WPAC: TALAS - Remnants (1112/15W)

[euro6208]

T3.0/3.0 TALAS

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 / 989.1mb/ 37.0kt



very large

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 22.8N 139.6E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 325NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 280600UTC 23.6N 139.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 290600UTC 24.3N 139.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 300600UTC 26.1N 139.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 22.8N 139.6E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 325NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 281200UTC 23.4N 139.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 291200UTC 24.1N 139.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 301200UTC 26.0N 139.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 311200UTC 28.2N 139.7E 240NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
120HF 011200UTC 30.9N 140.7E 300NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT =

[RobWESTPACWX]

First actual ob confirmation at IWO TO, with winds of 36kts now showing it does actually have TS winds..

[supercane]

I was willing to believe ASCAT, Rob, but it's always good to have ground truth.
18Z JMA advisory:

ZCZC 365
WTPQ51 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271800UTC 22.8N 139.6E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 325NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 281800UTC 23.4N 139.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 291800UTC 24.2N 139.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 301800UTC 26.0N 139.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 311800UTC 28.2N 139.6E 240NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
120HF 011800UTC 30.9N 140.4E 300NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT =
NNNN
Latest IR still monsoon-depression like:

Latest Dvorak estimate from JTWC:
TPPN12 PGTW 271819
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS)
B. 27/1732Z
C. 22.6N
D. 139.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .80 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. PT AND MET YIELD A 3.0. DT NOT
CONSIDERED REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO FRAGMENTED/BROKEN CNVCTN, SO
FT IS BASED ON PT AND MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
UEHARA
Latest ASCAT shows wide wind field, actually more consolidated than previously:

[supercane]

21Z JTWC advisory:

WTPN32 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 22.9N 139.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 139.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.3N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 24.1N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 24.9N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 25.7N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 27.1N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 28.9N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 31.0N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 23.2N 139.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LAST
24 HOURS OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW THE SYSTEM TRENDING FROM AN
EXPANSIVE, LOOSELY ORGANIZED CIRCULATION WITH A RELATIVELY OPEN
CENTER INTO A MORE TIGHTLY ORGANIZED, CONCENTRIC STORM. SYSTEM
INTENSITY HAS HELD STEADY DURING THIS CONSOLIDATION PERIOD. THE
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION OF
THE STORM ARE THE RESULT OF COMPLEX AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS.
THE 271200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE 28TH LATITUDE,
WHICH IS PART OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
EXTENDS ALONG THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE STORM. TS 15W IS
EFFECTIVELY TRAPPED BETWEEN THE TWO, UNDERNEATH A NARROW AND DIFFUSE
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE TUTT FILLING AND GENERAL IMPROVEMENT IN OUTFLOW
THAT IS CONDUCIVE TO SLOW INTENSIFICATION. CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 28 DEGREES.
ALTHOUGH THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN IS RESULTING IN DISPARITIES IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE EXISTS AN OVERALL QUALITATIVE AGREEMENT ON
A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND MILD INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. THE ANTICYCLONE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST OF KYUSHU, LEAVING A NARROW WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, AS A
JET MAX CURRENTLY BLASTING OVER MANCHURIA IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A
MAJOR ALTERATION TO THE PATTERN, WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMING ALONG
THE 155TH MERIDIAN. TS 15W WILL BE FORCED POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE RIDGE. THE PRECISE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE THE
DETERMINING FACTOR IN HOW FAR WESTWARD, AND HOW CLOSE TO MAINLAND
JAPAN, TS 15W TRACKS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[supercane]

00Z JMA advisory:

ZCZC 719
WTPQ51 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280000UTC 22.8N 139.6E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 325NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 290000UTC 23.4N 139.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 300000UTC 24.6N 139.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 310000UTC 26.7N 138.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 010000UTC 29.0N 139.3E 240NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
120HF 020000UTC 31.1N 140.4E 300NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT =
NNNN

Latest Dvorak estimates consensus 3.0 from US agencies:
TPPN12 PGTW 280011
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS)
B. 27/2332Z
C. 22.7N
D. 139.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .90 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. PT AND MET YIELD A 3.0. DT NOT
CONSIDERED REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO CNVCTN BEING FRAGMENTED, SO FT
IS BASED ON PT AND MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
27/1851Z 23.2N 139.7E SSMI
27/2040Z 23.2N 139.7E SSMS
27/2217Z 23.2N 139.8E AMSU
27/2243Z 23.3N 139.6E SSMS
UEHARA

TXPQ26 KNES 272113
TCSWNP
A. 15W (TALAS)
B. 27/2032Z
C. 22.9N
D. 139.8E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU/AMSRE
H. REMARKS...DT=3.5 BASED ON .8 BANDING ON LOG10 SPIRAL.
PT=3.0. MET=3.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
27/1602Z 23.0N 140.0E AMSU
27/1603Z 22.7N 139.9E AMSRE
...SCHWARTZ

[supercane]

WTPN32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 22.9N 139.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 139.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 23.3N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 24.1N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 25.1N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 26.0N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 27.5N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 29.3N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 31.3N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 139.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM
SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPN32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM
SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO TIGHTEN AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CONVECTION IS NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP, AS REVEALED
IN A 272243Z SSMIS IMAGE, BUT THE LOWER FREQUENCY IMAGE DOES SHOW
THAT THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS NOW COMPLETELY ENCIRCLED THE LLCC.
DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE REMAINED STEADY AT 45 KNOTS, BUT THE OBSERVED
CONSOLIDATION INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY.
SURFACE REPORTS AND A 280003Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOW THAT GALE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD FROM THE LLCC NEARLY TO IWO TO. THE BROAD LLCC AND
SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION OF THE STORM ARE A RESULT OF WEAK AND
COMPLEX WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
REVEALS AN ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE 28TH
LATITUDE, WHICH IS PART OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHILE THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE STORM. TS
15W IS EFFECTIVELY TRAPPED BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES, BENEATH A NARROW
AND DIFFUSE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. RECENT ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANDING RADIAL OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 28 DEGREES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. THE ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST OF KYUSHU, LEAVING A NARROW WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE HOLDS STEADY AND
STATIONARY, TS 15W WILL TAKE A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK BETWEEN THE
135TH AND 140TH PARALLELS. ALTHOUGH THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN IS
RESULTING IN DISPARITIES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE EXISTS AN
OVERALL QUALITATIVE AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK AND SLOW AND
STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
C. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE EXTENDED RANGE DUE TO A MAJOR
IMPENDING PATTERN CHANGE INVOLVING THE ESTABLISHMENT OF AN OMEGA
BLOCK ALONG THE 155TH MERIDIAN NEAR TAU 96. AS THE BLOCK SETS UP, TS
14W WILL BE PREVENTED FROM TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AND THUS AWAY FROM
THE JAPANESE COAST. THE PRECISE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE THE
DETERMINING FACTOR IN HOW FAR WESTWARD, AND HOW CLOSE TO MAINLAND
JAPAN, TS 15W TRACKS. WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN, GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING TOWARDS A CLOSER PASSAGE TO MAINLAND JAPAN. THE LIGHTER
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE WILL ALSO LEAVE A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE TRACK OF 15W, WHICH, COUPLED WITH THE
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WILL ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.//
NNNN
Large windfield seen on ASCAT:

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280600UTC 22.8N 139.6E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 325NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 290600UTC 23.5N 139.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 300600UTC 24.8N 139.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 310600UTC 26.9N 138.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[RobWESTPACWX]

UK Model really wants to submerge Japan here, don't think is going to happen though and it will turn before reaching the mainland.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[RobWESTPACWX]

Latest JMA track pulls towards the Kanto Plain yet again.

[Infdidoll]

Keep waiting for this one to get a move on! Can't believe how slow-moving it seems to be. Japan may be spared the bigger threat this storm was predicted to be, at first.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Tokyo is really going to need to watch this closely, yet I don't think it will be as intense as currently forecasted, still going to be a rough one.

[supercane]

12Z advisory roundup:

ZCZC 263
WTPQ51 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 22.9N 139.6E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 291200UTC 23.5N 139.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 301200UTC 25.8N 138.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 311200UTC 28.2N 137.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 011200UTC 31.2N 138.7E 240NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
120HF 021200UTC 34.8N 141.0E 300NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT =
NNNN
and 15Z update:
WTPQ21 RJTD 281500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281500UTC 23.1N 139.9E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 291500UTC 24.0N 139.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 301200UTC 25.8N 138.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 311200UTC 28.2N 137.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

WTPN32 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 23.3N 140.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 140.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 23.8N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 24.2N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 24.8N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 25.9N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 28.0N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 30.5N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 33.8N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 23.4N 140.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM SOUTH
OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281200Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z,
290900Z AND 291500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPN32 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM SOUTH
OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281117Z
METOP-A IMAGE INDICATE A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A 281117Z PARTIAL
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A STRONGER, MORE TIGHTLY-WRAPPED WIND FIELD WITH
NUMEROUS 45 KNOT WIND VECTORS AROUND THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 15W REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER
JAPAN AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. AS TS
15W STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD PROVIDING A STRONGER POLEWARD STEERING INFLUENCE
THROUGH TAU 72. ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO WITH SIMILAR TRACK SPEEDS AMONG THE DIFFERENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THERE IS STILL A MARKED DISPARITY IN THE TRACK WITH A 175
NM SPREAD AT TAU 72. THE DIFFERENCE IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE TIMING
OF THE TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THE JGSM, GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS
INDICATE A CONTINUED SLOW TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 WHILE
UKMO, ECMWF, GFDN AND WBAR INDICATE A SHARPER, EARLIER TURN. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND ALSO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE
THAT HAD PERSISTED OVER THE LLCC, HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT,
IS WEAKENING ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THEREFORE, TS 15W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 75-80 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. THE STR OVER JAPAN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A
HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER
CENTRAL JAPAN AFTER TAU 120. BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ASCAT,
TS 15W IS A 250-300 NM RADIUS SYSTEM WITH EXTENSIVE GALE FORCE WINDS
EXTENDING OUT TO 180 NM. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT
APPROACHES JAPAN DUE TO INCREASING (MODERATE) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.//
NNNN

TXPQ26 KNES 281608
TCSWNP
A. 15W (TALAS)
B. 28/1501Z
C. 23.6N
D. 140.3E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...BANDING OF 6/10 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET =
2.5 AND PT = 2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...GUILLOT

[RobWESTPACWX]

JMA putting out high wave Advisories up and down the coast, as well as rain advisories farther inland.

[supercane]

18Z JMA advisory (updated with 5 day):
ZCZC 401
WTPQ51 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281800UTC 23.5N 140.1E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 291800UTC 24.7N 140.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 301800UTC 27.1N 138.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 311800UTC 30.0N 138.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 011800UTC 33.1N 140.0E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
120HF 021800UTC 36.9N 141.7E 375NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT =
NNNN

This storm refuses to consolidate itself enough to strengthen. Latest Dvorak estimate still at 3.0:
TPPN12 PGTW 281823
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS)
B. 28/1732Z
C. 23.7N
D. 140.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. A FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE WRAP
OF .65 ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. PT IS 2.5, WHILE
MET IS 3.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HOUGH

[RobWESTPACWX]

Honestly, this one has me worried, I finally get back home to Yoko today and this shows up... I think GFS is really over doing this system though, and I hope I'm right..

[RobWESTPACWX]

Thanks for posting the updates as well SUPERCANE

[supercane]

21Z JTWC advisory with 120hr point landfalling in the Kanto region:

WTPN32 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 23.7N 140.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 140.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 24.4N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 24.9N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 25.6N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 26.7N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 28.8N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 31.6N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 34.9N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 140.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM SOUTH
OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
SLOW CONSOLIDATION AND DEEPENING CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS STILL NOT
CONSOLIDATED OVER THE CORE, THE LATEST AMSUB TEMPERATURE PROFILE
REVEALS A WARM ANOMALY AT 10 KFT. A 281117Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE
DEPICTS A STRONGER, MORE TIGHTLY-WRAPPED WIND FIELD WITH NUMEROUS 45
KNOT WIND VECTORS AROUND THE CENTER. SURFACE REPORTS FROM IWO TO
CONFIRM THAT SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS
EXTEND WELL OVER 100 NM OUTWARDS FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER. TS 15W IS
AN EXPANSIVE SYSTEM IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS UNDER 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE 27 TO 28 DEGREES. THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED
ON A COMBINATION OF AGENCY DVORAK ASSESSMENTS, THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT PASS, AND SURFACE REPORTS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING
ERRATICALLY IN A WEAK AND COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE 24 HOUR
NET MOVEMENT HAS BEEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. THE 281200Z
PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS AN ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE 28TH LATITUDE, WHICH IS PART OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE
EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE STORM. TS 15W IS EFFECTIVELY TRAPPED BETWEEN
THE TWO, UNDERNEATH A NARROW AND DIFFUSE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED
FRAGMENTATION AND FILLING OF THE TUTT OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. THE
WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS SUBSIDENCE INCREASING ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
15W, WHICH IS PROBABLY A FACTOR IN THE EXTREMELY SLOW
INTENSIFICATION. A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE STORM DIRECTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REORIENTS WESTWARD
AND WEAKENS BETWEEN THE 135TH THROUGH 140TH MERIDIANS. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN WILL PROPAGATE
EASTWARD AND BUILD AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE
KYUSHU AND SHIKOKU WILL RETROGRADE TO SOUTHWEST OF KYUSHU. AS IT
DOES SO, THIS WILL OPEN A GAP BETWEEN THE 135TH AND 140TH MERIDIANS
AND TS 15W WILL BEGIN POLEWARD MOVEMENT. IN THE LONGER RANGE, AS THE
OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP AND THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES BETWEEN THE 150TH AND
155TH MERIDIANS, IT WILL BLOCK EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORM AND
DRIVE IT INTO MAINLAND JAPAN. ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF DISPARITY
IN THE GUIDANCE AT SUCH DISTANCE TAUS, MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS
HAVE NARROWED TO A TRACK THAT STRIKES JAPAN BETWEEN ISE WAN AND THE
CHIBA PENINSULA. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST STAYS EAST OF CONSENSUS AND
ECMWF IN ORDER TO COMPENSATE FOR AN EXTREME WESTWARD OUTLIER (EGRR)
AND TO GIVE SLIGHT WEIGHTING TO GFS, WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST CORRECT
IN DELAYING THE WESTWARD TURN. THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL DO A LOT TO
CLARIFY THE TRACK, AS IT BECOMES EVIDENT PRECISELY WHEN ARE WHERE TS
15W MAKES THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INTENSITY PORTION OF THE
FORECAST IS SIMPLER. TS 15W WILL REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 27 DEGREES OR
HIGHER ALONG TRACK. THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL ALSO KEEP UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE KANTO PLAIN. THUS, STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED UP UNTIL LAND INTERACTION BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE STORM.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W
(NANMADOL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Still quite a sprawling system:

[supercane]

00Z JMA advisory:
ZCZC 635
WTPQ51 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 23.7N 140.1E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 300000UTC 25.1N 140.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 310000UTC 27.3N 138.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 010000UTC 30.5N 138.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 020000UTC 34.0N 140.3E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
120HF 030000UTC 39.4N 142.9E 375NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT =
NNNN

Latest Dvorak estimates 2.5/35kt and 3.0/45kt from JTWC and SAB, respectively:
TPPN12 PGTW 290038
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS)
B. 28/2332Z
C. 23.7N
D. 140.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION IS WARMING WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. A FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE WRAP OF .55 ON THE
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT AGREES, WHILE MET IS 3.5.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
28/2027Z 23.8N 140.2E SSMI
28/2231Z 23.7N 140.1E SSMS
28/2252Z 23.6N 140.2E TRMM
HOUGH

TXPQ26 KNES 282116
TCSWNP
A. 15W (TALAS)
B. 28/2032Z
C. 23.8N
D. 140.1E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS... 5/10 BANDING FOR DT=2.5. MET=3.5 WITH PT=3.0. FT IS
BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SALEMI