ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[AdamFirst]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
200 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

...EMILY BACK ON TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 64.8W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[Hurricaneman]

I have a saying for storms like this, the fate of Emily is not written in stone, its written in pencil, because any little change upstream could cause this to go east of the current NHC track or if ridging sticks around a little longer west of track

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If the center is exposed again, and further west, that means both a maintaining weak storm, as well as the continued westward movement. The stall wasn't really a stall I don't think, but merely center relocation and shift in convection that made is seem like a stall. The models shifted east based on the assumption of an actual stalled and strengthening system, and prior to center relocation too.
Looks like they are still garbage in garbage out for now. Gotta wait until the next runs.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021806
AF309 0605A EMILY HDOB 10 20110802
175600 1522N 06502W 9769 00264 0068 +239 +200 198010 010 /// /// 03
175630 1521N 06503W 9773 00261 0068 +235 +201 196010 010 /// /// 03
175700 1520N 06504W 9769 00264 0068 +238 +200 191008 009 /// /// 03
175730 1519N 06505W 9769 00265 0068 +241 +199 209006 006 /// /// 03
175800 1518N 06506W 9772 00262 0068 +241 +199 213005 006 /// /// 03
175830 1517N 06508W 9771 00264 0069 +240 +200 211006 007 /// /// 03
175900 1516N 06509W 9772 00263 0069 +243 +200 215006 006 /// /// 03
175930 1515N 06510W 9769 00266 0069 +240 +200 191006 007 /// /// 03
180000 1514N 06511W 9771 00264 0070 +240 +201 192007 007 /// /// 03
180030 1513N 06512W 9770 00264 0069 +238 +201 192007 007 /// /// 03
180100 1512N 06513W 9774 00262 0070 +239 +202 197008 008 /// /// 03
180130 1511N 06514W 9766 00269 0071 +240 +203 196007 007 /// /// 03
180200 1509N 06515W 9770 00266 0071 +239 +204 191007 007 /// /// 03
180230 1508N 06516W 9771 00265 0071 +240 +204 190006 007 /// /// 03
180300 1507N 06517W 9771 00266 0071 +239 +205 197004 005 /// /// 03
180330 1506N 06519W 9773 00264 0071 +240 +206 206005 005 /// /// 03
180400 1505N 06520W 9770 00267 0071 +240 +206 220004 005 /// /// 03
180430 1504N 06521W 9770 00266 0071 +240 +207 227005 005 /// /// 03
180500 1503N 06522W 9772 00264 0070 +243 +208 252005 005 /// /// 03
180530 1502N 06523W 9770 00265 0071 +240 +208 255005 005 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

figured it was 275 to 280 on movement..

[KWT]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
200 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

...EMILY BACK ON TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 64.8W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Sounds like a pretty good summery of the system, moving at 280 degrees (though eventhat maybe a smidge too far north based on recon) and strengthening slightly as well.

Need to keep a close eye on this, because its still going further west then the models expected...

[AdamFirst]

Need to keep a close eye on this, because its still going further west then the models expected...

As I said in the models thread I believe the NHC track seems to be verifying thus far, minus the slight delay during center reformation.

[KWT]

Oh yeah there is a weak ridge, but its not the beast that shunted Jeanne all the way back due west, its a small ridge that could prevent a total recurve and maybe bend the system WNW.

Think the models are still too far east in the short term looking at the motion at the moment.

[HURAKAN]

[Steve H.]

Well Emily keeps spitting out outflow boundaries to the west. Looking terrible right now, but maybe she's tighter under the center. I agree she never stalled; the weak llc kept movely along, but she has slowed up some. Th ings can change, but she still is suffering from shear and some dry air

[HurricaneWarning92]

Honestly, at this point, we just have to wait and watch this unfold. There are many factors that will indicate Emily's future track. Hispaniola has very high mountains, and this could cause the center to deviate from the forecast points therefore making the track shift. Also, the ridge to the north. It could remain strong just a tad and could influence the future track either to the west or east.

[KWT]

Need to keep a close eye on this, because its still going further west then the models expected...

As I said in the models thread I believe the NHC track seems to be verifying thus far, minus the slight delay during center reformation.

Will have to see, right now its close to the NHC track but the NHC I think have done a good job in the last 12-24hrs in keeping the track to the west of the models...the real test starts soon when we need to see the system starting to gain abit more latitude.

[RevDodd]

yeah hwrf.. farther west.. almost on the coast

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Could one of y'all explain just how a storm could take a hard right like that? I understand how building high pressure could force a sharp left, and of course how a storm might be pulled all sorts of ways by troughing.

But a near right turn? Would the HWRF indicate Emily smacking into some sort of frontal boundary off the Carolina coast? And if so, why wouldn't it veer to the left, rather than the right?

Thanks for any help on this!

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021816
AF309 0605A EMILY HDOB 11 20110802
180600 1501N 06524W 9775 00260 0070 +240 +209 257005 005 /// /// 03
180630 1500N 06525W 9776 00261 0071 +239 +210 261004 004 /// /// 03
180700 1459N 06526W 9768 00268 0071 +239 +211 269004 004 /// /// 03
180730 1458N 06527W 9770 00266 0071 +238 +211 282004 004 /// /// 03
180800 1456N 06529W 9769 00268 0072 +237 +211 285004 004 /// /// 03
180830 1455N 06530W 9772 00265 0071 +240 +211 301006 007 /// /// 03
180900 1454N 06531W 9771 00265 0071 +242 +211 294006 007 /// /// 03
180930 1453N 06532W 9772 00264 0070 +245 +211 262006 007 /// /// 03
181000 1452N 06533W 9769 00267 0070 +244 +212 269006 006 /// /// 03
181030 1451N 06534W 9771 00265 0070 +245 +212 283007 008 /// /// 03
181100 1450N 06535W 9772 00265 0070 +244 +213 296007 008 /// /// 03
181130 1449N 06536W 9772 00264 0070 +245 +213 298007 007 /// /// 03
181200 1448N 06538W 9772 00265 0071 +245 +214 290007 007 /// /// 03
181230 1447N 06539W 9770 00266 0071 +241 +214 301008 008 /// /// 03
181300 1446N 06540W 9772 00265 0071 +243 +214 291007 007 /// /// 03
181330 1444N 06540W 9762 00271 0070 +241 +215 272009 010 /// /// 03
181400 1444N 06539W 9768 00268 0071 +240 +216 249010 010 /// /// 03
181430 1444N 06537W 9770 00266 0071 +240 +218 254011 011 /// /// 03
181500 1444N 06536W 9772 00265 0071 +240 +218 255010 011 /// /// 03
181530 1444N 06534W 9771 00266 0071 +240 +217 248009 010 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 021813
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052011
A. 02/17:48:50Z
B. 15 deg 38 min N
064 deg 47 min W
C. NA
D. 49 kt
E. 052 deg 42 nm
F. 113 deg 51 kt
G. 052 deg 41 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 24 C / 305 m
J. 23 C / 307 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 0605A EMILY OB 02
MAX FL WIND 51 KT NE QUAD 17:35:10Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;

[Dave]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 18:13Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2011
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 02
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 17:48:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°38'N 64°47'W (15.6333N 64.7833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 210 miles (338 km) to the SSE (156°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 49kts (~ 56.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 113° at 51kts (From the ESE at ~ 58.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 305m (1,001ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 307m (1,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:35:10Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

[GCANE]

About an hour ago, rain-rate was very light. Emily may have washed herself out for the moment.

[AdamFirst]

Well, it DID go from 15.3 to 15.6 north since 11 AM

[petit_bois]

The good news is It looks like all the models have given up on this being a major storm.
Far cry from what we were seeing a few days ago.

[SeminoleWind]

Euro out to 96 hours east of florida