ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[artist]

from Derek at 2AM this morning -

The disturbance that is moving through the Windward Islands is now Tropical Storm Emily. currently, Emily has winds estimated at 45 mph and is moving into the eastern Caribbean Sea. It is now about 75 miles west of Dominica and is moving west at about 18 mph. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring for the Leeward and Windward Islands at the present time. Heavy squalls are expected to continue to affect these areas through the next 24 hours or so. The greatest threat will be flooding and mudslides. 5-10 inches of rainfall are expected. Unfortunately, the forecast track takes the storm toward Haiti. There, 10-15 inches of rain are likely. This is expected to cause deadly flooding and mudslides, including in many of the areas affected by last year's earthquake. The only good news is that Emily is not currently forecast to become a hurricane in the Caribbean. Instead, it is expected to have winds in the 60-65 mph range when it impacts Haiti.

Long-term, the track is in the general direction of South Florida. It is too soon to say for sure as to whether or not the system will make a direct hit on Florida. Some of the models have the storm passing to the east of Florida while others are over the state. The current thinking is that the system will move near or over Florida. This is because those models indicating a track to the east are tending to take Emily to the northwest too quickly. Emily is not expected to begin its turn until it is south of the Dominican Republic. There is uncertainty regarding the intensity forecast when it nears Florida. It is not known how much of Emily will survive the trek across Haiti and eastern Cuba. If it survives, conditions appear as if they will be quite favorable for intensification. Therefore, Emily could be near or even at hurricane intensity as it impacts Florida or the northwest Bahamas.

There does not appear to be a significant threat to the Pensacola area at this time. However, if Emily remains a weak storm as it currently is, a track more to the west is expected. This could bring the system into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, residents of the area should closely monitor the progress of Emily, in case the track forecast is shifted to the west.

[Aric Dunn]

Anny ships and bouy reports from this area?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Caribbean.shtml

[KWT]

But yea KWT the models had Don all over the N/side of the Islands also and it just never panned out.The models are a useful tool but come later today we are still around 15-15.5N the models met nothing compared to the visible eye.Maybe they(models) will prevail but they always seem to have a slight r/basis?

Quite a few models do have a R.Bias, but not all, for example UKMO is very often got a west bias.

We'll just have to wait and see for a little while, either way motion has slowed right down.

[HURAKAN]

AF309 on its way to Emily

[HURAKAN]

822
URNT15 KNHC 021656
AF309 0605A EMILY HDOB 03 20110802
164600 1736N 06431W 8422 01595 0121 +157 //// 110033 033 /// /// 05
164630 1735N 06430W 8405 01608 0117 +162 +156 112033 034 /// /// 03
164700 1734N 06428W 8408 01605 0118 +162 +152 113035 036 /// /// 03
164730 1733N 06427W 8412 01603 0119 +160 +150 112035 036 /// /// 03
164800 1732N 06426W 8411 01603 0120 +157 +147 113034 035 /// /// 03
164830 1731N 06424W 8415 01600 0120 +158 +146 110034 035 /// /// 03
164900 1730N 06423W 8404 01606 0114 +160 +143 111037 038 /// /// 03
164930 1729N 06422W 8406 01606 0116 +159 +142 111035 037 /// /// 03
165000 1728N 06421W 8409 01603 0117 +159 +140 110034 034 /// /// 03
165030 1728N 06419W 8404 01606 0117 +157 +139 110037 038 /// /// 03
165100 1727N 06418W 8405 01605 0114 +163 +138 111034 035 /// /// 03
165130 1726N 06417W 8402 01607 0115 +161 +138 112035 035 /// /// 03
165200 1725N 06416W 8410 01599 0112 +163 +137 111035 035 /// /// 03
165230 1725N 06415W 8405 01602 0114 +160 +137 108034 035 /// /// 03
165300 1724N 06414W 8415 01593 0111 +165 +137 109035 035 /// /// 03
165330 1723N 06413W 8413 01596 0111 +163 +138 109035 036 /// /// 03
165400 1722N 06412W 8410 01597 0109 +165 +139 106033 034 /// /// 03
165430 1721N 06411W 8412 01595 0112 +161 +141 107034 035 /// /// 03
165500 1721N 06409W 8408 01600 0109 +165 +142 106034 035 /// /// 03
165530 1720N 06408W 8412 01599 0110 +163 +143 106034 035 /// /// 03
$$
;

[KWT]

Next flight heading into Emily, running at quite a quick rate now aren't they!

[cycloneye]

And is a short flight towards center from base.

[Hurricaneman]

Woke up at noon expecting to see you know what for a storm, but I come on to see a pretty well organized storm, I feel for what those in Haiti are going to feel in 36 hrs

[KWT]

Yep so that means alot of time spent flying around the system instead and more passes through the center!

[KWT]

Woke up at noon expecting to see you know what for a storm, but I come on to see a pretty well organized storm, I feel for what those in Haiti are going to feel in 36 hrs

What is interesting is how well organised the mMLC is and yet how poorly organised the LLC and the lower levels was, I wonder whether recon will find anything abit better...

[SouthFloridawx]

You think they will do a direct NE to SW pass, from the beginning?

[Aric Dunn]

nogaps kills it again..


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[HURAKAN]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021706
AF309 0605A EMILY HDOB 04 20110802
165600 1719N 06407W 8404 01604 0110 +165 +143 104035 036 /// /// 03
165630 1719N 06406W 8438 01567 0111 +166 +143 102034 035 /// /// 03
165700 1718N 06405W 8618 01390 0113 +174 +144 104035 036 /// /// 03
165730 1717N 06404W 8799 01210 0110 +182 +146 104037 038 /// /// 03
165800 1716N 06403W 8848 01158 0110 +183 +149 098035 037 /// /// 03
165830 1716N 06402W 8939 01088 0128 +191 +153 100040 041 /// /// 03
165900 1715N 06401W 9141 00882 0113 +203 +156 099037 038 /// /// 03
165930 1715N 06359W 9402 00631 0106 +223 +159 098039 040 039 000 03
170000 1714N 06359W 9646 00404 0101 +228 +164 108040 041 038 000 03
170030 1713N 06358W 9751 00306 0099 +230 +169 108039 040 040 000 03
170100 1712N 06357W 9774 00285 0097 +236 +174 109040 041 040 000 03
170130 1711N 06356W 9768 00289 0097 +239 +179 108039 040 039 000 03
170200 1711N 06355W 9767 00291 0096 +239 +184 104039 040 038 000 03
170230 1710N 06354W 9770 00288 0097 +231 +188 102035 037 037 000 03
170300 1710N 06354W 9770 00288 0098 +231 +191 103038 039 037 000 03
170330 1709N 06352W 9766 00293 0097 +232 +192 099038 039 038 000 03
170400 1708N 06351W 9770 00288 0097 +234 +193 096039 040 040 001 03
170430 1707N 06350W 9774 00284 0097 +232 +195 095038 038 040 000 03
170500 1707N 06349W 9758 00297 0097 +231 +195 096037 039 039 000 03
170530 1706N 06348W 9774 00285 0097 +231 +195 097037 039 040 000 03
$$
;


361
URNT15 KNHC 021716
AF309 0605A EMILY HDOB 05 20110802
170600 1705N 06347W 9771 00288 0097 +230 +195 095034 036 040 000 03
170630 1704N 06346W 9768 00290 0098 +230 +194 094032 035 038 000 03
170700 1704N 06344W 9767 00293 0098 +230 +193 098034 035 037 001 03
170730 1703N 06343W 9766 00292 0098 +231 +192 095033 034 039 001 03
170800 1702N 06342W 9775 00285 0098 +234 +192 095035 037 038 001 03
170830 1701N 06341W 9772 00289 0098 +232 +192 097033 033 038 001 03
170900 1700N 06340W 9773 00287 0098 +231 +192 099034 035 039 000 03
170930 1700N 06339W 9767 00291 0098 +231 +191 098032 034 037 000 03
171000 1659N 06338W 9773 00286 0098 +233 +192 101033 034 036 001 00
171030 1658N 06337W 9769 00290 0098 +234 +192 101033 033 037 000 03
171100 1657N 06336W 9765 00294 0099 +233 +192 100031 032 036 000 03
171130 1657N 06334W 9773 00287 0098 +235 +192 100031 032 037 000 03
171200 1656N 06333W 9766 00293 0099 +233 +193 098029 030 036 001 03
171230 1655N 06332W 9774 00286 0099 +235 +193 100031 032 036 000 03
171300 1654N 06331W 9772 00288 0099 +235 +193 102030 031 036 000 03
171330 1653N 06330W 9771 00289 0099 +235 +193 103029 030 035 000 03
171400 1653N 06329W 9772 00289 0099 +235 +194 104028 029 036 000 03
171430 1652N 06328W 9773 00287 0099 +235 +193 102028 030 035 000 00
171500 1651N 06327W 9772 00289 0099 +235 +193 105029 030 035 000 03
171530 1650N 06325W 9775 00288 0099 +238 +193 105030 031 035 000 03
$$
;

[KWT]

Yep, though its weakens the system before it even makes landfall so not sure how much faith should be put into the Nogaps.

[tolakram]

Live IR loop:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

rapid scan mode. Looks like it hasn't quite decided on a center yet, will be interesting to see what recon finds within the hour.

[HURAKAN]

[Aric Dunn]

very interesting though... the nogaps has been very persistent on much farther west track even if it was strong or weak.... it is doing something that none of the other models are with the ridge. it digs the trough down like the rest but then lifts it out and then starts digging it down again farther east which pushed the larger ridge to east presently back the west...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[SouthFloridawx]

I think it kind of looks like CMC is farther east, but still in the gulf.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I am not buying into the rightward shift. When the storm continued westward, despite calls for a more WNW path, the models adjusted to the west. That made sense. The swing to a Right bias was from bad feed data last night, and the next run was just that same data run again. The next runs should be a little better, but may not incorporate the new center location or the proper forward speed and direction of Emily, as it was too messy to determine. We probably won't see a clean set of runs until midnight tonight to get a better idea on what Emily may do next.
I suspect if we see RI, then a more northerly path to Hispanola would be likely. However, if she still strengthens at a normal progression, after her slow down, continued direction west, and center relocations to the south, that her likely path should shift more to the west. I suspect that Haiti will get a lot of rain, but receive no more than a southern graze from Emily. A path of Cuba looks more likely IMO.
I suspect a stronger system hitting Cuba too, at least a Hurricane 1, if not a weak 2.

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[SouthFloridawx]

No wait, it's east of Florida...