ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

Yep, still too linear for my taste. Significant development still looks a few days away. The weaker it stays in the short term is good news for the Islands, but not so much for the mainland U.S.

When you say significant development is a few days away, you mean it wont develop after it pass the Lesser Antilles?

the islands are looking good right now unless it can develop soon and begin to deepen

[Ivanhater]

Yep, still too linear for my taste. Significant development still looks a few days away. The weaker it stays in the short term is good news for the Islands, but not so much for the mainland U.S.

When you say significant development is a few days away, you mean it wont develop until it passes the Lesser Antilles?

I just can't see a hurricane threat some of the models have been advertising for the Islands in a couple days. I do think we will see a TD later today as long as it does not fall apart today.

[Ivanhater]

Much too stretched out west to east. If this has a shot at becoming Emily prior to the Islands, it needs to burst solid convection over the center so it can consolidate. Westward 'ho until then.


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[cycloneye]

Michael,that is from a 2004 system

[Aric Dunn]

wrong image,,,, says 93 L lol

[wxman57]

Looks pretty good to me today, much better than yesterday. I think NHC's 70% chance of development prior to 8AM EDT Monday is about 30% too low. Appears nearly a TD right now, quite possibly is one.

[Ivanhater]

Lol, I copied the wrong image. Fixed to include this years system Still looks about the same though.

[cycloneye]

Looks pretty good to me today, much better than yesterday. I think NHC's 70% chance of development prior to 8AM EDT Monday is about 30% too low. Appears nearly a TD right now, quite possibly is one.

57,you see it too linear to be classified?

[Aric Dunn]

Looks pretty good to me today, much better than yesterday. I think NHC's 70% chance of development prior to 8AM EDT Monday is about 30% too low. Appears nearly a TD right now, quite possibly is one.

well as a technicality it is... has a closed circ and is of course tropical in nature. since there is no real definition that defines a TC except a closed wind field. yeah it technically would be a TD. but NHC does not do that..

[x-y-no]

Looks pretty good to me today, much better than yesterday. I think NHC's 70% chance of development prior to 8AM EDT Monday is about 30% too low. Appears nearly a TD right now, quite possibly is one.

You don't think it has stacking problems? Looks to me like the developing LLC is at least a full degree ahead of the developing MLC, and is on the leading edge of the convection.

[Ivanhater]

Looks pretty good to me today, much better than yesterday. I think NHC's 70% chance of development prior to 8AM EDT Monday is about 30% too low. Appears nearly a TD right now, quite possibly is one.

A TD looks like a shoe in today, but it is still too linear imo. With that type of presentation, it will probably struggle for a couple days until it can consolidate more.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks pretty good to me today, much better than yesterday. I think NHC's 70% chance of development prior to 8AM EDT Monday is about 30% too low. Appears nearly a TD right now, quite possibly is one.

You don't think it has stacking problems? Looks to me like the developing LLC is at least a full degree ahead of the developing MLC, and is on the leading edge of the convection.

well the greatest low level vorticity is on the eastern side of the convection. hard to say where the single LLC will take shape. once some organized convection develops its going to continue to look like this.

[cycloneye]

Looks pretty good to me today, much better than yesterday. I think NHC's 70% chance of development prior to 8AM EDT Monday is about 30% too low. Appears nearly a TD right now, quite possibly is one.

A TD looks like a shoe in today, but it is still too linear imo. With that type of presentation, it will probably struggle for a couple days until it can consolidate more.

When it slowsdown,boom.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks pretty good to me today, much better than yesterday. I think NHC's 70% chance of development prior to 8AM EDT Monday is about 30% too low. Appears nearly a TD right now, quite possibly is one.

A TD looks like a shoe in today, but it is still too linear imo. With that type of presentation, it will probably struggle for a couple days until it can consolidate more.

When it slowsdown,boom.

exactly. I was just looking at the steering and ridging to its north. there is a slight weakness coming up 50 to 55 W so it should start to slow down some today.

[RL3AO]

Looks pretty good to me today, much better than yesterday. I think NHC's 70% chance of development prior to 8AM EDT Monday is about 30% too low. Appears nearly a TD right now, quite possibly is one.

Glad I'm not seeing things. Said I thought it was a TD at 4am and the next 20 posts we're "this doesn't look good".

Doesn't have to look pretty to be a TD.

[x-y-no]

When it slowsdown,boom.

Yeah ... GFS slows it down over the next couple of days, and that looks likely to me.

[cycloneye]

Looks pretty good to me today, much better than yesterday. I think NHC's 70% chance of development prior to 8AM EDT Monday is about 30% too low. Appears nearly a TD right now, quite possibly is one.

Glad I'm not seeing things. Said I thought it was a TD at 4am and the next 20 posts we're "this doesn't look good".

Doesn't have to look pretty to be a TD.

Tommorows recon will tell the real story.

[Ivanhater]

Looks pretty good to me today, much better than yesterday. I think NHC's 70% chance of development prior to 8AM EDT Monday is about 30% too low. Appears nearly a TD right now, quite possibly is one.

Glad I'm not seeing things. Said I thought it was a TD at 4am and the next 20 posts we're "this doesn't look good".

Doesn't have to look pretty to be a TD.

I think most of us agree on the TD status, we are just looking down the road a bit. Any significant development like some of the models are showing seems unlikely given the stretched out nature right now.

[hurricanefloyd5]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST SAT JUL 30 2011



LOOKING AHEAD...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AND THEN ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST
INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH...AND ENCOUNTERS
MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...REGARDING ITS
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ULTIMATE TRACK AND WHAT EFFECTS IT MAY HAVE
ON THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...AS EACH DAY PASSES...AVAILABLE
OBSERVED AND FORECAST DATA CONTINUE TO PORTRAY AN INCREASING
PROBABILITY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A THREAT AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE ISLANDS OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
INCLUDING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND PUERTO
RICO.

[TheBurn]