ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[LeeNess87]

Hi everyone! I am very new here but since Irene I have been reading posts on this website religiously. I am very interested in meteorology and have become more interested recently. I saw in a few earlier posts it was mentioned that if a TC hit 15N before hitting 50W there was a HIGH likelihood of not hitting the US or islands. Is this true? I find that very interesting. Also, what is the conus?

[Blown Away]

Hi everyone! I am very new here but since Irene I have been reading posts on this website religiously. I am very interested in meteorology and have become more interested recently. I saw in a few earlier posts it was mentioned that if a TC hit 15N before hitting 50W there was a HIGH likelihood of not hitting the US or islands. Is this true? I find that very interesting. Also, what is the conus?

Welcome, this board is addicting!!
CONUS - Continental United States
Typically storms that cross 15N/50W will be far enough N to get picked up by a trough/weakness and not affect the Caribbean/CONUS. Bermuda still has to watch.

[Bluefrog]

CONUS is the Continental United States

Welcome to the board ....... you will love it here.

[KWT]

This will not be a fish,unless she goes well east of the NE Caribbean,Bermuda and Nova Scotia.

I susepct it will miss the Caribbean if the latest tracks are right, but threat is certainly there for the latter two down the line if todays models are taken for granted.

[cycloneye]

Hi everyone! I am very new here but since Irene I have been reading posts on this website religiously. I am very interested in meteorology and have become more interested recently. I saw in a few earlier posts it was mentioned that if a TC hit 15N before hitting 50W there was a HIGH likelihood of not hitting the US or islands. Is this true? I find that very interesting. Also, what is the conus?

Welcome to Storm2k. CONUS means "Continental United States". History during decades and past centuries shows a vast majority of systems passing south of 15N-50W affects the NE Caribbean islands with a handfull of systems not doing so.

[SouthFloridawx]

Here was the 00Z GFS Ensemble.

[SouthFloridawx]

[otowntiger]

This will not be a fish,unless she goes well east of the NE Caribbean,Bermuda and Nova Scotia.

I susepct it will miss the Caribbean if the latest tracks are right, but threat is certainly there for the latter two down the line if todays models are taken for granted.

I agree, at least according to the current models there appears to be little doubt about Katia missing the CONUS by a wide margin and likely to miss our friends in the Caribbean. Nothing seems to be hinting otherwise at this point.

[cycloneye]

This will not be a fish,unless she goes well east of the NE Caribbean,Bermuda and Nova Scotia.

I susepct it will miss the Caribbean if the latest tracks are right, but threat is certainly there for the latter two down the line if todays models are taken for granted.

I prefer to wait for it to pass the 20N latitude to be on the safe side. Look what occured with Irene that was supposed to pass south of PR and slam Hispanola,but she tracked over PR and just off the Hispanola north coast.

[ckiggins]

Typically storms that cross 15N/50W will be far enough N to get picked up by a trough/weakness and not affect the Caribbean/CONUS. Bermuda still has to watch.

The NHC shows the storm north of 15N when it crosses 50W on Saturday - so you're saying that it should turn based on prior history?

[Riptide]

Recurve city...

[TheBurn]

VIS/IR and MPE shots of Katia this morning

[Gustywind]

From SSD:

30/1145 UTC 12.0N 32.6W T2.5/2.5 12L
30/0545 UTC 11.8N 31.1W T2.5/2.5 12L

[brunota2003]

I can't help but think of a storm that formed near this very same area that was at 19.1N and 45.7W (on Sept 9 at 5 am) that later on went on to strike the U.S. East Coast and caused massive damage in the North Carolina/NE areas...including power outages for 2 to 3+ weeks in places.

That storm was "supposed" to follow Fabian out to sea near Bermuda, or even go further east than him, but instead she got retired.

What was the name of that system? Hmmm...Oh yeah, ISABEL! In 2003.

[Vortex]

Latest guidance. It is early to know for sure, but looking on the fishy side to me.

Very classic CV storm in the making(size/strength). Classic path as well...IMO, I think it stays well NE of the Leeward islands. Residents of Bermuda and Nova Scotia certainly want to keey an eye on it.

[LeeNess87]

Thanks BLOWNAWAY, BLUEFROG and CYCLONEYE!!

Yes, this site is extremely addicting! I am enjoying it very much.

Let's hope Katia stays clear of areas affected by Irene. She did quite a number!

[painkillerr]

[quote="cycloneye"]This morning's discussion of Katia by Rob of Crown Weather:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

"As of this morning, I am still leaning towards a track that takes Katia very close to, if not right over the northeastern Caribbean on Sunday and Monday"

Here's when we start sweating it out. Just what we need after Irene!!

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Hi everyone! I am very new here but since Irene I have been reading posts on this website religiously. I am very interested in meteorology and have become more interested recently. I saw in a few earlier posts it was mentioned that if a TC hit 15N before hitting 50W there was a HIGH likelihood of not hitting the US or islands. Is this true? I find that very interesting. Also, what is the conus?

CONUS is "Continental US" (that is the lower 48, NOT including Hawaii and Alaska, Puerto Rico, Guam, US Virgin Islands, several Caribbean properties or any of the Pacific territories (Saipan, et al).)

I'm going to preface this explanation with the thought that NOTHING is guaranteed. Meteorology is a very tricky subject, the atmosphere is incredibly complicated, and there seems to be a sort of black art to figuring out what exactly is going on all the time. Each system or feature is unique, and its interaction with the rest of the atmosphere and environment is similarily unique.

The concept is "Climatology". Essentially the idea is that if previous storms with similar environments did one thing, that future storms will do the same.

"Generally Speaking" the stronger a storm is - the more towards the poles it will move.
http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/hurricanepaths.htm

In the North Atlantic, storms originate from a number of locations, the current storm is known as a CV or "Cape Verde" storm, indicating its origin is near the Cape Verde islands. The area from the CV towards the Central Atlantic is known as the MDR or Main Development Region. Storms that form here track generally WNW around the periphery of a persistent Atlantic high pressure system that forms just about every year. When they reach the edge of that HP cell, which retreats and advances with other factors in the atmosphere, including solar output, presence of LP nearby eroding this HP, precession of seasons, and some have even theorized electromagnetic storms have an effect. Whatever the case, the HP is not static, it ebbs and flows with time.

Once a storm reaches the edge often there is a weakness between it and other cells, or a low somewhere else that has more influence - it will move more north, and get caught in the Westerlies, that dominate the atmosphere generally north of 25-30N. (noting that the area South of 25-30N typically have what are known as Easterlies in the hurricane season (mostly due to the influence of the Atlantic ridge). Again this changes with time).

Thus the sooner a storm gains latitude, the more unlikely it is to move back south (that is fairly rare) and the more likely it is to recurve out to sea. (Note the geography of the Atlantic.)

[Riptide]

Latest guidance. It is early to know for sure, but looking on the fishy side to me.

http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/1218/storm12.gif

Very classic CV storm in the making(size/strength). Classic path as well...IMO, I think it stays well NE of the Leeward islands. Residents of Bermuda and Nova Scotia certainly want to keey an eye on it.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_12.gif

No significant changes but some of the GFS ensembles bring it to the East Coast.

[Aric Dunn]

I bet this becomes a hurricane sooner than forecast. Shear is dropping fast and the curved band is not too far from wrapping all the way around already. once the shear drops some more it will likely intensify faster.