ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Ivanhater]

There is ridging sitting over the Carolinas, I'm not sure I buy this continued NW motion the GFS is showing

[SFLcane]

It is on a recurve path already on 12Z GFS. I can't see it hitting Florida in this 12Z run, just grazing the eastern Bahamas.

NHC may want to make a another shift right again depending upon the GFDL and HWRF.

I'd venture to say theres good consensus at the moment between the GFDL/HWRF and GFS on this ugly looking thing staying east of florida.

edit: Turns it back westward..

[Ivanhater]

It is on a recurve path already on 12Z GFS. I can't see it hitting Florida in this 12Z run, just grazing the eastern Bahamas.

NHC may want to make a another shift right again depending upon the GFDL and HWRF.

The ridging is not there, especially if it is a strong, organized system....

Look again Gator, weakness left long time ago...a ridge is sitting over the Carolinas.

[underthwx]

Tropical Storm Emily has stalled south of Puerto Rico and at least two computer forecast models suggest it will dissipate near the island of Hispaniola, according to the National Hurricane Center...


just read this on Bloomberg news site.......

[Aric Dunn]

There is ridging sitting over the Carolinas, I'm not sure I buy this continued NW motion the GFS is showing

I was looking at that too,.seems odd but to the east is 594 ridging dropping ese changing the flow.. could be why

[Aric Dunn]

has slowed down by 94 hours..

[KWT]

where do you see 290... there has not been enough consistent center fix to do that.. hence the stationary by NHC.

Just looking at the alst recon fix AND the center fixes before it relocated, both were between say 285-290 which makes sense given the model forecast.

In truth though at the moment that is only an educated guess...have to get more recon in to have more certainty.

[DESTRUCTION5]

has slowed down by 94 hours..

Stalled

[caneseddy]

At 102 starting to recurve

[Aric Dunn]

just chilling there now... looks like a piece of energy is coming through the ohio valley might be enough to turn it.. the flow however it very very ZOnal and no troughs...

[cycloneye]

Hi, everybody. Just a question. Here in Puerto Rico the government is holding a press conference and the national weather service spokesman said if Emily keeps stationary for 4 or 5 hours, it might get stronger enough to get close to Cat 1. Is that a realistic scenario with this poorly organized system?

He also mentioned that a stronger system might track more to the north. Any thoughts on this?

Thanks!

PS Conditions here in my hometown in the nothern-central part of the island are overcast skies, moderate tp a strong ocassionally breeze. No rain as of right now.

First,welcome to storm2k. I also live in Puerto Rico. Anything is possible in the tropics in terms of intensity as many factors play a roll. A stronger system moves more to the WNW or NW especially,if a trough deepens southward as is progged by models.

[Evil Jeremy]

Tropical Storm Emily has stalled south of Puerto Rico and at least two computer forecast models suggest it will dissipate near the island of Hispaniola, according to the National Hurricane Center...


just read this on Bloomberg news site.......

Not the case. The GFS and GFDL were predicting dissipation in previous runs, but not anymore.

[JPmia]

has slowed down by 94 hours..

looks like the ridge is building back

or maybe not

[KWT]

Ridging weaker on this run, weakness may not be there but the ridging is weaker and not quite so well defined, hence why it continues on a slow WNW/NW motion...

I've got a big feeling the GFS is once again overdoing troughing...

[underthwx]

thanks for clarifying that E.Jeremy.I was suprised to read that........

[KWT]

Starting to recurve by 108hrs...

Means little though if the intial data isn't right....

Also dare say the GFS is being WAY overagressive when it comes to strengthening out of Hispaniola, don't see why it'd get itself organised quite that rapidly when its lower levels have been stripped to pieces...

[ronjon]

Runs up the east side of the Bahamas on 12x GFS. Looks like another shortwave moving through the Ohio Valley after 90 hrs will scoop it out and away from the coast. This run also moves the system across hispanola on its east side contrary to the NHC track - seems pretty quick.

12z GFS

[Aric Dunn]

yeah steering drop off a lot .. westerly to the north but not where its at.. its just drifitng..

[Vortex]

Nice satellite presentation this afternoon...regardless of development Emily has the real potential to be a serious flood threat for Haiti.

[Aric Dunn]

Runs up the east side of the Bahamas on 12x GFS. Looks like another shortwave moving through the Ohio Valley after 90 hrs will scoop it out and away from the coast. This run also moves the system across hispanola on its east side contrary to the NHC track - seems pretty quick.

12z GFS

yeah its a little quick..