WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm (14W/Mina)

[dexterlabio]

The area of convection near Guam looks promising to have another TC formation, in my opinion.

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[dexterlabio]

Latest run from ECM quite the same but in 8/29 it seems that they merged.

[dexterlabio]

Just a trivia...in 2007 there was also a typhoon locally named "Mina" (Mitag) which had a DCI with a tropical storm named "Lando" (Hagibis)... Hagibis was in Vietnam and it made a "U-turn", re-entering the Philippine territory to make its second landfall. Now another "Mina" might be involved with another Fujiwara effect.

[phwxenthusiast]

SSMI got a great shot of 96W and the developing bands..


looks like some new convection firing near and over the possible LLC location:

[Infdidoll]

Just had a friend contact me telling me her high school age daughter was telling her they would be missing the first day of school because there was a typhoon coming. She wanted me to bust that rumor...LOL - First day of school for a lot of kids here is the 29th. You bet the kiddos are excited for one or two extra days of summer loafing.

[Typhoon Hunter]

More total mess on the Euro - two well formed TCs merging into one?!? And whole thing looks to repeat itself at end of run with two more TCs forming close to each other.

All I can say is good luck to the agencies over the next few days, a complicated picture emerging!

[dexterlabio]

Expecting a very active week for TC's until the end of the month. Euro becoming quite consistent with a twin typhoon-fujiwara thing, huh... Excited to see how things will turn out in the coming days, but this time my interest is torn between WPAC and ATL with Irene bombing out in PR. Let's see what will be our bet in the Western Pacific.

[Chacor]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 14.5N 128.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[supercane]

12Z JMA update:
WWJP25 RJTD 221200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 221200.
WARNING VALID 231200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1000 HPA
AT 63N 163E SIBERIA MOVING SOUTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 14.6N 127.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 141E 42N 143E
51N 157E 51N 168E 60N 169E 60N 180E 38N 180E 38N 160E 38N 150E 36N
141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 32N 126E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 48N 154E ESE 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 120E TO 31N 123E 32N 126E 34N 131E 35N 134E
36N 140E 39N 145E 40N 151E 42N 156E 43N 162E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WTPH20 RPMM 221200
TTT WARNING 05
AT 1200 22 AUGUST TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON
SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE
TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT
ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH WEAS WITHIN
ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE
THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT
231200 ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT ZERO
EAST 241200 ONE NINE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT
TWO EAST AND AT 251200 TWO ONE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE
FOUR POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE
REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER
MANILA PD
WEATHER MANILA=

JTWC had to reissue TCFA:
WTPN21 PGTW 221400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211351ZAUG2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8N 127.6E TO 18.4N 127.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.4N 127.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3N
127.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 127.5E, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE CONVECTIVE BANDS IN TERMS OF ORGANIZATION AND DEPTH.
A 221115Z 37 HZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, DEPICTED AS A NOTCH, IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
AREA THAT HAS FLARED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT, FOR THE MOST PART,
REMAINS FRAGMENTED. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE DIVERGENCE AND LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETRY PASSES SHOW 10-15 KT
WIND BARBS AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 20 KNOTS
ALONG THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PERIPHERIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 231400Z.//
NNNN

TXPQ25 KNES 221527
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)
B. 22/1501Z
C. 15.2N
D. 127.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...DT=2.0 BASED ON .4 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=2.0. MET=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SCHWARTZ

[RL3AO]

14W.FOURTEEN

[StormingB81]

I dont believe what I am seeing deom EXMWF..is that both storms hitting us or consolidating into one as it comes over the islands?

[supercane]

JTWC took its time writing the first advisory:

WTPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 128.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 128.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 15.3N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.6N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.9N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.2N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.7N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.7N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.3N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 128.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND CONSOLIDATION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 221318Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS 20-25 KNOT
WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE 221200Z PGTW GRADIENT
LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW IS WELL-
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES AND INTO THE EQUATORWARD
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A 221725Z AMSRE IMAGE SHOWS AN ABUNDANCE OF
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. WATER
VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS A WELL-ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
VENTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CHANNEL IS A RESULT OF
INTERACTION WITH A STATIONARY TUTT CELL EAST OF THE RYUKYUS. TD 14W
IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THAT IS PART OF A DEVELOPING
MONSOON GYRE. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOW INTENSIFICATION AS IT
TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48, THEN ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS A PERIOD OF DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH
ANOTHER DEVELOPING CYCLONE. THE SECOND CYCLONE IS IN THE GENITIVE
STAGES, WEST OF THE MARIANAS. THERE IS GOOD QUALITATIVE AGREEMENT IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE IMPENDING FORMATION OF A MONSOON
GYRE OVER WESTPAC, BUT WIDE DISPARITY REGARDING THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF TD 14W DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. SUCH DISAGREEMENT IS
TO BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE INTRINSIC COMPLEXITY AND THE EARLY STAGE OF
THE DEVELOPING GYRE. THE JTWC TRACK USES CONSTANT BEARING AND RATE
OF MOVEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, THEN STAYS BETWEEN CONSENSUS AND ECMWF
IN THE EXTENDED RANGES. THE INTENSIFICATION RATE WILL BE SLOWER THAN
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD 14W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 221800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z
AND 232100Z.//
NNNN

JMA 18Z analysis:
WWJP25 RJTD 221800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 221800.
WARNING VALID 231800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1000 HPA
AT 61N 167E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING SOUTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 15.4N 126.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 46N 150E
50N 155E 51N 162E 60N 167E 60N 180E 36N 180E 38N 165E 38N 150E 35N
141E 42N 143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 32N 126E EAST 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 24N 140E WSW 10 KT.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 48N 156E ESE 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 118E TO 31N 123E 32N 126E 34N 131E 36N 135E
38N 142E 40N 146E 41N 151E 42N 155E 43N 160E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Latest Dvorak estimates consensus 2.0/30kt from SAB and JTWC:
TXPQ25 KNES 222153
TCSWNP
A. 14W (NONAME)
B. 22/2101Z
C. 15.7N
D. 127.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...DT OF 2.0 BASED ON .3 BANDING. MET IS 3.0 WITH PT OF 2.5.
FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...LIDDICK

TPPN11 PGTW 221818
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (E OF PHILIPPINES)
B. 22/1732Z
C. 15.1N
D. 127.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION IS FLAIRING WITH
DIURNAL MAXIMUM. A CONVECTIVE WRAP OF .35 ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. PT AGREES, WHILE MET IS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HOUGH

[KWT]

Not exactly the most agressive forecast from the JWTC I see...

[StormingB81]

I thought looking at this they would go a little stronger then a tropical storm..but who knows..

[StormingB81]

Looks like models are all over the place now..now looks like it will be well south of Okinawa may make a circle..

[Turtle]

Looks like models are all over the place now..now looks like it will be well south of Okinawa may make a circle..

How was the last tropical system? I heard Kadena got ~40" of rain, but my grandpa (who lives in Naha City) said there wasn't that much rain. Does the water just quickly drain over there?

[StormingB81]

Looks like models are all over the place now..now looks like it will be well south of Okinawa may make a circle..

How was the last tropical system? I heard Kadena got ~40" of rain, but my grandpa (who lives in Naha City) said there wasn't that much rain. Does the water just quickly drain over there?

ISome placed flooded...some didn't we had alot of rain here I am just south of Kadena. I guess it would just depend on where you are at and how the land is for draining quickly...looks like some models are saying it wont hit here..but the look all over the place now jus tgoing ot have to wait a couple of days and see what the track does

[phwxenthusiast]

Looks like models are all over the place now..now looks like it will be well south of Okinawa may make a circle..

How was the last tropical system? I heard Kadena got ~40" of rain, but my grandpa (who lives in Naha City) said there wasn't that much rain. Does the water just quickly drain over there?

the heaviest of rains fell to the north of Naha, near the base... i believe Naha and places south only got 150-250mm...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Not exactly the most agressive forecast from the JWTC I see...

To be expected given the huge uncertainty over the Guam blob's development and potential DCI with 14W. Who the hell knows what's going to happen lol, that's why I hate (potential) Fujiwhara so much!

I dont believe what I am seeing deom EXMWF..is that both storms hitting us or consolidating into one as it comes over the islands?

No, only one storm near you and well offshore to NE so it wouldn't be a big deal for Okinawa. Obviously given the crazy solutions ECMWF has been sprouting recently I wouldn't pay much attention to any single run until one or both of these storms are fully formed.

[supercane]

JMA issues its first advisory:
ZCZC 243
WTPQ20 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 15.4N 127.2E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 16.0N 127.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
NNNN

00Z JTWC satellite bulletin with Dvorak estimate of 2.5/35kt:
TPPN11 PGTW 230029
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (E OF THE PHILIPPINES)
B. 22/2332Z
C. 15.7N
D. 127.4E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. A CONVECTIVE WRAP OF .40 YIELDS
A DT OF 2.5. PT AGREES, WHILE MET IS AT 3.0. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HOUGH