ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[ozonepete]

regarding the model tracks, You really need to post some evidence of this. The evidence for a landfall has been posted all day on this thread.

[gatorcane]

OK, so right now she is in an area of weak steering. You can see the mid to upper-level low moving NE away from Maine. That created trough #1 that is stretched out over the Western Atlantic off of the eastern seaboard of the U.S.
That trough is flattening and no longer moving south. You can see that the clouds SE of the Carolinas have basically stopped moving southward...

Now look at that next mid to upper-level low approaching the Great lakes. That is swinging around the northern periphery of the Texas 500MB ("death ridge"). It's going to head across the Great lakes following the other Low moving away from Maine, carrying another trough with it (trough #2). That should reinforce the weakness over the Florida and the Western Atlantic. When that second trough comes through, we should really see Irene gain lattitude....

Check out this WV loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

[Aric Dunn]

well most of the guidance shifted slightly back west in the short term about the same at days 4 and 5.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 1&title=09

[CronkPSU]

OK, so right now she is in an area of weak steering. You can see the mid to upper-level low moving NE away from Maine. That created trough #1 that is stretched out over the Western Atlantic off of the eastern seaboard of the U.S.
That trough is flattening and no longer moving south. You can see that the clouds SE of the Carolinas have basically stopped moving...

Now look at that next mid to upper-level low approaching the Great lakes. That is swinging around the northern periphery of the Texas 500MB ("death ridge"). It's going to head across the Great lakes following the other Low moving away from Maine, carrying another trough with it (trough #2). That should reinforce the weakness over the Florida and the Western Atlantic. When that second trough comes through, we should really see Irene gain lattitude....

Check out this WV loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

thanks for that, very informative

[Aric Dunn]

Not sure about Models - howver, examining the flow of low level clouds out ahead of her - sure looks like that Texas ridge may actually try steering her through the Keys?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html

Was the NAM and GDFL correct ( yesterday)?
What will lift Irene north? Please show us.

This... Over the great lakes right now....

[url=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/577/goes19322011235artx2g.jpg/]http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/8413/goes19322011235artx2g.jpg[url]

Uploaded with [url=http://imageshack.us]ImageShack.us[url]

this is what I have been mentioning. that shortwave your pointing is not dropping south like its supposed to be doing. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

right now Im waiting to see what becomes of it tonight.. right now its moving straight east.

[bella_may]

For those of you not being affected by this storm, check out invest 90L. Looking like it could be another big one!

[WilmingtonSandbar]

What majority of models are suggesting it's going to "recurve out to sea"? The model consensus is still pretty much what the NHC has now for the forecast track which is a hit on NC and then northward trek along the coast. How is that out to sea?[/quote]

I stand corrected. Silly me for not extending the model map northward. I do see a majority of the models shifted off the east coast of North Carolina now.[/quote]

They haven't. They are almost all over eastern N.C., not east of it. Which models are you looking at?[/quote]

If i turn on the models on this map, it looks like all but 3 of them are off the coast of NC.

http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-irene-2011

[mutley]

Not sure about Models - howver, examining the flow of low level clouds out ahead of her - sure looks like that Texas ridge may actually try steering her through the Keys?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html

Was the NAM and GDFL correct ( yesterday)?
What will lift Irene north? Please show us.

This... Over the great lakes right now....

this is what I have been mentioning. that shortwave your pointing is not dropping south like its supposed to be doing. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

right now Im waiting to see what becomes of it tonight.. right now its moving straight east.

You can see the same thing in gatorcane's WV loop. Mostly an eastward component already.

[Nimbus]

lets put it this way. if it does not start moving northerly at a decent clip in lets say the next 6 hours... count on the models to start changing. because it wont make it far enough north for the short wave to pick it up.

It does look like it's pretty close to the NHC track, last few frames looked like a NW wobble, probably overall WNW movement.

you do realize the last 2 VDM were basically on top each other meaning its pretty much stalled ... which was not forecast by any model. it is actually south of the 18z position. not a lot but its also not moving as of late. it cant sit here to long or things will change.

I just looked at the 30 frame version of the whole conus WV . The current trough is still digging down near the Georgia Florida border. That Texas high is pulling these short waves down from up by the Canadian border. The models were counting on the next impulse currently the swirl near Lake Michigan to take Irene up the coast(provided she was far enough north by then). Obviously the first trough is already stretched and won't be there beyond 24 hours so this slowdown could change the models if there is enough ridging between troughs or the second trough doesn't dig.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

[Lannes]

Hello all...long time lurker.

I've been texting back and forth with my best friend who is on the Turks and Caicos now. He's not a weather guy, but he estimates they are getting 40 mph sustained winds on the beach. At any rate, he says it is uncomfortable to stand in the wind for more than a few minutes.

His last text said the waves off shore are getting large enough that they appear to be islands out at sea. Stores are closed and obviously the airport, so they are stuck riding it out at 14.5 feet above sea level.

[Aric Dunn]

interesting.

[DisasterMagnet]

I have to admit being glued to TWC for two days: they just reported 24 ft waves for Turks and Caicos, and 40 ft waves expected for the Bahamas

Could someone please post a potential wave/storm surge height map if one is available? I'm on my mobile so I can't upload/repost images. Thanks so much.

[TheBurn]

3:15 EDT

[wxman57]

Max wind will probably be lowered to 80 kts on the next advisory. It appears that the location of the DR to its south is severely impeding inflow in that direction. It will need to get away from the DR to really get going.

Agreed 100%, what is your take on the near stall? Much speculation on here as to what happens next.

Uh, what stall? I haven't noticed a stall. I measure a 6-hr movement of about 292 deg at 7 kts.

[Lowpressure]

Aric it pretty much shows WNW with do variance.

[Aric Dunn]

Max wind will probably be lowered to 80 kts on the next advisory. It appears that the location of the DR to its south is severely impeding inflow in that direction. It will need to get away from the DR to really get going.

Agreed 100%, what is your take on the near stall? Much speculation on here as to what happens next.

Uh, what stall? I haven't noticed a stall. I measure a 6-hr movement of about 292 deg at 7 kts.

well yes 6 hours motion. last couple hours has just been drifting. per the last two VDM

[bexar]

3:15 EDT

http://img191.imageshack.us/img191/4493 ... 231915.gif

Irene's overall appearance seems to have deteriorated a bit, probably to the shear and dry air intrusion.

I expect wind speeds down to 75 or 80 at 5 PM advisory.

[Lowpressure]

3:15 EDT

http://img191.imageshack.us/img191/4493 ... 231915.gif

Irene's overall appearance seems to have deteriorated a bit, probably to the shear and dry air intrusion.

I expect wind speeds down to 75 or 80 at 5 PM advisory.

Probably not that low due to 978mb for continuity.

[wxman57]

well yes 6 hours motion. last couple hours has just been drifting. per the last two VDM

Don't assume each VDM is taken in the same relative spot within the center.

[wxman57]

3:15 EDT

http://img191.imageshack.us/img191/4493 ... 231915.gif

Irene's overall appearance seems to have deteriorated a bit, probably to the shear and dry air intrusion.

I expect wind speeds down to 75 or 80 at 5 PM advisory.

NHC will go with 80 kts on the next advisory, as told to me by a little birdie.