ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Nimbus]

The models will change a lot in the comming days,so what you say about the same track as Emily is still not a stone. Stay tuned for the future runs to see what track and intensity they will show.

Emily was nice didn't even have to take the planters in the house, just a few puddles to wade through. 92L is far enough behind Emily that it probably will not be influenced, it would be insane to speculate on any continental US landfall this early.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Nothing regarding this system in the 2:00pm TWO

[Rgv20]

Not surprising since 92L should not pose a threat to develop until it reaches 50W to 55W as the environment in the Eastern Atlantic is not all that great. My best guess as to when its going to reach 50W will be on Friday or Saturday, we still have plenty of time to watch it.

[Rgv20]

12z GFS has it at 168 hours well NE of the Leewards.

http://img508.imageshack.us/img508/5087/gfsten168l.gif

In my opinion 12zGFS is to aggressive with development and I would be more inclined to believe the 6zGFS which keeps 92L weak and moving westward eventually reaching the Lesser Antilles by Saturday.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR EAST ATLC ANALYZED FROM
17N19W TO 11N21W...MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALED A SHARP LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHERN
EXTENSION OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

[cycloneye]

Finnally the first model plots for 92L!!

Recurves well east of the islands.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 071827
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1827 UTC SUN AUG 7 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110807 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110807  1800   110808  0600   110808  1800   110809  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.5N  21.0W   11.9N  22.4W   12.3N  24.3W   12.6N  26.5W
BAMD    11.5N  21.0W   12.2N  22.4W   13.2N  24.3W   14.2N  26.6W
BAMM    11.5N  21.0W   12.1N  22.6W   12.8N  24.6W   13.3N  26.9W
LBAR    11.5N  21.0W   12.0N  23.1W   12.9N  25.7W   14.0N  28.5W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          37KTS          44KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          37KTS          44KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110809  1800   110810  1800   110811  1800   110812  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.9N  29.1W   13.2N  34.5W   13.6N  40.3W   15.1N  46.5W
BAMD    15.4N  29.3W   17.5N  35.6W   20.1N  42.0W   23.9N  47.4W
BAMM    13.9N  29.6W   14.7N  35.8W   15.3N  42.9W   16.2N  49.7W
LBAR    15.3N  31.8W   18.3N  38.6W   22.4N  43.6W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        52KTS          64KTS          70KTS          74KTS
DSHP        52KTS          64KTS          70KTS          74KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.5N LONCUR =  21.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
LATM12 =  11.5N LONM12 =  18.9W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  10.9N LONM24 =  16.4W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


Uploaded by Imageshack.us

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 92, 2011080718, , BEST, 0, 115N, 210W, 25, 1009, DB

[KWT]

Models do recurve eastwards but the models are probably somewhat overdoing the early strength of the system...

I expect it to lift out to say 13-15N then near due west till it develops, then once it does/if it does develop I think thats when it'll gain latitude.

Pattern shift of some sort may well happen in the 10-14 day range which will mean it could be a close call.

[KWT]

Heading due west for now, I suspect it'll probably try to lfit up somewhat once it tries to develop but its when that occurs that will be key, if it takes long enough a track like Emily seems reasonable, maybe a little east...

[srainhoutx]

The Euro has a weak 850 vort reflection S of Hispaniola/E Cuba @ hour 192, for what it's worth.

[somethingfunny]

Grain of salt there, that model plot only contains the BAM suite and the CLP5!
Although I can't see anything crossing the basin if it develops that far east. If it waits a while to develop, who knows.

[Macrocane]

So the only global models that show some sort of development is the GFS and the experimental FIM, the UKMET and NOGAPS lose it in a few days, and the Euro and CMC do nothing with it.

[ROCK]

Heading due west for now, I suspect it'll probably try to lfit up somewhat once it tries to develop but its when that occurs that will be key, if it takes long enough a track like Emily seems reasonable, maybe a little east...

that is what happened in 05.....the TW's didnt develope until past 50W due to a lower pressures in the carib and favorable conditions aloft.......I wouldnt discount a Katrina nor Rita type track as we go into August....

As far as the death ridge here in TX....cant foressee that far in the future with certainty that it will hold 2 weeks from now....

[vacanechaser]

the thing i will say about the models... they have been pretty bad in the early runs of systems all year for the most part... the globals have failed to even pick up on several of the systems this season just before they developed.. right now, i trust none of them...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[ROCK]

12Z GFS- recurve

deleted already been posted...

[ROCK]

the thing i will say about the models... they have been pretty bad in the early runs of systems all year for the most part... the globals have failed to even pick up on several of the systems this season just before they developed.. right now, i trust none of them...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

yep especially the GFS....didnt see the first few...

[cycloneye]

i trust none of them...

Certainly Jesse, this year has been not normal the performance so far. Let's see when the real peak of the season comes after mid August and see if things change. (Except the Euro with Don that was very good)

[ROCK]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif

here is your weak reflection coming from the EURO at 192hr....good catch Steve I didnt even see it...

[cycloneye]

The Storm2k models graphic.

[cycloneye]

The Storm2k models graphic.