ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[NDG]

What are the local tv stations saying about this in Florida?

This morning here in central FL, one of the radio staions, the most popular one on AM, was saying to "models" were forecasting Emily to go well east of FL, lol.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thanks,

Only reason I ask was if it keps on the track west, when the turn does come it may very well end up in the upper keys.

[psyclone]

this system has consistently looked like garbage from go. it's basically a blob of heavy rain which is a threat in orographic enhancement zones. other than that, it's never been much to look at.

An "old hand" who takes a single glance at the following pic of a WNW-tracking storm in the "high season" immediately thinks Cat-4 in the Gulf of Mexico.

Remember Gustav and Charlie. Gustav looked worse than this.

This requires you to draw statistical analogies to conditions that existed with those events. Can you do that?

part of the reason that gustav is so easy to recall is that it was so aberrant. for every gustav that achieves greatness from nothing there are many more that don't. they're just not memorable...but they're far more numerous. could emily turn into something significant? sure. but it has shown no inclination thus far so i'm putting the burden of proof on her. gatorcane's visible pic does show a pretty good circulation so it is definitely still alive.

[underthwx]

which camp are you leaning towards Gatorcane?

[NDG]

The current track trajectory keeps Emily over the least amount of land: Haiti Tiburon Peninsula - Golf of Gonave - E tip of Cuba. If Emily's LLC survives the next 36 hours, Emily could take a nice ride over very warm SST's and improving upper level conditions. Once N of Cuba Emily will have almost 2 days before reaching the closest point to Florida, about 70 miles E of WPB. Much can happen in 2 days over warm water and low shear! IMO, NHC is conservative with intensity expecting more land interaction, but IMO Emily is moving under Hispaniola not over the heart of the island.

Blown Away,

Are you saying WPB because of the direction it will be moving, because you do have the Keys and S.FLA before WPB. Just wondering

Based on the 11am track the closest point Emily will get to Florida will be E of WPB @70 miles and assuming the track stays the same it will take almost 2 days from N Cuba to E of WPB. Pointing out that 48 hours over very warm SST's and low shear can be plenty of time for a system to significantly strengthen, many examples. That's it.

I agree, the gulf stream can do wonders to tropical cyclones, and if the euro is correct on showing better UL conditions I would not be surprised she is a hurricane as she hugs the FL coast moving northward.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[jonj2040]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031810
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 11 20110803
180030 1718N 06948W 8434 01556 0105 +147 +075 119025 025 042 009 00
180100 1716N 06950W 8435 01552 0100 +149 +075 114027 031 041 007 00
180130 1715N 06951W 8438 01548 0100 +148 +075 117031 033 041 005 00
180200 1714N 06952W 8434 01552 0096 +153 +075 121026 027 042 003 00
180230 1713N 06953W 8437 01548 0084 +169 +076 130024 025 041 002 00
180300 1712N 06954W 8435 01549 0088 +162 +078 138025 027 042 000 00
180330 1710N 06956W 8438 01544 0077 +179 +079 135019 019 042 000 00
180400 1709N 06957W 8435 01546 0074 +182 +081 134020 021 043 000 03
180430 1708N 06958W 8433 01547 0070 +186 +083 135019 019 043 000 03
180500 1707N 06959W 8433 01546 0068 +189 +086 131019 019 042 000 03
180530 1706N 07000W 8432 01548 0067 +186 +087 124019 021 041 001 03
180600 1704N 07002W 8437 01537 0067 +183 +088 122020 020 040 000 03
180630 1703N 07003W 8438 01537 0076 +167 +088 133027 029 041 006 00
180700 1702N 07004W 8434 01539 0065 +180 +086 140023 025 040 004 03
180730 1701N 07005W 8437 01535 0060 +188 +084 134020 020 036 000 00
180800 1700N 07007W 8437 01535 0061 +188 +085 132019 020 033 000 03
180830 1659N 07008W 8436 01537 0059 +190 +088 138019 019 033 000 00
180900 1658N 07009W 8434 01536 0057 +186 +090 136018 019 033 000 00
180930 1656N 07010W 8434 01534 0053 +195 +092 137016 017 033 000 00
181000 1655N 07011W 8436 01534 0049 +201 +094 127014 015 032 000 00
$$
;

[jonj2040]

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[wxman57]

Wind shear may be decreasing now. I think it'll clip western Haiti then go across more of eastern Cuba. May track a little west of Andros. Don't see anything to suggest eastern Gulf.

[northjaxpro]

What are the local tv stations saying about this in Florida?

I live here in Jacksonville, and we have continued to remain in the "cone of uncertainty" regarding any future path of Emily. Basically the local TV mets here in this area have kept the standard line " watch closely, be aware of any changes "to the forecast of Emily.

They have been leading the newscast since yesterday with making people aware of Emily's possible long-range impacts, but smartly not sounding any alarms up to now.

Now, as for what may happen in a couple of days, of course, the jury is still out.

[Blown Away]

:D Thanks,

Only reason I ask was if it keps on the track west, when the turn does come it may very well end up in the upper keys.

Emily already on the SW side of the 11am cone.

[NDG]

Pressure is at least 1005mb, if not lower since the recon has not reached her center yet.

[lebron23]

Here in Houston they said well east of florida also, and that it looks weak this early afternoon.

[gatorcane]

Wind shear may be decreasing now. I think it'll clip western Haiti then go across more of eastern Cuba. May track a little west of Andros. Don't see anything to suggest eastern Gulf.

I agree, though didn't explicitly state that. I also see the wind shear is decreasing...but dry air appears to be the main issue...

[Hurricaneman]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If this goes west and misses the trough somehow, where would this end up as II see it now I think the gulf needs to watch this too as Im leaning towards a Charley track if it misses the trough

[NDG]

Wind shear may be decreasing now. I think it'll clip western Haiti then go across more of eastern Cuba. May track a little west of Andros. Don't see anything to suggest eastern Gulf.

I agree regarding the eastern Gulf, unless the ridging building from the Atlantic after the current trough lifts out builds in stronger, but models don't show that right now.

[xironman]

Pressure is at least 1005mb, if not lower since the recon has not reached her center yet.

Yeah, that burst of convection came at an opportune time. Don't know if I believe SFMR, but at this point I would not expect a downgrade.

[Wthrman13]

Wthrman13 - thanks for the explanation. I really wish they had a way to simply plug in that start point manually and let it run from there. Hmmm....too bad there wasn't an online "tool" like that that would let someone simply plug in the start point, current strength, direction, and forward speed. Then run on the background of established synoptics.
now that would be useful!

You're welcome. What you are describing is essentially how the BAM suite of models works. They use the larger scale synoptic winds from the GFS and have some simplified mechanics for how an idealized vortex would propagate within that flow. Keep in mind though, that TC's are large systems that interact in complex ways with their surroundings; indeed there is no real boundary between a TC and its environment -- its all part of the atmospheric system. Simple models like the BAM, therefore, while often working quite well, will at least as often miss these important interactions which a fully dynamical model can at least *in principle* handle properly. Nevertheless, we still have a long way to go before we fully understand a TC's interaction with its environment, let alone predict such things with a model. Even the dynamical models are so complex in their behavior that we don't understand all the physical processes going on within them, let alone their counterparts in the real atmosphere!

You can see why this gives many a meteorologist (researcher or forecaster) a headache!

But I'm going off topic. As for Emily, I'm not surprised to see a westward shift in the models. The system is pretty weak right now and the low-level circulation keeps racing out ahead of the mid-level one. If it can survive interaction with the islands, and were to reorganize and become vertically stacked, then the GFS solution becomes a lot more credible. A lot depends on the next 48 hours.

[Kory]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If this goes west and misses the trough somehow, where would this end up

Considering there is a huge high over the southeast US my guess would a recurve over southern Florida or just a W to WNW track to continue.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[northjaxpro]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If this goes west and misses the trough somehow, where would this end up

If this happens, the system would be even closer to impacting Florida than earlier projected.

[maxx9512]

It appears that the llc is now under the little ball of convection. Am I correct in what I see here?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater