ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Ivanhater]

meh

[ronjon]

I dunno about 91L - still not a lot of deep convection that NHC likes to classify as a TD. Has a virgorous LL circulation though. Moving much too fast at 21 mph to really consolidate in the short term. As I stated earlier, model support dropped off on the overnight runs. Only CMC and GFS ramp it up. The globals, while much maligned for missing Don, actually did a good job on its intensity with the more southern track of the Euro panning out. Obviously a criticial part of the long-term track equation will be intensity. The original SAT picture that Michael posted in error was 93L - the original wave of Charlie in 2004 that looks very similar to 91L -in a similar location.

[cycloneye]

meh

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES1 ... lQXFJG.jpg

I see convection curving down in the backside trying to circle around.

[RL3AO]

wxman or Aric, will the LL flow across the tropics slow down as we get into August or will these waves cruising at 20kts be around for a while?

[Aric Dunn]

meh

[img]http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES13452011211lQXFJG.jpg[/mg]

I see convection curving down in the backside trying to circle around.

yep thats where the greatest vorticity is

[Aric Dunn]

wxman or Aric, will the LL flow across the tropics slow down as we get into August or will these waves cruising at 20kts be around for a while?

typically things slow down in the heart of the season.the azores high is quite strong right now yhough

[Frank2]

To be honest I thought there might be more to see this morning, but aside from some turning at 10N 45W there really isn't that much there, aside from a W-E oriented wave...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

Have a nice weekend out there...

Frank

[Javlin]

Once this girl gets going she looks to be a nice size storm.

[cycloneye]

Once this girl gets going she looks to be a nice size storm.

On that point we all agree.

[wxman57]

I measured a 24 hr movement of 290 deg at 15.8 kts. That's a common speed for the region. Note that the Bermuda high is a bit east of its normal position now. Once the disturbance nears the Antilles it should really slow down, as indicated by the models. that's where it would intensify quickly.

NHC doesn't appear to like to upgrade disturbances that are threatening the eastern Caribbean without recon. Remember Tomas last year? That one was a TD a good 24 hours before recon could get there, and it really caught the eastern Caribbean residents by surprise. I'm hoping that the NHC upgrades this system by 4pm today so that residents aren't caught off-guard again.

Impact would be in just over 48 hrs early PM Monday for the Lesser Antilles (near Guadeloupe) and Tuesday afternoon/evening for the U.S. and British Virgin Island (just over 72 hrs). Not much time for residents or businesses to prepare if the NHC delays in upgrading it.

[hurricanefloyd5]

THIS FROM THE WEATHER CHANNEL Rick Knabbs


An Air Force reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate this system on Sunday, and a NOAA G-IV jet mission is tentatively scheduled for Sunday night to collect data for use in computer forecast models.

[Aric Dunn]

I measured a 24 hr movement of 290 deg at 15.8 kts. That's a common speed for the region. Note that the Bermuda high is a bit east of its normal position now. Once the disturbance nears the Antilles it should really slow down, as indicated by the models. that's where it would intensify quickly.

NHC doesn't appear to like to upgrade disturbances that are threatening the eastern Caribbean without recon. Remember Tomas last year? That one was a TD a good 24 hours before recon could get there, and it really caught the eastern Caribbean residents by surprise. I'm hoping that the NHC upgrades this system by 4pm today so that residents aren't caught off-guard again.

Impact would be in just over 48 hrs early PM Monday for the Lesser Antilles (near Guadeloupe) and Tuesday afternoon/evening for the U.S. and British Virgin Island (just over 72 hrs). Not much time for residents or businesses to prepare if the NHC delays in upgrading it.

Agreed.

[cycloneye]

I measured a 24 hr movement of 290 deg at 15.8 kts. That's a common speed for the region. Note that the Bermuda high is a bit east of its normal position now. Once the disturbance nears the Antilles it should really slow down, as indicated by the models. that's where it would intensify quickly.

NHC doesn't appear to like to upgrade disturbances that are threatening the eastern Caribbean without recon. Remember Tomas last year? That one was a TD a good 24 hours before recon could get there, and it really caught the eastern Caribbean residents by surprise. I'm hoping that the NHC upgrades this system by 4pm today so that residents aren't caught off-guard again.

Impact would be in just over 48 hrs early PM Monday for the Lesser Antilles (near Guadeloupe) and Tuesday afternoon/evening for the U.S. and British Virgin Island (just over 72 hrs). Not much time for residents or businesses to prepare if the NHC delays in upgrading it.

Great analysis of the situation and more important,in regard to those who live in the islands.

[HurricaneBelle]

The NHC wouldn't have gone out on a limb at 70% if it didn't already think it was a depression. Barring a complete collapse, it should be numbered later today.

[gatorcane]

Considering the GFDL and Euro do not develop this before the islands, I would be less worried if I lived in the islands.

Since ridging breaks down some at 55W, if this system were to deepen more than expected, it could miss to the northeast.

Farther down the line, it looks like the ECMWF and GFS do not agree on the long- wave pattern across North America with the ECMWF showing more heights off the eastern seaboard.

Still if the system is a deep system north of the Greater Antilles, i don't think the heights would be enough to keep the system moving west towards the SE CONUS.. The system would need to stay weaker and traverse the Caribbean to get farther west.

[msbee]

I measured a 24 hr movement of 290 deg at 15.8 kts. That's a common speed for the region. Note that the Bermuda high is a bit east of its normal position now. Once the disturbance nears the Antilles it should really slow down, as indicated by the models. that's where it would intensify quickly.

NHC doesn't appear to like to upgrade disturbances that are threatening the eastern Caribbean without recon. Remember Tomas last year? That one was a TD a good 24 hours before recon could get there, and it really caught the eastern Caribbean residents by surprise. I'm hoping that the NHC upgrades this system by 4pm today so that residents aren't caught off-guard again.

Impact would be in just over 48 hrs early PM Monday for the Lesser Antilles (near Guadeloupe) and Tuesday afternoon/evening for the U.S. and British Virgin Island (just over 72 hrs). Not much time for residents or businesses to prepare if the NHC delays in upgrading it.

thanks wxman.. Slowing down as it nears the Antilles is a sobering thought for all of us in the islands.

[SouthDadeFish]

91L is looking good to me. Circulation starting to wrap up on the eastern side, and as this side starts to become more dominant, I have the feeling the western linearity will dissipate. However, if the circulation does develop on the western side, it will have a much more difficult time dealing with dry air, which would slow development by quite a bit. Perhaps this is what the models are showing.

Also, although its moving somewhat briskly, many Cape Verde storms move this fast when they are classified. It may be slowing down development, but it won't prevent it. In my opinion, this has a good shot at becoming a tropical depression at 5pm or 11pm. The only reason I think it won't be classified is that by that time tonight, NHC might just wait for recon the next day. I hope they don't though. There is nothing like a Tropical Storm Warning or Hurricane Warning to raise awareness about a possible threat. Then everyone pays attention. Again, just my opinion.

[Frank2]

Considering the GFDL and Euro do not develop this before the islands, I would be less worried if I lived in the islands.

Since ridging breaks down some at 55W, if this system were to deepen more than expected, it could miss to the northeast.

Farther down the line, it looks like the ECMWF and GFS do not agree on the long- wave pattern across North America with the ECMWF showing more heights off the eastern seaboard.

Still if the system is a deep system north of the Greater Antilles, i don't think the heights would be enough to keep the system moving west towards the SE CONUS.. The system would need to stay weaker and traverse the Caribbean to get farther west.

I agree - my guess is that the NHC is just in a "wait and see" position at this time, and just a guess but per the TWO it would be at least 2 days before they consider any upgrading - right now, just based on my old and tired eyes, 91L isn't doing very much...

Frank

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I checked the 06z DGEX model and it has the system moving NNW east of the Bahamas:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/

Only the ECMWF is holding onto a ridge but it is not a very strong ridge. More models are showing a trough in the Western Atlantic which would indicate a recurve scenario.

It's becoming difficult to see how this could be a Florida or SE CONUS threat as a deep system.

[Ivanhater]

GFS Ensembles do not agree with the operational