ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

[TheBurn]

1645Z

[Javlin]

and as the Trof to the NE moves out it looks like the ULL is moving E.The blob may persist but lead to development?my expectations are low.I just hope someone in the GOM realm that needs rain gets it

[tolakram]

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Speed this up. You can see the broad circulation and convection now firing around but some distance from the center of that circulation. Looks like it can't maintain convection, and doesn't look as good as yesterday IMO. Too Juneee

IR LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

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[Dean4Storms]

Shear monster will eat it alive if it even begins to organize. I'm now in the camp of no go! It needed to get its act together yesterday for any chance of TC development.

[HURAKAN]

It probably needs more time than it has. Still, not bad to begin June!

[Extratropical94]

2PM (1800Z) TWO: 50% chance

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN IS MOVING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE CENTER. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN

[wxman57]

More time only means increasing shear. This one is about dead. Development chances less than 10% and dropping. I don't see what Stacey Stewart is looking at. Surface obs don't suggest any organization. Convection is almost nonexistent. Shear will be increasing tomorrow.

[SouthDadeFish]

Where the heck they get 50% from, I have no idea.

[Extratropical94]

I'm kinda wondering why they say that a tropical depression has the chance to form later today.
50% chance for 48 hours is not equal to depression in the next 6-12 hours

[NDG]

I agree with the 2 pm NHC TWO.

[NDG]

You guys forget that most times this time of the year upper level troughs is what helps cyclogenesis to get going before if it gets counter productive for a system.

[Hylian Auree]

Up to 50%. Odd... I had always thought 50% was code red
Convection seems to be firing up to the southwest near the low level center in association with divergence aloft, but I question how significant it will be to development.
Latest:

[cycloneye]

I am a bit shocked,but the tropics many times have surprises.

[SouthDadeFish]

Maybe NHC shouldn't have cancelled today's flight? lol

[TheBurn]

Up to 50%. Odd... I had always thought 50% was code red

I believe Code Red is >50%

[Hylian Auree]

Up to 50%. Odd... I had always thought 50% was code red

I believe Code Red is >50%

Yeah, that does seem logical : P Silly thinking on my part.

[wxman57]

You guys forget that most times this time of the year upper level troughs is what helps cyclogenesis to get going before if it gets counter productive for a system.

Yes, that can happen, but I see no evidence of it happening today. Stewart even agrees that wind shear starts increasing tomorrow, so the development window is very narrow. Without much of an LLC today, and with pressures rising since this morning, and with convection much weaker than yesterday, the chances of development in the next 12 hours are very low. Certainly not 50%. Maybe he meant to say 5.0%?

[GCANE]

Convection is firing inside the inner circle.

If this flares, it could push some of the UL winds radially outward and get the anti-cyclone over it.

In other words, shear may diminish if a strong tower erupts.

[Dean4Storms]

It has almost zilch in the way of model support at 12z, even the CMC gave up on it.

I don't see 50% chance, maybe 20% if it moved southward!

[wxman57]

Here's a long loop I made. No significant convection near the weak LLC, and no increasing convection near the weak LLC. I can see the clouds lifting northward in the last few hours, perhaps a sign of the disturbance beginning to encounter the increasing SW winds aloft? Too weak for a Dvorak analysis. Very little time left to develop.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/94Lloop.gif