HurricaneWarning92 wrote:what i find interesting is the Storm2k graphic map still has S FL in the cone while the NHC doesn't... so on one site i'm in the cone, but on the other im not.. should i watch this? im confused.
In the first place,
the cone should not be the determinant as to whether anyone should make preparations for possible impact. The cone is merely a region that defines the 5-year 67th percentile track error. This means that of all the NHC forecasts over the past 5 years (2006-2010), the CENTER of the storms stayed within that cone area 67% of the time.
The cone
IS NOT a good indicator of the potential impact area from a hurricane, meaning you're not considered "safe" if you're outside the cone. Even if a hurricane's center tracks right down the middle of the cone, its tropical storm force winds can extend well outside the cone. Same goes for the hurricane winds at times. Your location could be outside the cone and still receive hurricane conditions and a major tidal increase, as was the case with the Louisiana coast with Ike's cone.
So don't judge yourself safe if you're outside the cone. Pay attention to what the local NWS office and the NHC are saying regarding potential impact and make your decisions accordingly.
In your case (Florida), the projected winds are going to be less than tropical storm strength, probably only 20-30 mph along the east coast. So you're going to be fine there as long as Irene behaves.
