ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Vortex]

May be or about to undergo RI, Hang on folks...

[Dave]

[Macrocane]

An there were people saying that the season was over after Philippe Could a special advisory be underway?

[maxx9512]

Weather Channel just said quite possible a special advisory issued before 5:00PM on the 1:50PM Tropical update.
Said the Hurricane Hunters found hurricane force winds at flight level. Rina ain't wasting no time!

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure on first pass by recon was 992 mbs.

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 241751
XXAA 74188 99175 70834 04573 99006 26016 00540 00050 25218 01047
92733 22036 02050 85464 16809 02549 88999 77999
31313 09608 81731
61616 AF306 0218A RINA OB 09
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1746N08342W 1733 MBL WND 01551 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 01549 005842 WL150 01548 084 REL 1749N08341W 173114 SPG 1746N0
8342W 173323 =
XXBB 74188 99175 70834 04573 00006 26016 11973 23420 22887 19842
33856 18817 44850 16809
21212 00006 00540 11999 01048 22979 01552 33931 02052 44888 01544
55855 02048 66842 02550
31313 09608 81731
61616 AF306 0218A RINA OB 09
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1746N08342W 1733 MBL WND 01551 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 01549 005842 WL150 01548 084 REL 1749N08341W 173114 SPG 1746N0
8342W 173323 =
;

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 241752
XXAA 74188 99173 70832 04573 99003 25815 01051 00027 25615 01055
92711 21220 03056 85440 14605 03560 88999 77999
31313 09608 81735
61616 AF306 0218A RINA OB 10
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1730N08326W 1737 MBL WND 02056 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 03057 002843 WL150 01557 083 REL 1733N08324W 173523 SPG 1730N0
8326W 173738 =
XXBB 74188 99173 70832 04573 00003 25815 11904 20433 22859 17810
33850 14605
21212 00003 01051 11996 01061 22989 01556 33978 02059 44963 02553
55857 03560 66843 03559
31313 09608 81735
61616 AF306 0218A RINA OB 10
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1730N08326W 1737 MBL WND 02056 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 03057 002843 WL150 01557 083 REL 1733N08324W 173523 SPG 1730N0
8326W 173738 =
;

[cycloneye]

Nobody posted the 11 AM advisory so here it is.

TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT RINA HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH THE CENTER LOCATED WELL WITHIN THE LARGE AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T AND CI NUMBERS...
AND A RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE SUPPORT INCREASING THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED TO 40 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF RINA.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...
AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AND VERY WARM
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...
SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...AND LATER IN THE
PERIOD...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WEAKENING OF
RINA BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPDATED NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN
THE STATISTICAL SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GFDL/HWRF MODELS.

RECENT GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT RINA
IS BEGINNING ITS TURN TOWARD THE LEFT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 320/5. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THIS RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...IT SHOULD ALLOW RINA TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD.
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...RINA IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE RETREATS AND A BROAD TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
AND KEEPING RINA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY THROUGH 96 HOURS...BUT NOW SHOWS A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION THEREAFTER. THE NEW TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH
THE TVCA AND HFIP MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 17.1N 82.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 17.4N 83.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 17.6N 84.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 17.8N 84.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 18.1N 85.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 19.2N 87.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 20.5N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 21.0N 86.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE OB 09

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 17:51Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 18
Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 09

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 18Z on the 24th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 17.5N 83.4W
Location: 182 miles (292 km) to the SW (227°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
Marsden Square: 045 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1006mb (29.71 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 24.4°C (75.9°F) 5° (from the N) 40 knots (46 mph)
1000mb 50m (164 ft) 25.2°C (77.4°F) 23.4°C (74.1°F) 10° (from the N) 47 knots (54 mph)
925mb 733m (2,405 ft) 22.0°C (71.6°F) 18.4°C (65.1°F) 20° (from the NNE) 50 knots (58 mph)
850mb 1,464m (4,803 ft) 16.8°C (62.2°F) 15.9°C (60.6°F) 25° (from the NNE) 49 knots (56 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 17:31Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in maximum wind band.

Splash Location: 17.46N 83.42W
Splash Time: 17:33Z

Release Location: 17.49N 83.41W View map)
Release Time: 17:31:14Z

Splash Location: 17.46N 83.42W (
Splash Time: 17:33:23Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 15° (from the NNE)
- Wind Speed: 51 knots (59 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 15° (from the NNE)
- Wind Speed: 49 knots (56 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 842mb to 1005mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 15° (from the NNE)
- Wind Speed: 48 knots (55 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1006mb (Surface) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 24.4°C (75.9°F)
973mb 23.4°C (74.1°F) 21.4°C (70.5°F)
887mb 19.8°C (67.6°F) 15.6°C (60.1°F)
856mb 18.8°C (65.8°F) 17.1°C (62.8°F)
850mb 16.8°C (62.2°F) 15.9°C (60.6°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1006mb (Surface) 5° (from the N) 40 knots (46 mph)
999mb 10° (from the N) 48 knots (55 mph)
979mb 15° (from the NNE) 52 knots (60 mph)
931mb 20° (from the NNE) 52 knots (60 mph)
888mb 15° (from the NNE) 44 knots (51 mph)
855mb 20° (from the NNE) 48 knots (55 mph)
842mb 25° (from the NNE) 50 knots (58 mph)


---



[Vortex]

Lowest pressure on first pass by recon was 992 mbs.

Based on the rapid pressure falls, and satellite presentation of a developing eye like feature we may be in a period of RI. Hats off to the HWRF that indicated this robust strenthening.

[wxman57]

If Rina does rapidly intensifty couldnt she move further north like the HWRF and GFDL were showing last night?

everytime we have a storm coming across the Atlantic and the recurve argument comes up ,the stronger, the more poleward it goes, I don't see why it would be different here

No difference here, except that there are limitations as to how far poleward it can track before it runs into some very strong westerly winds across the southern Gulf. Hurricanes can't track perpendicular to the mid to upper-level wind flow.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241756
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 22 20111024
174700 1652N 08248W 8426 01501 0007 +187 +132 230045 045 042 005 00
174730 1651N 08247W 8435 01502 0023 +176 +137 228043 043 040 004 00
174800 1650N 08245W 8429 01515 0033 +170 +137 230044 045 040 003 00
174830 1648N 08244W 8429 01518 0040 +169 +138 227045 046 039 001 00
174900 1647N 08243W 8433 01520 0045 +166 +141 225045 045 039 001 00
174930 1646N 08242W 8423 01530 0048 +169 +141 225046 047 041 001 00
175000 1645N 08241W 8430 01529 0053 +168 +141 226044 045 041 001 00
175030 1644N 08239W 8428 01535 0055 +172 +137 233047 048 040 002 00
175100 1643N 08238W 8427 01541 0062 +167 +138 234045 046 042 001 00
175130 1642N 08237W 8430 01538 0065 +166 +146 238043 045 040 002 00
175200 1640N 08236W 8432 01543 0068 +168 +146 234040 041 038 002 00
175230 1639N 08234W 8432 01544 0067 +172 +142 234041 042 035 003 00
175300 1638N 08233W 8429 01547 0063 +183 +135 238038 040 037 002 00
175330 1637N 08232W 8429 01551 0066 +185 +130 241037 038 038 001 00
175400 1636N 08231W 8429 01553 0072 +180 +134 237036 037 035 000 03
175430 1634N 08229W 8430 01554 0076 +176 +136 240036 037 032 000 00
175500 1633N 08228W 8431 01555 0079 +176 +134 240034 035 029 000 00
175530 1632N 08227W 8430 01555 0080 +175 +134 244034 034 029 000 03
175600 1631N 08226W 8431 01557 0078 +181 +133 242033 033 031 000 00
175630 1630N 08224W 8425 01565 0076 +191 +128 234031 032 033 000 00
$$
;

[psyclone]

If Rina does rapidly intensifty couldnt she move further north like the HWRF and GFDL were showing last night?

Does it really matter if 50kt of windshear awaits the storm should it try to head north? that's a tropical cyclone wood chipper. it doesn't matter whether you feed a cat 5 into it or a td....the only thing left will be shavings. now if things change and that wall of wind shear and hostile conditions disappeared, things would be much more interesting. but as of now i feel like we're protected by an atmospheric great wall of china. BTW Rina looks awesome right now!


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 241753
XXAA 74188 99171 70830 04573 99991 26820 06006 00583 ///// /////
92605 22205 08006 85340 18817 36003 88999 77999
31313 09608 81740
61616 AF306 0218A RINA OB 11
62626 EYE SPL 1711N08305W 1742 MBL WND 06508 AEV 20802 DLM WND 06
006 990843 WL150 06007 083 REL 1712N08305W 174036 SPG 1711N08305W
174205 =
XXBB 74188 99171 70830 04573 00991 26820 11850 18817 22843 18022
21212 00991 06006 11944 07008 22860 03503 33843 34004
31313 09608 81740
61616 AF306 0218A RINA OB 11
62626 EYE SPL 1711N08305W 1742 MBL WND 06508 AEV 20802 DLM WND 06
006 990843 WL150 06007 083 REL 1712N08305W 174036 SPG 1711N08305W
174205 =
;

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 241758
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 24/17:40:40Z
B. 17 deg 07 min N
083 deg 03 min W
C. 850 mb 1346 m
D. 65 kt
E. 319 deg 11 nm
F. 052 deg 68 kt
G. 320 deg 10 nm
H. 991 mb
I. 14 C / 1460 m
J. 19 C / 1521 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 0218A RINA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 68 KT NW QUAD 17:37:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 360 / 15 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[Dave]

DECODED VDM 0B 8

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 17:58Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2011
Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 17:40:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°07'N 83°03'W (17.1167N 83.05W)
B. Center Fix Location: 187 miles (300 km) to the SW (216°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,346m (4,416ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NW (319°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 52° at 68kts (From the NE at ~ 78.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NW (320°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,460m (4,790ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:37:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the N (360°) from the flight level center

[wxman57]

WTNT63 KNHC 241804
TCUAT3

TROPICAL STORM RINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
205 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RINA
HAS STRENGTHENED. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO
UPGRADE RINA TO A HURRICANE AND TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

[fci]

I think we are very fortunate in South Florida that the screaming shear and west winds over the GOM are going to keep a Hurricane from getting here, like Wilma. Rina is ramping up and the protective shield looks like it is being raised for us.
I'm still going to watch very closely to make sure that it verifies though (I'm a skeptic until I actually see it happen).

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241806
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 23 20111024
175700 1628N 08223W 8431 01560 0076 +194 +126 227030 030 033 000 33
175730 1627N 08222W 8428 01567 0078 +192 +126 231030 031 033 000 00
175800 1626N 08221W 8432 01564 0083 +189 +128 231031 031 032 000 03
175830 1625N 08220W 8433 01563 0086 +187 +128 230030 031 032 000 00
175900 1624N 08218W 8429 01569 0087 +184 +127 228028 029 033 000 00
175930 1622N 08217W 8428 01569 0090 +183 +126 225026 027 032 000 00
180000 1621N 08216W 8429 01571 0091 +183 +124 219025 026 033 000 03
180030 1620N 08215W 8430 01570 0091 +185 +123 221027 027 031 000 00
180100 1619N 08214W 8428 01575 0093 +183 +121 224025 026 031 000 03
180130 1618N 08212W 8429 01573 0095 +181 +119 224023 025 029 000 00
180200 1617N 08211W 8431 01572 0096 +182 +117 224023 023 027 000 00
180230 1616N 08210W 8431 01573 0096 +184 +115 216022 022 028 000 03
180300 1614N 08209W 8429 01575 0096 +184 +113 212022 022 027 000 03
180330 1613N 08208W 8430 01575 0097 +182 +115 212022 022 028 000 00
180400 1612N 08206W 8428 01577 0098 +182 +115 212022 022 029 000 00
180430 1611N 08205W 8432 01573 0099 +182 +115 210021 021 030 000 00
180500 1610N 08204W 8429 01578 0100 +180 +115 208020 021 029 000 03
180530 1609N 08203W 8429 01577 0102 +180 +117 209019 020 030 000 00
180600 1608N 08202W 8429 01577 0103 +179 +117 212018 019 029 000 03
180630 1606N 08201W 8432 01575 0103 +180 +116 214019 020 028 000 00
$$
;