ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[CajunMama]

We love seeing our forum so active and we try to keep the active storm threads flowing...please remember...

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[AdamFirst]

Emily just getting into Goes E Conus range which is running in rapid scan mode.

Live Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Code: Select all

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=16&lon=-65&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=90&numframes=15

Nice find. Looks to be getting healthier by the second.

[Aric Dunn]

That is a long lived convective burst near/ over the center. the center itself is re-organizing closer to that hence the recon fixes dropping back south some. but that over all convection has been moving west at a pretty good clip.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[underthwx]

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-n/RS ... wtnt01.gif



U.S.Navy......Good morning everyone!

[artist]

not surprised at all the models came back west for 00z.. the riding was stronger than 18z had and the west motion of the storm had to be accounted for. a continued west shift is likely

Actually the 12z plots just came and the Bams along with TCVN shifted futher eastward. I expect another eastward shift to the tpc track @11am

[

my understanding is the BAM models are best used in the deep tropics, which with passing the islands was within the criteria to not pay as much attention to them.
I double checked with AIr Force Met -

BAM models are best left in the deep. It assumes the system moves with the GFS winds and drifts towrds the poles with Coriolis force....more force for stronger storms...deeper flow for stronger storms.

[Aric Dunn]

anyone really take notice of how large the error cone is.. lol.. eastern gulf to SC lol

[KWT]

Wouldnt the farther east posistion of Emily cause Emily to make her turn to the NW further east and thus reduce the risk to the US?

Possibly but remember it also got relocated SOUTH a little as well, so probably won't make a huge difference in the long run unless its a big adjustment to the east.

Models still aiming at Hispaniola...for now...beyond that and the Bahamas/Florida seems at highest risk.

[Gustywind]

[jonj2040]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[jlauderdal]

anyone really take notice of how large the error cone is.. lol.. eastern gulf to SC lol

accuweather is usually at least 2x error cone of nhc, im not kidding, i would love to see their verification stats, be like hitting the lottery almost every time you play

[Aric Dunn]

not surprised at all the models came back west for 00z.. the riding was stronger than 18z had and the west motion of the storm had to be accounted for. a continued west shift is likely

Actually the 12z plots just came and the Bams along with TCVN shifted futher eastward. I expect another eastward shift to the tpc track @11am

[

my understanding is the BAM models are best used in the deep tropics, which with passing the islands was within the criteria to not pay as much attention to them.
I double checked with AIr Force Met -

BAM models are best left in the deep. It assumes the system moves with the GFS winds and drifts towrds the poles with Coriolis force....more force for stronger storms...deeper flow for stronger storms.

exactly.. which is why they start to bounce all over the place the farther north U go.

[AtlanticWind]

not surprised at all the models came back west for 00z.. the riding was stronger than 18z had and the west motion of the storm had to be accounted for. a continued west shift is likely

Actually the 12z plots just came and the Bams along with TCVN shifted futher eastward. I expect another eastward shift to the tpc track @11am

[

my understanding is the BAM models are best used in the deep tropics, which with passing the islands was within the criteria to not pay as much attention to them.
I double checked with AIr Force Met -

BAM models are best left in the deep. It assumes the system moves with the GFS winds and drifts towrds the poles with Coriolis force....more force for stronger storms...deeper flow for stronger storms.

BAMS wont be used for the track by the NHC .They will go by the global models ,also Gfdl, Hrwf.

[GCANE]

Emily just getting into Goes E Conus range which is running in rapid scan mode.

Live Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Code: Select all

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=16&lon=-65&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=90&numframes=15

That is looking pretty dang good.

[Aric Dunn]

Wouldnt the farther east posistion of Emily cause Emily to make her turn to the NW further east and thus reduce the risk to the US?

Possibly but remember it also got relocated SOUTH a little as well, so probably won't make a huge difference in the long run unless its a big adjustment to the east.

Models still aiming at Hispaniola...for now...beyond that and the Bahamas/Florida seems at highest risk.

Yeah the relocation may not be over yet either. the convection seems to be still on the south side of the center. Also the riding to the north is still holding. and if you look at the motion of the overall convection its still steady westerly.

[LaBreeze]

Looks like this is an East Coast storm - certainly not a Gulf storm. TWC seems to be fairly certain on their latest report on television that it's headed to the Atlantic. What is expected to pull it north or at least to make that right hand turn so early?

[Bad_Hurricane]

URNT15 KNHC 021344
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 23 20110802
133430 1611N 06335W 9771 00282 //// +230 //// 108035 036 /// /// 05
133500 1613N 06335W 9774 00279 //// +225 //// 106035 036 /// /// 05
133530 1615N 06335W 9769 00287 //// +225 //// 105037 038 /// /// 05
133600 1615N 06337W 9768 00285 //// +227 //// 098034 036 036 001 05
133630 1614N 06338W 9766 00287 //// +231 //// 100031 033 035 001 01
133700 1613N 06340W 9776 00278 //// +231 //// 102034 037 037 002 01
133730 1613N 06342W 9769 00283 //// +230 //// 102036 037 037 001 05
133800 1612N 06344W 9773 00279 //// +222 //// 100034 036 038 001 01
133830 1611N 06345W 9766 00286 //// +231 //// 100031 032 036 005 01
133900 1611N 06347W 9771 00281 //// +233 //// 102031 033 036 003 01
133930 1610N 06349W 9777 00275 //// +235 //// 105032 033 035 002 01
134000 1610N 06350W 9772 00280 //// +233 //// 107032 033 036 003 01
134030 1609N 06352W 9765 00285 //// +234 //// 104031 032 036 003 01
134100 1608N 06354W 9769 00281 //// +235 //// 107032 033 037 002 05
134130 1608N 06356W 9772 00278 //// +236 //// 108032 033 036 001 05
134200 1607N 06357W 9773 00276 //// +236 //// 108031 034 034 003 05
134230 1606N 06359W 9776 00272 //// +235 //// 105032 033 033 001 01
134300 1606N 06401W 9773 00275 //// +236 //// 103032 032 036 002 01
134330 1605N 06403W 9768 00279 //// +238 //// 104031 032 036 002 05
134400 1604N 06404W 9773 00274 //// +235 //// 101031 032 036 001 01
$$
;

[KWT]

Core convection moving due west, not sure if the LLC is doing likewise but it has slowed down somewhat at last.

Center IMO still slightly on the NW side of the convection but its looking abit better again.

[Bad_Hurricane]

URNT15 KNHC 021354
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 24 20110802
134430 1604N 06406W 9768 00279 //// +231 //// 101032 032 035 002 01
134500 1603N 06408W 9772 00274 //// +235 //// 098033 033 035 002 01
134530 1603N 06408W 9772 00274 //// +239 //// 096032 033 035 002 01
134600 1602N 06411W 9771 00275 //// +237 //// 097029 031 /// /// 05
134630 1600N 06411W 9768 00276 //// +235 //// 097030 031 034 002 05
134700 1559N 06410W 9771 00274 //// +235 //// 100028 029 036 001 01
134730 1559N 06409W 9769 00276 //// +236 //// 100028 030 035 000 05
134800 1558N 06408W 9767 00279 //// +234 //// 099025 027 033 001 05
134830 1557N 06407W 9772 00273 //// +237 //// 102021 022 031 003 01
134900 1556N 06406W 9770 00275 //// +237 //// 102019 021 032 001 01
134930 1555N 06405W 9768 00277 //// +236 //// 107019 019 034 002 01
135000 1554N 06404W 9772 00274 //// +238 //// 111018 019 035 004 01
135030 1553N 06403W 9773 00272 //// +229 //// 103017 017 031 005 05
135100 1551N 06402W 9768 00277 //// +226 //// 102018 018 032 005 01
135130 1550N 06402W 9772 00273 //// +229 //// 104017 018 031 004 01
135200 1548N 06401W 9771 00274 //// +228 //// 102017 018 029 002 05
135230 1547N 06401W 9775 00269 //// +233 //// 092015 016 028 002 01
135300 1545N 06401W 9769 00274 //// +236 //// 094014 016 026 003 01
135330 1544N 06401W 9769 00274 //// +239 //// 094014 016 027 002 01
135400 1542N 06401W 9770 00273 //// +240 //// 092013 013 026 001 01
$$
;

[Bad_Hurricane]

URNT12 KNHC 021350
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052011
A. 02/13:10:50Z
B. 15 deg 26 min N
063 deg 42 min W
C. NA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 071 deg 8 kt
G. 282 deg 16 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 24 C / 306 m
J. 24 C / 304 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 0505A EMILY OB 10
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 38 KT N QUAD 13:32:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 293 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[wafbwx]

anyone really take notice of how large the error cone is.. lol.. eastern gulf to SC lol

Just remember guys that the size of the cone does NOT change from storm to storm or advisory to advisory...it is fixed. This is one of the most common mistakes I see people make...including unfortunately some 'professional' mets. The cone is based on average errors by the NHC over the last 5 years...essentially the cone shows 2/3rds of the average error for that stretch.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml