ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[artist]

Every post with a forecast needs a disclaimer.

That is repetitive; there ought to be a disclaimer in the beginning of a thread instead of having to place it in every post with a forecast.

those are the rules. If you make what appears to be a forecast of any sort you must include the disclaimer. It has been that way for years and will remain that way.
By the way, welcome to s2k!

[psyclone]

the good news for florida at this point is that the west side of a northward moving storm is often pretty weak. if this thing skirts the east coast 75 or 100 miles offshore the impacts outside of the surf zone would probably be negligible. it is probably going to have get real close to cause problems so we do have some wiggle room since the official track carries it through abaco presently.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ronjon]

That sharp right hook by both the 00z BAMS and BAMM is bizarre. Wouldn't expect anything like that to occur unless a strong fall front is coming down.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Every hour is moves West it is changing the angle. I notice from the SFWMD plots that this should already be on a WNW heading as soon as it passed 65W but the 8pm still confirms a West heading. It will be interesting to see how much further it goes. Small shifts now could be a big deal later.

Evening BLP,

so the back and forth east west west east back west goes on. As you said the longer it tracks west the less I think we will see a major turn to the east. Would at that point have to be a track on or near the coast heading north then north east.

[Kory]

the good news for florida at this point is that the west side of a northward moving storm is often pretty weak. if this thing skirts the east coast 75 or 100 miles offshore the impacts outside of the surf zone would probably be negligible. it is probably going to have get real close to cause problems so we do have some wiggle room since the official track carries it through abaco presently.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yep the west side could wrap in some dry air from continental US.

[ozonepete]

Kory, expect the NHC to shift their track westward, maybe just slightly as we know they change tracks convservative, now that their beloved TVCN concensus model is to the west of their track.
BTW, I think that the 12z euro is slightly west of the current NHC track.

I know they will shift it, but it's not going to be a big change...just a slight west shift.

It's going to be a major shift to the West.

Kory, stick to your guns. If there's any shift at all, it will be very minor. There is nothing that's happened in the last few hours to indicate any significant change at all in the track. If anything, this may be slowing down again and that would be an indication that a recurve could come even sooner. NOT sayin' it definitely is slowing down, before I get jumped. Just saying it looks like it to me on the satellite loops.

My other point is that the computer models have gotten so good at track, except for stalled systems, or systems in very light steering winds, that to second guess them when the steering currents are fairly obvious is getting harder and harder, and you will usually not outguess the models. In my years posting on here, the only serious crow I've had to eat was ALWAYS on track forecast. On strength, the models still have a long way to go, but not on track.
The one BIG catch to the track forecast is what happens as it crosses over Hispaniola. Hispaniola has reduced category 4 hurricanes to tropical storms (Hazel 1954) and although some have come back (Hazel strengthened back to a cat 4 again before it hit the Carolinas) many never do. And there’s no way to know ahead of time – at this point we still don’t understand exactly why some storms survive the trip over high mountains and some don’t.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products. Follow us on
Twitter

[weatherSnoop]

Every post with a forecast needs a disclaimer.

That is repetitive; there ought to be a disclaimer in the beginning of a thread instead of having to place it in every post with a forecast.

Thread is 151 pages long, a disclaimer on page 1 would be missed by 85% of the readers

[SunnyThoughts]

Thanks to all for the answers on the G-IV question. So 17:30z would be 1:30 eastern tomorrow afternoon, If my math is right. ( which could be entirely wrong) lol

[ronjon]

yep about 75 miles east of the TCVN

And they were west of the TCVN for the 5pm. They won't shift all the way to be over the TCVN. They love their cone-to-cone consistency. But there will be a shift.

BTW, isn't it TVCN

[SeminoleWind]

this is a simple fix copy the disclaimer in my signature and paste it to yours in the user control panel, nothing repetitive about that.
now back to are regularly scheduled program,lol

[cycloneye]

Again,let's move on to topic.

[Kory]

[/quote]


Kory, stick to your guns. If there's any shift at all, it will be very minor. There is nothing that's happened in the last few hours to indicate any significant change at all in the track. If anything, this may be slowing down again and that would be an indication that a recurve could come even sooner. NOT sayin' it definitely is slowing down, before I get jumped. Just saying it looks like it to me on the satellite loops.

My other point is that the computer models have gotten so good at track, except for stalled systems, or systems in very light steering winds, that to second guess them when the steering currents are fairly obvious is getting harder and harder, and you will usually not outguess the models. In my years posting on here, the only serious crow I've had to eat was ALWAYS on track forecast. On strength, the models still have a long way to go, but not on track.
The one BIG catch to the track forecast is what happens as it crosses over Hispaniola. Hispaniola has reduced category 4 hurricanes to tropical storms (Hazel 1954) and although some have come back (Hazel strengthened back to a cat 4 again before it hit the Carolinas) many never do. And there’s no way to know ahead of time – at this point we still don’t understand exactly why some storms survive the trip over high mountains and some don’t.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products. Follow us on
Twitter[/quote][/quote]



Yep still sticking to what I said earlier. The official track can't shift much and these models are shifting from the left to the right and now back to the left. Who knows, may shift back to the right again. Seems like I don't have much support out there, so its nice to see one person.

[Evil Jeremy]

Hard to tell since the LLC isn't visible, but looking at satellites, it looks like Emily is slowing down.

[Aric Dunn]

yep about 75 miles east of the TCVN

And they were west of the TCVN for the 5pm. They won't shift all the way to be over the TCVN. They love their cone-to-cone consistency. But there will be a shift.

BTW, isn't it TVCN

HAHA yeah ...

[sunnyday]

Welcome, Kory! I hope you enjoy Storm 2k!

[CronkPSU]

plane is taking off around 12:15 right, what time will it get to the storm, will there be constant recon basically after that?

[AdamFirst]

plane is taking off around 12:15 right, what time will it get to the storm, will there be constant recon basically after that?

Recon is taking off from St. Croix so it's very close to the storm...shouldn't take too long to get there.

[SunnyThoughts]

Still booking it right along to the west it would appear.

[Gustywind]

Again,let's move on to topic.

Cycloneye, should we say for them and everybody here
I want you to take it easy :)

[JPmia]

It should be pointed out that the HWRF model shows a COC crossing the middle of hispainola intact over 10,000ft mountains. So the rest of the run after that point is very suspect right now to me.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation