ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

We have Bret folks........

Amazing what the Gulf stream can do

[GCANE]

G cane, what largely populated area are you referring to?
It looks like it's headed n/ne like those storms did last year. Same pattern?

If it goes NE - no problem.

[sunnyday]

Is there any chance of it going toward Fl (going west instead of e or ne)?

[Jevo]

TD2/Bret is making for a wet dusk here in South Florida.. We have plenty of low fast moving clouds whipping by.. Notice the rain shield on the way in on the left side of the shot..

[Javlin]

They must expect another front to dig down and scoop it out eventually.
There is still shear trying to pull it east at the moment but if that front misses what happens?

That will be the way I look at it 2mph or so S ATM for about 24 hrs takes it to 26.5N any faster and 25N occurs?Thats awful low for a front to P/U it's all timing.This time of the year things move E>W.The NHC boys are good at what they do buy sometimes nature does not like the models telling them how the game is played.

[wxman57]

Note that it's named Bret, not Brett. There was just a slight increase in convection near the center and I guess the NHC thought that was enough. After another near-100 degree day here in Houston with no rain in quite a while, I'd even take a hurricane if we could get some decent rain out of it. But it's not going to be Bret.

[AdamFirst]

Note that it's named Bret, not Brett.

Maybe the guys at the NHC are Bears fans

[jinftl]

The forecast track is falls into of the primary climatological tracks for July given where Bret formed...

They must expect another front to dig down and scoop it out eventually.
There is still shear trying to pull it east at the moment but if that front misses what happens?

That will be the way I look at it 2mph or so S ATM for about 24 hrs takes it to 26.5N any faster and 25N occurs?Thats awful low for a front to P/U it's all timing.This time of the year things move E>W.The NHC boys are good at what they do buy sometimes nature does not like the models telling them how the game is played.

[wxman57]

Note that it's named Bret, not Brett.

Maybe the guys at the NHC are Bears fans

It wasn't the NHC, just several posters here on the forum. I made the corrections to the proper spelling.

[ROCK]

Thats probavbly the case, the wind shift and the way the pressure dropped quite a bit near the center suggests the core is quite small though pretty strong.

Interestingly the ECM did spot this system a good 5 days ago, here is a post I made early on the 12th of July:

"The 0z ECM does try and develop something very close to the coast off Carlolina...a further 50-100 mile eastward shunt and it'd probably develop into a TD/TS as it tries to cut-off from the front..."

A little too far north but the ECM didn't make a bad call there actually in the end!

I really do love the EURO...

[Aric Dunn]

MAn it sure is starting to drop south at a faster pace... how low will he go.. lol

[Ivanhater]

MAn it sure is starting to drop south at a faster pace... how low will he go.. lol

I have been watching that as well...if he goes too far south, that could open the possibility that the weakness has less of an influence.

[Aric Dunn]

I tell you what though... if it does deepen... it will likely stay around longer as the 500 mb and above steering is much more in control

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[Aric Dunn]

MAn it sure is starting to drop south at a faster pace... how low will he go.. lol

I have been watching that as well...if he goes too far south, that could open the possibility that the weakness has less of an influence.

take a look at the deep layer steering from the link I just posted.. it could explain the present faster southerly speed.. it is deeper than it was this morning... could be interesting in the morning..

[Javlin]

MAn it sure is starting to drop south at a faster pace... how low will he go.. lol

Just making an obs Aric this was the first front in in 5 months to bring rain(1.5") to the NGOM region and I am to believe that another one is coming Hey if thats the case bring it on and Wxman57/TX can take the storms.I was like him and still am if it's low key.

Sorry Aric took it the wrong Sir.Apoligies.Kevin

[ROCK]

MAn it sure is starting to drop south at a faster pace... how low will he go.. lol

he gets too low...then you have got to start thinking the N NE track odds are reduced.....


Ivan didnt see your post above.... great minds think alike....

[SouthDadeFish]

Kinda seems like dry air is really limiting convection on the NW side. It will be interesting to see if Bret can shield it off or not. He has a nice inflow channel from the south.

[South Texas Storms]

Note that it's named Bret, not Brett. There was just a slight increase in convection near the center and I guess the NHC thought that was enough. After another near-100 degree day here in Houston with no rain in quite a while, I'd even take a hurricane if we could get some decent rain out of it. But it's not going to be Bret.

Unfortunately I have to agree with you wxman. I would even take a hurricane to end this horrible drought we have been having here. Maybe Cindy will help us out? We can only continue to hope and pray.

[MGC]

Not surprised at all with the formation of Bret. This system has been a rapid organizer. Just hope the NHC is right about the track....I'm rather paranoid of systems that cross south Florida....Betsy, Andrew, Katrina....seems they frequently find their way to where I am......MGC

[SootyTern]

MGC.They sure do! Need to throw bottles with notes saying 'Hi! Watch out!' to my friends in Mississippi and Louisiana the next time one comes over us.