ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[jonj2040]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031920
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 18 20110803
191030 1549N 07049W 8437 01547 0075 +185 +074 285010 010 016 000 00
191100 1549N 07051W 8436 01548 0076 +181 +074 293009 009 016 000 00
191130 1549N 07053W 8436 01547 0076 +184 +074 297008 008 017 000 00
191200 1549N 07054W 8436 01548 0076 +183 +074 298006 006 018 001 00
191230 1549N 07056W 8434 01549 0075 +185 +074 305007 007 017 000 00
191300 1549N 07058W 8440 01543 0074 +185 +074 296007 007 019 000 00
191330 1549N 07059W 8434 01548 0074 +185 +075 303007 007 016 000 00
191400 1549N 07101W 8436 01548 0076 +183 +075 310008 009 017 000 00
191430 1549N 07103W 8429 01555 0078 +183 +074 317008 008 017 000 00
191500 1549N 07104W 8428 01558 0078 +184 +074 311008 008 019 000 00
191530 1549N 07106W 8434 01553 0079 +183 +074 317006 007 017 000 00
191600 1549N 07108W 8429 01557 0078 +183 +074 325006 006 016 000 00
191630 1549N 07109W 8430 01556 0081 +180 +074 331007 007 016 000 00
191700 1549N 07111W 8428 01559 0082 +180 +073 342006 006 018 000 00
191730 1549N 07113W 8432 01554 0083 +180 +073 345006 007 017 000 03
191800 1549N 07114W 8428 01561 0083 +180 +073 339007 007 017 000 00
191830 1549N 07116W 8431 01557 0081 +181 +072 339009 009 017 000 00
191900 1549N 07118W 8430 01557 0081 +185 +072 343009 009 017 000 00
191930 1549N 07119W 8429 01560 0081 +185 +072 342009 009 017 000 00
192000 1549N 07121W 8430 01558 0081 +185 +072 350009 009 018 000 00
$$
;

[Blown Away]

The NHC won't hug the TVCN so much when it gets obvious that the GFS and it's prodigy are neglecting reality at the moment.
I would guess that their next cone will include the state of FL and remain pretty wide.

You would think, but they love that TVCN regardless of the other models.

Does anybody know if the GFS runs influence the TVCN?

[jonj2040]

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[Gustywind]

Steady weakening trend seems to continue for TS Emily given SSD T NUMBERS...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
03/1745 UTC 16.8N 70.3W T2.0/3.0 EMILY
03/1145 UTC 16.7N 69.0W T2.5/3.0 EMILY
03/0545 UTC 16.7N 67.4W T3.0/3.0 EMILY

[linkerweather]

Remember cone won't be "pretty wide" as the cone itself is not a forecast. It is simply a graphical representation of historical error. The better product that the NHC puts out is the wind speed probability graphics, IMO.

[Ground_Zero_92]

Steady weakening trend seems to continue for TS Emily given SSD T NUMBERS...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
03/1745 UTC 16.8N 70.3W T2.0/3.0 EMILY
03/1145 UTC 16.7N 69.0W T2.5/3.0 EMILY
03/0545 UTC 16.7N 67.4W T3.0/3.0 EMILY

So why is the pressure dropping? This is one strange system.

[Stormcenter]

I believe the NHC will stick with the main models on their next advisory and show the same general track they've been predicting except make the necessary westward adjustments based on the current track. JMHO

[Bocadude85]

surprised a bit to see the models not shifting yet.. but they are very stubborn sometimes.. I remember jeanne they waited and waited till she already started turning before they switch... by 00z she will be at a point that would require nearly a straight north turn... I think by that time the models will finally pick up its westward movement.

How far west are you thinking this is going to go Aric?

[Weatherboy1]

Could we end up with another "Crazy Ivan" type system here, I wonder? I remember back in 2004 where the darn thing was supposed to turn, turn, turn. But all he did was head WNW, WNW, WNW until he was into the Gulf. Saved those of us in SE FL a storm hit, but didn't do the folks in the Gulf any favors!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/IV ... hics.shtml

[SouthFLTropics]

Steady weakening trend seems to continue for TS Emily given SSD T NUMBERS...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
03/1745 UTC 16.8N 70.3W T2.0/3.0 EMILY
03/1145 UTC 16.7N 69.0W T2.5/3.0 EMILY
03/0545 UTC 16.7N 67.4W T3.0/3.0 EMILY

So why is the pressure dropping? This is one strange system.

I would have to say that Dvorak estimates are just that...they are "estimates". Nothing beats live recon when it comes to getting the true story, IMO.

SFT

[jonj2040]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031930
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 19 20110803
192030 1549N 07123W 8432 01556 0081 +183 +072 352009 010 017 000 00
192100 1549N 07125W 8432 01557 0082 +180 +072 348010 010 016 000 00
192130 1549N 07126W 8429 01560 0082 +180 +072 355010 010 016 000 00
192200 1549N 07128W 8433 01556 0082 +180 +072 357011 011 017 000 00
192230 1549N 07130W 8430 01558 0085 +180 +072 000011 011 016 000 00
192300 1549N 07131W 8430 01559 0086 +180 +071 002011 011 017 000 00
192330 1549N 07133W 8429 01560 0086 +180 +071 007012 012 016 000 00
192400 1549N 07135W 8430 01559 0084 +180 +071 006011 012 017 000 00
192430 1549N 07137W 8430 01561 0087 +180 +071 007010 011 018 000 00
192500 1550N 07138W 8433 01561 0088 +180 +071 022010 011 /// /// 03
192530 1551N 07138W 8429 01563 0088 +179 +071 023008 009 012 001 03
192600 1552N 07137W 8429 01559 0086 +178 +071 010009 009 014 000 00
192630 1553N 07136W 8430 01560 0085 +180 +071 002008 008 016 000 00
192700 1555N 07135W 8432 01558 0082 +184 +071 004008 009 014 001 00
192730 1556N 07134W 8429 01557 0081 +183 +071 351010 011 017 000 00
192800 1557N 07132W 8432 01556 0081 +182 +071 344010 011 018 000 00
192830 1558N 07131W 8432 01557 0079 +185 +071 338009 009 017 000 00
192900 1559N 07130W 8432 01556 0076 +188 +071 345008 010 018 000 03
192930 1600N 07129W 8429 01558 0077 +186 +071 347009 010 019 000 00
193000 1601N 07128W 8430 01556 0076 +190 +071 349009 010 019 000 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

surprised a bit to see the models not shifting yet.. but they are very stubborn sometimes.. I remember jeanne they waited and waited till she already started turning before they switch... by 00z she will be at a point that would require nearly a straight north turn... I think by that time the models will finally pick up its westward movement.

How far west are you thinking this is going to go Aric?

I would say after 72 w then start wnw

[Evil Jeremy]

I believe the NHC will stick with the main models on their next advisory and show the same general track they've been predicting except make the necessary westward adjustments based on the current track. JMHO

I would think this too, but the models have been wrong time and time again. Is the NHC going to stick with the models in hopes that Emily finally starts turning?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Hi Josh! Interesting little system we have here, eh?
Does the G-VI data get into tonight's model runs? That will be some interesting tracks. Hopefully I can stay up long enough to see them roll in.

[jonj2040]

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[Shuriken]

Again, GFS short term way off. Does the GFS runs influence the TVCN?

Don't you just love the way interim forecasts develop increasingly bizarre right-angle turns attempting to shank an independent-minded system back toward an obviously blown prior track?

I think it's safe to say at this point that Emily will track left of the leftmost model in that ensemble.

[SunnyThoughts]

Hi Josh! Interesting little system we have here, eh?
Does the G-VI data get into tonight's model runs? That will be some interesting tracks. Hopefully I can stay up long enough to see them roll in.

I did read where the information from the G-VI soundings would indeed be in tonight's 0z runs. I think they are dropping sonds all along the northern bahamas at this time.

[Aric Dunn]

I just wanted to mention this.... I noticed it the past few days.. The red circle is a very strange wind shift line/ boundary that has basically been semi permanent entity for this system and seems like the reason for the sw quad having limited inflow over the last few days.. there should a much more gradual shift to winds as you go around a tropical system. the weird thing is it does not rotate with the system it just sits there as a boundary. dont think I have ever really seen it before.

[cpdaman]

do these "model" runs have ensemble members

it seems like alot would be gained if each model had an ensemble based on a slightly different forward progression of the atmosphere or basically based on where a 45mph trop. storm would go v. something more vertically stacked and stronger/deeper and thus influenced by higher steering aloft.

it seems when the models constantly only run based off a deeper system they are fatally flawed w track

edit at least here http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRS_12z/ensloop.html is the 12 members ensemble spread of the GFS.....seems a bit of a spread on location and intensity from what one can gain by looking at different panels for say the fri pm to sat pm time frame.

the ensembels give you a great deal more info that just the OP run

[linkerweather]

Hi Josh! Interesting little system we have here, eh?
Does the G-VI data get into tonight's model runs? That will be some interesting tracks. Hopefully I can stay up long enough to see them roll in.

That would be the intent. Enough time with the mission out already. Intereting to say the least. Hispanola is having an impact to some degree indisallowing a clean inflow from the north side. I dont see enough west or SW shear to have the convective mass this far displaced from the LLC, yet it is rather exposed.