ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

I expect another shift eastward on track based on guidance on the next advisory soon.

I agree. Think we will see a slight shift East.. though I wouldnt be shocked to see the track shift east and west the next few days until the models get a better idea on what Emily will do/

Given the 06z models only moved very slightly East overall, mixed with Emily's continued west movement and now uncertain center placement, I think they will hold the current cone. Consistency might be best right now with all the uncertainty.

exactly. The only change would be a west shift early on and the same late in the track.. even the NHC had a slightly N of west motion.. but clearly that has not occurred yet.

[cpdaman]

emily more bark than bite this am

leavin wpb today (SAD) and people are startin to TRY and decipher where the storm is going.

you know what that means. rumors spread based on misheard 30 sec news weather bits "ur not gonna like the forecast" somehow translates into "awful hurricane heading this way for sure" lol

my mom's drivin outta fort. laud area fri to meet sister and flyin outta orlando sat....hopefully the flights aren't delayed.

just checkin in been a while...nice to see the same names here....wishin i could stay another week. STAY SAFE and rationale.

[Blown Away]

I think it is distinctly possible that Emily may ride the southern coast of Hispaniola and move either through the Mona Passage or across Eastern Cuba as it feels the impacts of the trough at around 68 degrees longitude. I think there is enough ridging at the moment to propel the cyclone at that longitude before she slows down and starts to bend more northwest in the next 48 hours.

Just one of several possibilities of course. I still think it is possible that Emily could have a track similar to David in '79.

seems most likely that she will not go north of hispanola. at this point anyway

David slammed right into the heart of Hispaniola and got tangled for a while. IMO, Emily will skim the Hispaniola S coast move over the Haiti Peninsula into the Mona Passage which will keep her away from Hispaniola mainland, but still disrupt the core some.

[SFLcane]

Stair stepping north of DR and Cuba...

[TheBurn]

[jonj2040]

A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 14:08:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°06'N 63°34'W (15.1N 63.5667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 282 miles (454 km) to the SE (144°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 63 nautical miles (72 statute miles) to the NW/NNW (326°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 97° at 31kts (From the E at ~ 35.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles) to the NW/NNW (326°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 306m (1,004ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 290m (951ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the north quadrant at 13:34:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 32kts (~ 36.8mph) in the southeast quadrant at 14:15:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Displacement of Sfc. Center From Flt. Lvl. Center: Surface center is 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NW (310°) from the flight level center
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NW (317°) from the flight level center

[Bad_Hurricane]

URNT15 KNHC 021424
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 27 20110802
141430 1453N 06321W 9769 00286 //// +215 //// 154021 027 /// /// 05
141500 1451N 06320W 9785 00265 //// +204 //// 145028 032 /// /// 05
141530 1451N 06319W 9769 00281 //// +210 //// 133030 032 /// /// 05
141600 1450N 06318W 9765 00285 //// +221 //// 136030 032 /// /// 05
141630 1449N 06317W 9773 00281 //// +220 //// 135032 032 /// /// 05
141700 1448N 06316W 9772 00282 //// +225 //// 141030 030 /// /// 05
141730 1447N 06315W 9773 00284 //// +229 //// 144027 028 /// /// 05
141800 1446N 06314W 9770 00286 //// +235 //// 147026 027 /// /// 05
141830 1445N 06313W 9769 00288 //// +238 //// 146027 028 /// /// 05
141900 1445N 06312W 9758 00300 //// +238 //// 145029 031 /// /// 05
141930 1446N 06311W 9764 00294 //// +237 //// 139034 037 /// /// 05
142000 1448N 06312W 9766 00286 //// +238 //// 140041 042 /// /// 05
142030 1450N 06312W 9774 00282 //// +213 //// 127038 044 /// /// 05
142100 1452N 06312W 9774 00279 //// +207 //// 121035 037 /// /// 05
142130 1453N 06312W 9778 00276 //// +232 //// 122039 040 /// /// 05
142200 1455N 06312W 9772 00281 //// +235 //// 122038 039 /// /// 05
142230 1457N 06312W 9761 00290 //// +234 //// 120038 039 /// /// 05
142300 1459N 06312W 9773 00279 //// +237 //// 122037 039 /// /// 05
142330 1500N 06313W 9768 00285 //// +235 //// 122036 037 /// /// 05
142400 1502N 06313W 9770 00283 //// +234 //// 120036 037 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Bad_Hurricane]

URNT15 KNHC 021434
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 28 20110802
142430 1504N 06313W 9771 00282 //// +235 //// 121036 036 /// /// 05
142500 1506N 06313W 9772 00283 //// +235 //// 121036 036 /// /// 05
142530 1507N 06313W 9771 00283 //// +235 //// 121037 037 /// /// 05
142600 1509N 06313W 9769 00284 //// +235 //// 123038 039 /// /// 05
142630 1511N 06313W 9765 00286 //// +235 //// 122038 038 /// /// 05
142700 1512N 06313W 9774 00277 //// +235 //// 120040 041 /// /// 05
142730 1514N 06313W 9774 00276 //// +233 //// 122041 042 /// /// 05
142800 1516N 06314W 9774 00274 //// +230 //// 121042 043 /// /// 05
142830 1518N 06314W 9772 00278 //// +224 //// 120042 042 /// /// 05
142900 1519N 06314W 9771 00279 //// +228 //// 118043 044 /// /// 05
142930 1521N 06314W 9774 00277 //// +230 //// 119043 045 /// /// 05
143000 1523N 06314W 9773 00278 //// +232 //// 119042 044 /// /// 05
143030 1525N 06314W 9768 00284 //// +233 //// 118041 042 /// /// 05
143100 1526N 06314W 9766 00287 //// +230 //// 116040 042 /// /// 05
143130 1528N 06314W 9767 00287 //// +231 //// 115041 042 /// /// 05
143200 1530N 06314W 9771 00282 //// +234 //// 115042 043 /// /// 05
143230 1531N 06315W 9765 00287 //// +234 //// 115040 041 /// /// 05
143300 1533N 06315W 9770 00284 //// +235 //// 116040 041 /// /// 05
143330 1535N 06315W 9774 00280 //// +234 //// 115041 041 /// /// 05
143400 1537N 06315W 9772 00281 //// +235 //// 113040 042 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

exactly. The only change would be a west shift early on and the same late in the track.. even the NHC had a slightly N of west motion.. but clearly that has not occurred yet.

How many west shifts can they make until the forecasted turn to the north become too steep to be reasonable?

[northjaxpro]

I think it is distinctly possible that Emily may ride the southern coast of Hispaniola and move either through the Mona Passage or across Eastern Cuba as it feels the impacts of the trough at around 68 degrees longitude. I think there is enough ridging at the moment to propel the cyclone at that longitude before she slows down and starts to bend more northwest in the next 48 hours.

Just one of several possibilities of course. I still think it is possible that Emily could have a track similar to David in '79.

So far it is following the Canadian model very closely....all week. Their path is along the Fla West coast and across the state exiting around Jax in five days.

IMO, were it to avoid any of the mountains of Hispanola and/or Cuba, the intensity will have to be increased substantially as that entire area is pretty conducive to growth. Charlie of 04 comes to mind now.

Yeah, I saw the Canadian model earlier too. That scenario you mentioned above with the Canadian model is also a distinct possibilty if Emily somehow managed to go farther west and make the turn more over Central Cuba. That would put the FL peninsula more at risk with impacts from Emily in terms of the possible track. I still am more in favor of this affecting the southern peninsula and east coast side of the state at the present time. But, definitely, the Canadian run is not to be taken lightly for sure.

[caneseddy]

I think it is distinctly possible that Emily may ride the southern coast of Hispaniola and move either through the Mona Passage or across Eastern Cuba as it feels the impacts of the trough at around 68 degrees longitude. I think there is enough ridging at the moment to propel the cyclone at that longitude before she slows down and starts to bend more northwest in the next 48 hours.

Just one of several possibilities of course. I still think it is possible that Emily could have a track similar to David in '79.

seems most likely that she will not go north of hispanola. at this point anyway

David slammed right into the heart of Hispaniola and got tangled for a while. IMO, Emily will skim the Hispaniola S coast move over the Haiti Peninsula into the Mona Passage which will keep her away from Hispaniola mainland, but still disrupt the core some.

It's actually the Windward Passage..Mona is between PR and DR

[underthwx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/ft-l.jpg


lookin healthy........

[KWT]

Yep, also rather slugging motion through the southern Bahamas there.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Posted by: JeffMasters, 8:48 AM GMT on August 02, 2011


Forecasting Emily
Model uncertainty is still high for forecasting Emily's track. The 00Z CMC and NOGAPS global models keep Emily on a western track, before recurving to make landfall on the western coast of Florida. The 00Z HWRF and GFDL dynamic
hurricane models both have Emily approaching the eastern coast of Florida, but recurving sharply to the northeast before making landfall. However, the premier global models, GFS and ECMWF, suggest that forecasters should be very cautious.
The 12Z ECMWF did not get a good representation of Emily in its starting conditions, so the forecast Emily did not gain strength and drifted westwards, missing Hispanola. The 00Z GFS does not have any forecast features that could be reasonably associated with Emily in my judgement. From what I can tell, the GFS moves Emily's circulation over Hispanola and Emily then never has a chance to organize. This is disconcerting since the previous 4 runs of the GFS had produced a reasonably robust tropical cyclone with winds near or just exceeding hurricane strength.

Even though the tracks produced by these models are different in their long-term outlooks, they all suggest that Emily will pass by Hispanola close enough for that island's mountains to impact the storm's winds and thus dampen any intensification. However, the 00Z NAM model does not bring Emily near the island, and keeps it moving westwards into the Caribbean sea as a well-organized storm. This, combined with the widely different solutions discussed previously, suggests that people across the Caribbean and living along the Gulf coast should keep an eye on this storm for the next several days.

I would prefer to make an intensity forecast for Emily after it has cleared the island of Hispanola and it's tall mountains. Many storms have weakened considerably after passing by there, and some have dissipated (TS Cindy in 1993, for example).

In light of this uncertainty, the NHC forecast hasn't changed that much. Emily is forecast to turn towards the northwest, making landfall somewhere in southeastern Florida on Saturday as a weak hurricane. (5AM EDT update NHC has adjusted their forecast to the east, so Emily does not make landfall in the next 5 days. Also, Emily does not reach hurricane strength in this forecast.) Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. A tropical storm watch has been issued for Haiti.


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1866

[SouthFloridawx]

200mb - 700mb flow chart points to in between Hispaniola and Cuba. Unless the strengthening ridge to the north of this weak system erodes.

[jonj2040]

28


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[Aric Dunn]

Latest VDM... south re-formation of almost half a degree..

crazyiness

[Evil Jeremy]

NHC page messing up again, showing Forecast/Advisory 1 with the "Special Advisory" tag lol.

[Ivanhater]

Hurricanefloyd, you need to post a link with your post.

[bigdan35]

at 72hrs the Nam looks like its moving wnw