ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[Comanche]

Still lifting north..it's gonna hit the northern gulf this run, just depends where...Houston?

I'll take a cane over the alternative. Unless we can recharge our resevoirs and water table soon, we face a much larger disaster than what a cane would do at this point.

[meriland23]

Now there's something you can't achieve on a reg. basis..

[lonelymike]

We need clarification from King Euro to show the way for his confused servant GFS

[chrisnnavarre]

wouldnt maria keep it from going to far east? like la being the furthest east it could go? wht did JB say yesterday?

Probably pull the Fujiwhara effect move east and rake the entire Gulf Coast from Western Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle, then down through the middle of the Florida peninsula as Maria crosses to the south. Maria would then get pulled north hitting the central Gulf Coast around New Orleans for a second dose of tropical medicine. That'd be great, just great because then FEMA would have to submit chapter 11 bankruptcy paperwork in Federal Court.

[Stormcenter]

Nate may never get out of the BOC. IMO

[Ivanhater]

150 hours..big hurricane still sitting in the NW gulf

[Dave]

336
URNT15 KNHC 081625
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 09 20110908
161530 2447N 08952W 3923 07723 0402 -175 -435 331008 008 040 010 00
161600 2444N 08951W 3924 07724 0404 -175 -432 319008 008 031 001 00
161630 2441N 08951W 3924 07727 0406 -175 -427 326007 008 014 002 00
161700 2439N 08951W 3925 07709 0391 -175 -422 318006 007 014 001 00
161730 2436N 08951W 3923 07698 0378 -176 -416 337008 008 019 000 00
161800 2433N 08951W 3926 07687 0371 -177 -397 317005 007 019 002 00
161830 2431N 08951W 3921 07716 0384 -181 -278 308007 009 020 000 03
161900 2428N 08952W 3925 07707 0390 -182 -338 343012 014 002 004 03
161930 2427N 08954W 3924 07706 0386 -187 -308 347013 015 020 000 03
162000 2425N 08956W 3933 07693 0388 -189 -253 341009 011 011 001 00
162030 2424N 08958W 3923 07707 0386 -193 -234 331015 017 017 001 00
162100 2422N 09000W 3925 07707 0389 -193 -251 342022 024 020 005 00
162130 2421N 09003W 3925 07707 0391 -191 -252 345020 022 025 008 00
162200 2419N 09005W 3922 07716 0396 -170 -183 289015 017 026 006 00
162230 2418N 09007W 3922 07723 0404 -169 -170 293013 015 027 005 00
162300 2416N 09009W 3927 07720 0408 -167 //// 295009 011 029 004 01
162330 2415N 09011W 3924 07728 0406 -166 //// 224002 005 028 006 01
162400 2413N 09013W 3925 07701 0381 -168 //// 176007 010 028 007 01
162430 2412N 09015W 3922 07708 0378 -161 //// 229013 014 023 005 01
162500 2410N 09017W 3921 07695 0370 -170 -201 257013 016 021 002 00
$$
;

[lonelymike]

If ( a big if) it hits the NGOM probably a target area from Lake Charles to Mobile. Maybe as far east as P'Cola....IF

[Jevo]

12z GFS +162

[micktooth]

Does this run have any recon info in it?

[lonelymike]

Problems handling the trough.

[Dave]

[3090]

wouldnt maria keep it from going to far east? like la being the furthest east it could go? wht did JB say yesterday?

Probably pull the Fujiwhara effect move east and rake the entire Gulf Coast from Western Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle, then down through the middle of the Florida peninsula as Maria crosses to the south. Maria would then get pulled north hitting the central Gulf Coast around New Orleans for a second dose of tropical medicine. That'd be great, just great because then FEMA would have to submit chapter 11 bankruptcy paperwork in Federal Court.

Uuuuuum, let me inform you. They are already having problems funding what they intended to fund after Katrina. Any other catastrophic Hurricane events, or earthquakes...etc, lots of folks are going to get screwed for a long time before they can get what they paid for. If they would have built reinforced levees like they were designed, but decided to shorten the lengths of pilings driven and depth of reinforcing walls, New Orleans would NOT be in the situation we are now. The government failed in their construction of levees. Bottom line.

Sorry for the rant, but felt a need to only briefly summarize the problem.

Hope everyone stays safe.

[tobol.7uno]

Looks like the models will trend east as expected...

[Ivanhater]

192 hours...approaching Houston

[Jevo]

12Z GFS +204 (GFS landfall solution)



12z GFS +218 (inland)

[Dave]

491
URNT15 KNHC 081635
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 10 20110908
162530 2409N 09019W 3920 07689 0361 -176 -244 270011 012 022 002 00
162600 2407N 09021W 3921 07685 0357 -166 -208 227014 017 020 001 00
162630 2406N 09023W 3919 07688 0359 -171 -193 219010 011 020 000 00
162700 2404N 09025W 3929 07656 0347 -157 -207 190012 014 014 000 00
162730 2403N 09027W 3923 07683 0363 -156 -217 173009 011 012 000 00
162800 2401N 09029W 3921 07717 0391 -158 -214 157009 010 014 000 00
162830 2400N 09032W 3927 07713 0400 -160 -215 155008 009 014 000 00
162900 2358N 09034W 3925 07719 0402 -165 -201 158006 007 014 000 00
162930 2357N 09036W 3923 07722 0402 -165 -210 164004 004 014 001 00
163000 2355N 09038W 3925 07719 0402 -170 -185 144006 006 018 001 00
163030 2354N 09040W 3925 07723 0404 -167 -209 148004 004 018 000 00
163100 2352N 09042W 3925 07723 0404 -162 -246 167002 003 015 000 00
163130 2351N 09044W 3924 07725 0405 -165 -271 122002 002 015 000 00
163200 2349N 09046W 3925 07721 0404 -165 -303 094002 002 013 000 00
163230 2348N 09048W 3925 07723 0404 -160 -322 200000 001 014 000 00
163300 2346N 09051W 3925 07725 0406 -160 -309 222002 003 016 000 00
163330 2344N 09053W 3926 07719 0406 -160 -271 223003 004 015 000 00
163400 2343N 09055W 3923 07721 0402 -161 -276 216004 005 014 001 00
163430 2341N 09057W 3925 07721 0404 -164 -270 212004 005 015 001 00
163500 2340N 09059W 3924 07721 0403 -164 -275 207003 003 017 000 00
$$
;

[Ivanhater]

Turns NE and hits SW Louisiana. Models continue to move away from the Mexico solution.

[tolakram]

Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

latest visible:

[Dave]