ATL: EMILY - Remnants

#621 Postby **SFLcane** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:53 pm

Thankfully the navy nogaps is a horrible model.

#622 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:53 pm

HurricaneWarning92 wrote:This is definitely not a recurve guys. We call them recurves when they dont affect any land areas but it looks like it will affect the islands, so it wouldnt be a recurve for them--for all we know, it could be a nightmare for them.

You're thinking of a "fish"

#623 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:54 pm

why? unless is improves later...right now you have 2 areas competing for the same moisture envelope. Until that changes no upgrade. I think both of these guys formed due to very large area of low pressure that came with this wave....I think it was around 1008MB coming across the pond....

When the pouch came out of Africa,it already had a low.

#624 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:54 pm

HurricaneWarning92 wrote:This is definitely not a recurve guys. We call them recurves when they dont affect any land areas but it looks like it will affect the islands, so it wouldnt be a recurve for them--for all we know, it could be a nightmare for them.

I agree, I am not buying the recurve. I am 95% sure this will impact land, starting with the islands. I'm still thinking this goes south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola towards Jamaica.

ROCK · #625 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:54 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
ROCK wrote:12Z NOGAPS smashes Hisp and then obliterates Miami...ouch

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

models are trending south today....

Hey Rock, when I try to pull up that link I get page that says, "There is a problem with this website's security certificate"
and it won't let me go further. Anyone else get this?

EDIT: oops, nevermind, I got it to work, just clicked on the link even though my browser told me it's "not recommended"....That's IE for ya I guess.
Anyway, Ouch is right!! Miami??? Are you kidding me?

Miami gets whats ledt after Hispa....not sure how much would be left but the core would be toast if it went over the mountains. Still though the water are mighty toasty and could crank it back up if this was to verify.....its the NOGAPS.... :lol:

ConvergenceZone · #626 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:55 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:NOGAPS = worst model of all. It always seems to run doomsday scenarios.

Yea, I was thinking the same thing, but I think the important thing to focus on here is the trend, not the specific NOGAPS model output....
The fact that any model is showing as far west as Miami is significant and might mean more might continue to trend further south/west.

ROCK · #627 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:55 pm

SFLcane wrote:Thankfully the navy nogaps is a horrible model.

true....I post it because Ivan posts the NAM..... :lol:

I figured if he can post an ultra horrible model I would join him.....

#628 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:57 pm

msbee wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
plasticup wrote:This is going to be a great one to track. Does it beat the ridge and recurve into Bermuda, or does the ridge push back and slide it into the Carolinas? Or is the ridge extra strong, pushing it over Florida and into the Gulf? Regardless, this one has the potential to be a loooooong tracker with some really interesting steering.

I'm pumped.

Well, I am not pumped about the prospects of our fellow neighbors down in the NE Caribbean islands potentially staring down at this storm in a few days. This could get to be a potentially dangerous situation for them. I'm hope and pray for the best situation possible, but also hope those folks are preparing for the worst as this system likely heads their way within the next 72 hours.

But, I do agree with you that this tropical cyclone will be quite a fascinating one to monitor all next week. There are so many variables to factor in with this system, including the ones you mentioned plasticup. Everyone definitely needs to pay attention for sure all week long with the progress of future Emily.

Thanks northjaxpro for the concern. we're not pumped down here...we're nervous

msbee, I'm sure everyone on here echos my thoughts and prayers to you and everyone down there in the islands right now. We will know much more as this storm likely approaches your region in the next few days. Take care and be safe!

HurricaneWarning92 · #629 Postby **HurricaneWarning92** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:57 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
HurricaneWarning92 wrote:This is definitely not a recurve guys. We call them recurves when they dont affect any land areas but it looks like it will affect the islands, so it wouldnt be a recurve for them--for all we know, it could be a nightmare for them.

You're thinking of a "fish"

arent they basically the same? The both go to the open waters.

#630 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:58 pm

HurricaneWarning92 wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:
HurricaneWarning92 wrote:This is definitely not a recurve guys. We call them recurves when they dont affect any land areas but it looks like it will affect the islands, so it wouldnt be a recurve for them--for all we know, it could be a nightmare for them.

You're thinking of a "fish"

arent they basically the same? The both go to the open waters.

A storm hitting the islands is not a fish storm though.

#631 Postby **HurricaneBrain** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:00 pm

Hmmm... Odds are increasing that we get out 5th named storm in the first 2 months.

#632 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:01 pm

HurricaneBrain wrote:Hmmm... Odds are increasing that we get out 5th named storm in the first 2 months.

And our first hurricane most likely. Maybe even our first major hurricane.

#633 Postby **Buck** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:01 pm

Wow, very large envelope this one has. I've been waiting for this first West African storm this season.

Battlebrick · #634 Postby **Battlebrick** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:02 pm

Earl formed on August 25th, 2010. We might get Emily 25 days earlier.

#635 Postby **OuterBanker** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:02 pm

I am glad that they are sending recon out this far. I was afraid that budget cuts would have prevented them from being run this far east. With PR under the gun and it generally considered our 51st state I can understand the expense. Let's hope that the current budget crises doesn't interrupt or restrict recon missions.

#636 Postby **SFLcane** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:03 pm

12z GFDL is futher south on this run with slow development...

#637 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:03 pm

Emily has a bad history...can another chapter be written? Will Emily be the first name ever to reach Category 5 TWICE?

StormClouds63 · #638 Postby **StormClouds63** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:03 pm

2005 Emily was a tiny, cat4 buzz-saw ... this version of Emily looks to be a very large system. Even if it doesn't hit the islands directly, some indirect effects are likely to be felt.

Hylian Auree · #639 Postby **Hylian Auree** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:03 pm

We should cut this recurvature crap. It's way too far out to say; plus, recurvature or not, this thing is most likely going to have an impact on the Lesser Antilles.

#640 Postby **Fego** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:04 pm

HurricaneWarning92 wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:
HurricaneWarning92 wrote:This is definitely not a recurve guys. We call them recurves when they dont affect any land areas but it looks like it will affect the islands, so it wouldnt be a recurve for them--for all we know, it could be a nightmare for them.

You're thinking of a "fish"

arent they basically the same? The both go to the open waters.

Deja vu all over again. Lets say that right now is a fish, until crossover one of the islands.

ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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