ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Ivanhater]

GFS breaks the ridge down between days 1-2.

500mb GFS
http://tinyurl.com/3u9aqv8

Looks like it will recurve. Doesn't really do much with it intensity wise either.

Did you look at the entire run so far...it intensified all the way until going over the DR then obviously weakened going over the mountains

[Evil Jeremy]

Ridge stronger in this run after two days than in the 06z.

[CronkPSU]

slowly balling into a fist???

[Sanibel]

If you look closely at the CDO on zoom it has a flat edge to the north. There's weird changes going on to the synoptics/shear surrounding the storm right now. These kind of steering transition bumps usually have a poleward outcome.

[caneseddy]

GFS breaks the ridge down between days 1-2.

500mb GFS
http://tinyurl.com/3u9aqv8

Looks like it will recurve. Doesn't really do much with it intensity wise either.

Did you look at the entire run so far...it intensified all the way until going over the DR then obviously weakened going over the mountains

At 60 hours still over the SE Bahamas and moving WNW

[Ivanhater]

Yep..intensifying again after getting back over water...major change from the previous run of the GFS keeping Emily an open wave.

[JPmia]

The NHC discussion says GFS & EURO dissipate the storm around haiti:

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL
MODELS NO LONGER DEVELOP EMILY...AND IN FACT...BOTH MODELS BASICALLY
DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE NEAR HISPANIOLA.

Is this based of the 12z runs?

Nope..12z run actually makes Emily stronger. The models are just having a tough time.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal030.gif

interesting.. and now based on the 12z runs I'm sure that language will go away lol

[SouthDadeFish]

Banding features may be starting to develop, and it seems the storm as a whole has more of a spin to it:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[Aric Dunn]

60 hours slight bend NW.. but nice ridging sliding off east coast should bend it back next couple hours..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thanks ,

JPmia did not know he was posting good to know.

[joefox11]

Hi, everybody. Just a question. Here in Puerto Rico the government is holding a press conference and the national weather service spokesman said if Emily keeps stationary for 4 or 5 hours, it might get stronger enough to get close to Cat 1. Is that a realistic scenario with this poorly organized system?

He also mentioned that a stronger system might track more to the north. Any thoughts on this?

Thanks!

PS Conditions here in my hometown in the nothern-central part of the island are overcast skies, moderate tp a strong ocassionally breeze. No rain as of right now.

[caneseddy]

At 66 hours, I'm noticing what looks like a low pressure moving off the SE coast around the GA-SC border...there might be a gap there that may allow this to scoot and recurve

[vbhoutex]

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[KWT]

Pretty much keeps a 285-290 motion till hispaniola...then lifts out a little more to the NW but nothing major...

Conditions look good in the Bahamas looking at the models...

[Aric Dunn]

yep 72 hurs bendind back wnw to west.. strong ridging building in

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


well some ridging.. not exactly strong

[KWT]

At 66 hours, I'm noticing what looks like a low pressure moving off the SE coast around the GA-SC border...there might be a gap there that may allow this to scoot and recurve

Weak ridging is aloft at that point though...remember to follow the heights not the pressure

[caneseddy]

78 hours, looks like the gap may have closed with Emily right at the latitude of South Florida..then again I could be wrong

[gatorcane]

It is on a recurve path already on 12Z GFS. I can't see it hitting Florida in this 12Z run, just grazing the eastern Bahamas.

NHC may want to make a another shift right again depending upon the GFDL and HWRF.

The ridging is not there, especially if it is a strong, organized system....

[Aric Dunn]

it will probably slow down then wait for another weakness before turning out..

[caneseddy]

At 84 hours, right at 25N

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal084.gif