ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[KWT]

Another decent west wobble as of 1915 UTC. SW shear appears to be really dropping off. Very symmetric system and pinhole eye.

Classic stair-stepping behaviour from Irene, as you sasy its looking abit better in terms of overall shape in the last few hours, probably bodes well for some further strengthening.

[Battlebrick]

looks like a pinhole eye, eerily similar to Wilma's.. wish recon was out there.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Most people listen to their local mets, they don't post here. I'm sure that each locality is watching this very closely and informing their citizens.

I have two girls in college at Wilmington NC. I believe in the belt and suspenders approach myself.

Go Hawks!

[FireRat]

Something that concerns me about Irene is the pin-hole eye it has. It seems that storms that had these eyes in the past not only intensified quickly, but the day after having that type of eye the storm expanded greatly in size both in EYE and WINDS. A good example was Hurricane Wilma on October 19th, 2005 with its pinhole eye, followed by Wilma with a very big eye on October 20th and 21st as it neared Cancun.

[Aric Dunn]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm4&zoom=&time=
Current steering, no?? I am NOT a pro, so I gotta ask-- are the 2 highs trying to meet? I *know* what models show. I *know* FL is not likely to be hit, but when I go back on that map a couple of clicks (3 hr time spans), it looks like the gap between the highs is narrowing. Now, I may be completely wrong, and if so, PLEASE educate

yes the gap has closed some and we are awaiting the next shortwave to push it back open.. well that what the models keep saying. how long it holds will determine how much florida will get. right now its appears very slightly west of the nhc forecast track.

nhc track kept it east of Long islands and it appears it will go right over it.

[KWT]

looks like a pinhole eye, eerily similar to Wilma's.. wish recon was out there.

It's not quite the same as Wilma, though for sure it is quite tight!

I too would love to see what recon would show if it was out there, when is the next recon mission?

[SunnyThoughts]

Something that concerns me about Irene is the pin-hole eye it has. It seems that storms that had these eyes in the past not only intensified quickly, but the day after having that type of eye the storm expanded greatly in size both in EYE and WINDS. A good example was Hurricane Wilma on October 19th, 2005 with its pinhole eye, followed by Wilma with a very big eye on October 20th and 21st as it neared Cancun.

Correct me if I"m wrong, but the reason the storms with the pin hole eyes usually expand so much, is because those pin hole eyes can't hold on for very long..an ERC happens and everything gets expanded outwards as the new larger eye takes hold.

[Battlebrick]

Wilma 2005, pinhole eye



Wilma 2005, after EWRC



Wilma did have like -90c cloud tops around the eye, so I guess it's different.

[Canelaw99]

Thank you Aric! Hopefully that shortwave is approaching as it's supposed to...????

[sittingduck]

When I look at Irene in the Atlantic wide view it looks like she is quite a bit bigger.

[cycloneye]

looks like a pinhole eye, eerily similar to Wilma's.. wish recon was out there.

It's not quite the same as Wilma, though for sure it is quite tight!

I too would love to see what recon would show if it was out there, when is the next recon mission?

Next two flights will depart at 4 PM EDT and 5:15 EDT by NOAA and AF.

Code: Select all

 FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 73
                                 A. 25/00Z,06Z
       FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 42   B. AFXXX 1709A IRENE
       A. 25/00Z                 C. 24/2115Z
       B. NOAA2 1609A IRENE      D. 23.6N 75.2W
       C. 24/20Z                 E. 24/2330Z TO 25/06Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT



[tropicwatch]

I believe the next flight takes off around 4:15 central 5:15 eastern.

Tropicwatch

[FireRat]

Something that concerns me about Irene is the pin-hole eye it has. It seems that storms that had these eyes in the past not only intensified quickly, but the day after having that type of eye the storm expanded greatly in size both in EYE and WINDS. A good example was Hurricane Wilma on October 19th, 2005 with its pinhole eye, followed by Wilma with a very big eye on October 20th and 21st as it neared Cancun.

Correct me if I"m wrong, but the reason the storms with the pin hole eyes usually expand so much, is because those pin hole eyes can't hold on for very long..an ERC happens and everything gets expanded outwards as the new larger eye takes hold.

You're right about that, good call. That's exactly what occurred with Wilma. EWRC may happen late tonight, "monster eye" takes over tomorrow!

[tolakram]

For the wobble watchers.

NHC track



latest vis

[KWT]

Thanks guys, so not that long to wait now really till the enxt round of recon, I think we'll find a system into the 940s...

[rainstorm]

JB says norfolk/vab will get 60-80 sustained, 100 gusts

hatteras 120-130 gusts. 100 gusts on jersey shore. 120 possible on long island.

[KWT]

hatteras 120-130 gusts. 100 gusts on jersey shore. 120 possible on long island.

IMO 120 (mph?) sounds too high, it will be a strong system even up that far north but if it hits central/eastern then I expect you could know a solid 25-40mph off that.

Still would be very notable....and importantly a very long way out still...

[Aric Dunn]

southern portion of long islands (bahamas) should be in the eye within the next hour.

[fci]

JB says norfolk/vab will get 60-80 sustained, 100 gusts

hatteras 120-130 gusts. 100 gusts on jersey shore. 120 possible on long island.

With all due respect to JB, I think his predictions are way high.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

Also On its present course ( if unchanged ) would take it across long island and into exuma in the next 6 hours. by which time it would very far off the forecast path.. needs to start turning now not in an hour.. passing west of forecast point now.