ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SouthFloridawx]

It's definitely going to have problems with Hispaniola.

[Hurricaneman]

is emily still stationary?

doesnt look it, looks like its moving west at 275 to 280

[Aric Dunn]

cmc still over gulf... image above is 12z ...

[Aric Dunn]

its probably moving .. but not very fast yet..

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

It's definitely going to have problems with Hispaniola.

That's only if it traverses Hispanola's mountains, or a very large part of the storm goes through them.

[Dave]

922
URNT15 KNHC 021746
AF309 0605A EMILY HDOB 08 20110802
173600 1602N 06415W 9777 00262 0076 +214 +172 115044 048 043 009 00
173630 1601N 06416W 9767 00268 0074 +214 +168 118042 044 042 009 03
173700 1600N 06418W 9767 00268 0073 +213 +166 119041 042 046 008 00
173730 1558N 06419W 9770 00265 0073 +200 +165 127039 041 044 008 03
173800 1557N 06420W 9771 00259 0070 +198 +162 128040 043 043 008 03
173830 1556N 06421W 9771 00259 0068 +212 +160 134039 040 041 003 03
173900 1555N 06422W 9773 00255 0065 +214 +159 135038 039 042 001 03
173930 1554N 06423W 9772 00255 0064 +210 +159 135039 040 039 001 03
174000 1553N 06424W 9768 00256 0062 +214 +159 136037 038 040 000 03
174030 1552N 06425W 9770 00255 0062 +218 +160 135035 036 038 001 03
174100 1551N 06427W 9774 00251 0061 +215 +161 134036 038 038 000 03
174130 1550N 06428W 9772 00252 0061 +214 +162 132035 036 037 003 00
174200 1549N 06429W 9775 00250 0061 +222 +162 137029 032 036 000 03
174230 1548N 06430W 9767 00258 0060 +224 +164 141025 028 035 000 00
174300 1546N 06431W 9776 00250 0061 +229 +166 143019 021 030 001 00
174330 1545N 06432W 9770 00256 0060 +230 +169 152015 016 028 000 00
174400 1544N 06433W 9771 00253 0059 +230 +172 151012 013 027 000 00
174430 1543N 06434W 9771 00255 0059 +231 +175 151009 009 026 001 00
174500 1542N 06436W 9777 00248 0059 +232 +177 151006 006 023 000 03
174530 1541N 06437W 9769 00257 0060 +228 +178 162007 007 /// /// 03
$$
;

[chris_fit]

Looks like fix will be WNW of the 11am position....

[Evil Jeremy]

12z HWRF: Similar path, stronger overall, closer to the SC/NC coastline near end of run:
http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf ... 2_mslp.png

[Hurricaneman]

latest pictures say that the SAL and dry air to its north are being mixed out except on the western fringes, looks like its getting a core and strengthening looks to be commencing

[HURAKAN]

[GCANE]

It's definitely going to have problems with Hispaniola.

May have some issues with shear even before Hispaniola.

[Aric Dunn]

pressure is down at least 2 milibars..

[cycloneye]

pressure already below last fix and they are not to center yet..

Lowest pressure.

Code: Select all

 0059

[KWT]

Winds justifiy 40kts now, maybe even 45kts...so we do have a stronger winds, look like that deep convection has translated downwards a little at last...still have to see how the center is...

[northjaxpro]

Think NHC stays with 40 MPH at 2 PM?

Yes. I don't think they will make any big changes until Recon sends in more data. may see changes at 5:00 p.m. though.

[wxman57]

Convection has increased a bit, but I'm not sure it's over the center. Recon is heading into the center area now, so we'll find out soon enough. The slower forward speed now may reduce the risk to south Florida, as is indicated by the latest runs of the GFS (eastern Bahamas) and Canadian (east of FL vs. west of FL in previous runs). Max winds look to be around 40kts/45 mph now. Some of those SFMR winds look suspicious.

P.S. New recon in. The SSE wind at 15.7N/64.6W indicates the center is west of the convection.

[Aric Dunn]

12z HWRF: Similar path, stronger overall, closer to the SC/NC coastline near end of run:
http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf ... 2_mslp.png

thats a little farther west.

[SouthFloridawx]

cmc still over gulf... image above is 12z ...

Actually, these are the 12 CMC directly from their site... 96 Hours through 132



[imghttp://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_120.jpg][/img]

[SouthFloridawx]

When get onto the site, you have to refresh, then you can pull the 12Z images. The loop isn't updated just yet either.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html

[HurricaneWarning92]

looks like all models are in agreement that it will curve eventually, and a lot of them showing an immediate curve without gaining much latitude to the right which makes me wonder... is it possible a ridge could build back in and force it westwards again? like a jeanne type scenario? hmm..