thinking Ernesto, just because that was a very frustrating storm to track.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Nimbus]

Big burst of convection this morning. Wonder if that means Emily will slow down and start moving WNW? The easterlies caused Emily to run out from under her convection yesterday and that has left her initialized a lot further south and west. Hope the NHC can forecast an accurate 36 hour cone once todays recon data gets into the models.

[cycloneye]

For the record,the 5 AM advisory.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

...EMILY CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 64.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY...AND
APPROACH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
UNTIL EMILY INTERACTS WITH LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES
LATER TODAY...AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER
THIS MORNING...AND IN HAITI BY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF EMILY INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS ONLY SLIGHT
EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES...AND SINCE THE CENTER LOCATION IS
QUITE UNCERTAIN IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW FAR THE CENTER IS
EMBEDDED INTO THE DENSE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST. CONSEQUENTLY...
OBTAINING A RELIABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATE VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE IS
PROBLEMATIC. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY AROUND 1200 UTC AND SHOULD GIVE A
BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE. RADIOSONDE DATA
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN STATIONS SHOW SOME UNFAVORABLE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 300 MB JUST BELOW THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW LEVEL. MOREOVER...AS NOTED EARLIER...SOME DRY AIR IS
PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF EMILY. IN A FEW
DAYS...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THESE LARGE-SCALE FACTORS...THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKEN EMILY TO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING INTERRUPTED BY THE
INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA...BUT NO LONGER BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO
HURRICANE INTENSITY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR MOST RELIABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL LGEM.

SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A
RATHER UNCERTAIN 280/14. THE STORM SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE FLOW
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR A DAY OR SO. AS A TROUGH
JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST WEAKENS THE RIDGE...A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST...WITH THE ASSUMPTION OF A
DEEPER VORTEX MOVING THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A MUCH MORE WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE
SHALLOW VORTEX OR TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MAINLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THE GFS AND ECMWF. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EMILY WILL BE AND HOW STRONG IT WILL BE IN
3 TO 5 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 15.5N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 16.2N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 17.0N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 17.8N 70.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 18.7N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/0600Z 22.5N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/0600Z 26.0N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 30.0N 80.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[USTropics]

First visible satellite image of the day. Looks like the LLC is on the western side of the convection.

[jdray]

Looks like a David scenario, hopefully she doesn't pull a Donna and ride the spine of the state.

[cycloneye]

This mornings discussion of Emily by Rob of Crown Weather.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

[wzrgirl1]

This mornings discussion of Emily by Rob of Crown Weather.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

This discussion confuses me even more because it really goes from one extreme to the other.....mentions a possible decoupling to a possible hurricane and leaves the reader wondering. I guess what this teaches me is to be prepared for all scenarios.

[jlauderdal]

Looks like a David scenario, hopefully she doesn't pull a Donna and ride the spine of the state.

keep it weak, under 50 and it would be great, we could use a drought buster, bring it

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe has just backoff the orange code cyclone to yellow code cyclone...meaning that the direct threat of Emily is over now . For info, this morning between 0H30 AM and 1H30 AM our friend HUC from Basse-Terre... reports winds from SE and gusts near 90KM/H during a strong squall line.
Whereas the very rough sea and the tstorm activity continues in our area but hopefuflly on a decreasing trend. No reports of big damages in Guadeloupe only minor things like branchs, a few trees falling on the roads. Good news for us nothing too bad. We continue to keep an eye on the showers, the sea and the tstorm activity even if things should improve steadily .

[GCANE]

Yes, convection is far removed from the LLC and is firing ESE of the center.

Cloud tops also seem to be warming a bit as well.

Wind field still looks like a minimal TS with the southern flank barely closed off.

I wonder if she will struggle again, over the course of the day, today.

I am a bit skeptical about the forecast track at this point.

[knotimpaired]

Guadeloupe has just backoff the orange code cyclone to yellow code cyclone...meaning that the direct threat of Emily is over now . For info, this morning between 0H30 AM and 1H30 AM our friend HUC from Basse-Terre... reports winds from SE and gusts near 90KM/H during a strong squall line.
Whereas the very rough sea and the tstorm activity continues in our area but hopefuflly on a decreasing trend. No reports of big damages in Guadeloupe only minor things like branchs, a few trees falling on the roads. Good news for us nothing too bad. We continue to keep an eye on the showers, the sea and the tstorm activity even if things should improve steadily .

Keep safe Gusty, let us know if you need anything. It appears as of now at least PR is going to be spared.