ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Nikki]

Ok I am not a board mod, but this bickering needs to stop. There is a potential catastrophic hurricane headed to various places and snow has nothing to do with hurricanes. Please get back on topic so those who are trying to find out useful and needed information can find it. Thanks!!

[BigB0882]

Thanks for the answers about the possible effects on NYC. I think the surge is the main worry but I don't know if this storm is coming in from the right angle to cause the worst problems.

Rock, I don't put much stock in the "It could happen tomorrow" shows. They are all doomsday, absolute worst case scenarios and even then they are mostly theory and very little proven fact. They don't know if that will happen until it happens.

I have absolutely NO pity if NYC is without power for a while. Sorry, we deal with it all the time along the coast when a hurricane hits and we go days and days. The downside is there are so many people in such a small area but guess what, that also means when the power is back on in a small area it goes to a lot of people. They have a much smaller area (Just talking NYC!!) to get power back on.

[hurricaneCW]

I just saw the gfs and I am horrified, absolute disaster, the only good thing is that we are still over 3 days away and a lot can change.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250507
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 49 20110825
045800 2425N 07527W 6963 02921 //// +089 //// 140091 096 075 015 01
045830 2424N 07528W 6969 02906 //// +097 //// 140078 082 075 008 05
045900 2423N 07529W 6968 02898 //// +110 //// 135077 079 158 002 05
045930 2421N 07530W 6969 02884 9720 +109 //// 133072 074 /// /// 05
050000 2420N 07531W 6964 02889 9712 +123 //// 136073 073 063 006 05
050030 2419N 07532W 6970 02874 9704 +122 //// 135075 076 063 004 05
050100 2418N 07533W 6969 02866 9700 +117 //// 134076 076 062 008 01
050130 2417N 07534W 6962 02865 9684 +116 //// 136076 077 062 004 05
050200 2416N 07535W 6967 02845 9673 +120 //// 135076 077 060 006 05
050230 2415N 07537W 6964 02833 9662 +113 //// 133079 082 062 015 05
050300 2413N 07538W 6968 02811 //// +099 //// 129085 086 067 029 05
050330 2412N 07539W 6972 02792 //// +090 //// 129082 087 070 032 05
050400 2411N 07540W 6944 02802 //// +106 //// 139079 084 075 035 01
050430 2410N 07541W 7000 02711 //// +104 //// 134067 070 078 029 05
050500 2409N 07542W 6951 02753 //// +125 //// 135053 069 /// /// 05
050530 2408N 07543W 6961 02728 9510 +145 //// 146037 041 040 001 05
050600 2407N 07545W 6965 02715 9509 +137 //// 150027 030 029 001 05
050630 2406N 07546W 6967 02709 9495 +145 //// 150022 023 027 001 05
050700 2405N 07548W 6967 02703 9489 +148 +148 136014 018 023 001 03
050730 2403N 07549W 6971 02700 9481 +157 +148 059003 008 018 001 03
$$

[Dave]

[SunnyThoughts]

I just saw the gfs and I am horrified, absolute disaster, the only good thing is that we are still over 3 days away and a lot can change.

Good luck to you, stay safe and be prepared just in case this all comes to fruition.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250517
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 50 20110825
050800 2402N 07550W 6963 02712 9473 +166 +145 334013 014 018 001 03
050830 2400N 07551W 6973 02707 9479 +167 +150 314023 027 027 002 00
050900 2359N 07552W 6969 02727 9499 +165 +157 302036 042 /// /// 03
050930 2357N 07551W 6965 02743 9504 +170 +151 284047 052 045 001 03
051000 2356N 07549W 6960 02762 9519 +170 +135 272058 062 052 002 03
051030 2354N 07548W 6968 02771 9559 +152 +118 263064 067 055 003 03
051100 2353N 07546W 6963 02792 9586 +146 +109 252063 063 056 004 00
051130 2352N 07545W 6965 02808 9611 +137 +125 243065 067 059 003 03
051200 2350N 07543W 6969 02819 9629 +132 //// 239066 067 057 003 01
051230 2349N 07542W 6970 02831 9647 +132 +125 235067 068 056 002 03
051300 2348N 07540W 6967 02848 9673 +122 +121 229069 070 056 001 03
051330 2347N 07539W 6969 02855 9682 +123 +120 231068 069 056 001 03
051400 2346N 07538W 6972 02862 9686 +129 +121 229067 068 060 002 03
051430 2345N 07536W 6961 02882 9702 +122 //// 226068 071 064 002 05
051500 2343N 07535W 6967 02884 9706 +128 +122 221073 073 067 004 03
051530 2342N 07534W 6966 02895 9718 +125 +119 226076 079 069 004 00
051600 2341N 07532W 6963 02907 9743 +112 //// 227087 089 068 004 01
051630 2340N 07531W 6969 02908 9760 +107 //// 223093 093 067 005 05
051700 2339N 07530W 6967 02922 9777 +103 //// 221092 093 066 006 01
051730 2338N 07529W 6970 02928 9788 +102 //// 221091 092 065 002 05
$$
;

[WxGuy1]

It's worth noting that Irene will accelerate rapidly northward after passing Virginia and North Carolina. This will increase the asymmetry of the wind field. In other words, the "left" side of Irene, which is the west side in this case, will see considerably weaker winds; the "right" side of the storm will see considerably stronger winds. I think it's entirely possible that the wind speed could be 40 mph weaker on the west side of Irene than the wind speed on the right side. So, if peak winds in Irene are still 100 mph by the time it gets north towards Long Island, the winds on the west side of Irene may only be ~60 mph if Irene is moving northward at 20 mph at that time.

Of course, we also need to add in frictional effects that will be significant if the hurricane parallels the coast just off land. In that case, the strongest winds will likely occur as the center is immediately east of the shore, which means that the winds will be northerly on land. As such, any areas that are more than a few miles from the water will be dealing with winds that are and have been moving over land for some time. Frictional effects over land, as we know, can greatly decrease wind speeds as well.

We can't forget that many of these same coastal areas do see 60-80 mph Nor'Easters occasionally as well, so it's not like the coasts never see strong winda and consist of buildings that will collapse in 60 mph winds. The thing that makes this event so potentially costly and dangerous is that such a massively-populated swatch of land will be affected.

Do not get me wrong: this isn't to say that this won't be disastrous! However, I don't think we'll have to deal with anything like collapsing high-rises or extreme wind damage in areas from New Jersey northward. The high-resolution models support a very deep Irene (<935 mb past New Jersey), but with winds that are much weaker than we usually see with such a low surface pressure. As such, I don't think wind damage is going to be the greatest threat to structures, aside from fallen trees! I think the coastal flooding and surge potential is pretty significant, though. This is especially true if the eye really does criss-cross the coast as it rides northward, since it could pile up a lot of water to all the inlets in the area.

EDIT: For the SC and NC coast, though, I think wind damage may be substantial, depending upon how close the eye gets to the shoreline.

[Dave]

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Just pulling up and IR shot and man it's incredible to have such a large cane right of the SFL coastline how lucky we are to have dodged yet another bullet. My prayers go out to everyone in this path of this storm.

I wish there was a link to this pic. i would like to share it with some of my friends

[artist]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 250519
XXAA 75057 99240 70758 08045 99950 27200 27008 00957 ///// /////
92238 25600 28009 85983 22200 28509 70666 17025 33513 88999 77999
31313 09608 80508
61616 AF302 1709A IRENE OB 22
62626 EYE SPL 2403N07583W 0512 MBL WND 27509 AEV 20802 DLM WND 30
509 950696 WL150 27510 084 REL 2403N07584W 050759 SPG 2403N07583W
051140 =
XXBB 75058 99240 70758 08045 00950 27200 11850 22200 22756 20241
33718 18049 44696 16421
21212 00950 27008 11850 28509 22751 32510 33696 33014
31313 09608 80508
61616 AF302 1709A IRENE OB 22
62626 EYE SPL 2403N07583W 0512 MBL WND 27509 AEV 20802 DLM WND 30
509 950696 WL150 27510 084 REL 2403N07584W 050759 SPG 2403N07583W
051140 =

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 05:19Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 22

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 5Z on the 25th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 24.0N 75.8W
Location: 122 miles (196 km) to the SE (127°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
Marsden Square: 080 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
950mb (28.05 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.2°C (81.0°F) 27.2°C (81.0°F) 270° (from the W) 8 knots (9 mph)
1000mb -457m (-1499 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 238m (781 ft) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 280° (from the W) 9 knots (10 mph)
850mb 983m (3,225 ft) 22.2°C (72.0°F) 22.2°C (72.0°F) 285° (from the WNW) 9 knots (10 mph)
700mb 2,666m (8,747 ft) 17.0°C (62.6°F) 14.5°C (58.1°F) 335° (from the NNW) 13 knots (15 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 5:08Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 24.03N 75.83W
Splash Time: 5:12Z

Release Location: 24.03N 75.84W View map)
Release Time: 5:07:59Z

Splash Location: 24.03N 75.83W (
Splash Time: 5:11:40Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 275° (from the W)
- Wind Speed: 9 knots (10 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 305° (from the NW)
- Wind Speed: 9 knots (10 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 696mb to 950mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 275° (from the W)
- Wind Speed: 10 knots (12 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
950mb (Surface) 27.2°C (81.0°F) 27.2°C (81.0°F)
850mb 22.2°C (72.0°F) 22.2°C (72.0°F)
756mb 20.2°C (68.4°F) 16.1°C (61.0°F)
718mb 18.0°C (64.4°F) 13.1°C (55.6°F)
696mb 16.4°C (61.5°F) 14.3°C (57.7°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
950mb (Surface) 270° (from the W) 8 knots (9 mph)
850mb 285° (from the WNW) 9 knots (10 mph)
751mb 325° (from the NW) 10 knots (12 mph)
696mb 330° (from the NNW) 14 knots (16 mph)

[drezee]

last wobble watch of the night:

Distance between

N Latitude 23 50 0.00, W Longitude 75 35 0.00 (Point 1)

and N Latitude 24 3 0.00, W Longitude 75 49 0.00 (Point 2)



33.764 kilometers; 20.980 miles
Azimuth from point 1 to point 2 = 315.50°

[artist]

000
URNT12 KNHC 250519
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 25/05:07:40Z
B. 24 deg 03 min N
075 deg 49 min W
C. 700 mb 2665 m
D. 75 kt
E. 050 deg 11 nm
F. 137 deg 96 kt
G. 045 deg 30 nm
H. 950 mb
I. 8 C / 3060 m
J. 16 C / 3044 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. OPEN W-NE
M. C32
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1709A IRENE OB 21
MAX FL WIND 96 KT NE QUAD 04:57:50Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 135 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
;



Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 05:19Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 5:07:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°03'N 75°49'W (24.05N 75.8167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 119 miles (191 km) to the SE (126°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,665m (8,743ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 75kts (~ 86.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (50°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 137° at 96kts (From the SE at ~ 110.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 950mb (28.05 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the west to the northeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 96kts (~ 110.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 4:57:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the SE (135°) from the flight level center

[fci]

It's worth noting that Irene will accelerate rapidly northward after passing Virginia and North Carolina. This will increase the asymmetry of the wind field. In other words, the "left" side of Irene, which is the west side in this case, will see considerably weaker winds; the "right" side of the storm will see considerably stronger winds. I think it's entirely possible that the wind speed could be 40 mph weaker on the west side of Irene than the wind speed on the right side. So, if peak winds in Irene are still 100 mph by the time it gets north towards Long Island, the winds on the west side of Irene may only be ~60 mph if Irene is moving northward at 20 mph at that time.

Of course, we also need to add in frictional effects that will be significant if the hurricane parallels the coast just off land. In that case, the strongest winds will likely occur as the center is immediately east of the shore, which means that the winds will be northerly on land. As such, any areas that are more than a few miles from the water will be dealing with winds that are and have been moving over land for some time. Frictional effects over land, as we know, can greatly decrease wind speeds as well.

We can't forget that many of these same coastal areas do see 60-80 mph Nor'Easters occasionally as well, so it's not like the coasts never see strong winda and consist of buildings that will collapse in 60 mph winds. The thing that makes this event so potentially costly and dangerous is that such a massively-populated swatch of land will be affected.

Do not get me wrong: this isn't to say that this won't be disastrous! However, I don't think we'll have to deal with anything like collapsing high-rises or extreme wind damage in areas from New Jersey northward. The high-resolution models support a very deep Irene (<935 mb past New Jersey), but with winds that are much weaker than we usually see with such a low surface pressure. As such, I don't think wind damage is going to be the greatest threat to structures, aside from fallen trees! I think the coastal flooding and surge potential is pretty significant, though. This is especially true if the eye really does criss-cross the coast as it rides northward, since it could pile up a lot of water to all the inlets in the area.

EDIT: For the SC and NC coast, though, I think wind damage may be substantial, depending upon how close the eye gets to the shoreline.

Thank you SO much for taking the time to post in this forum.
You have been a refreshing voice of reason and the knowledge you pass on helps us all understand better what is going on and what can happen.

[Bocadude85]

Well TS conditions back in our forecast...

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=26.384488478587272&lon=-80.06904602050781&site=mfl&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text

[SunnyThoughts]

Looking over at the recon thread...950 mb now in the vdm That is the lowest so far, while undergoing an erc...phew

[Hurricaneman]

950 pressure according to recon, and the inner eyewall is dead meaning this is in the start of an intensification cycle

[drezee]

And becuase I love you guys so much one more...

The 12z point for the NHC is 25.5N andf 76.5W

Distance between

N Latitude 25 30 0.00, W Longitude 76 30 0.00 (Point 1)

and N Latitude 24 3 0.00, W Longitude 75 49 0.00 (Point 2)



174.846 kilometers; 108.644 miles
Azimuth from point 2 to point 1 = 336.98°

It has to move NNW from here to hit that point...will it...

[SunnyThoughts]

950 pressure according to recon, and the inner eyewall is dead meaning this is in the start of an intensification cycle

Eyewall open W and NE gotta get that closed first, then off to the races with more intensification I assume. ( wish some dry air would get in there so everybody along the east coast wouldn't have to deal with something so strong) Guess that is just wishful hopeful thinking though.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250527
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 51 20110825
051800 2337N 07527W 6962 02947 9795 +106 +097 220089 090 064 003 03
051830 2336N 07526W 6973 02939 9808 +102 +099 217088 089 063 001 03
051900 2335N 07525W 6963 02963 9812 +105 +097 217086 086 059 003 03
051930 2334N 07524W 6970 02961 9821 +106 +097 217084 084 059 002 00
052000 2333N 07523W 6968 02971 9817 +119 +085 218083 084 059 004 03
052030 2332N 07521W 6969 02973 9823 +118 +073 217083 083 053 000 00
052100 2331N 07520W 6966 02986 9829 +120 +067 219084 084 053 001 03
052130 2330N 07519W 6967 02994 9840 +120 +065 220082 084 053 001 03
052200 2329N 07518W 6967 02997 9847 +119 +063 222080 080 053 002 00
052230 2328N 07516W 6968 03002 9862 +112 +076 222080 081 054 003 03
052300 2327N 07515W 6969 03006 9870 +099 +094 218078 083 /// /// 05
052330 2327N 07513W 6969 02983 //// +087 //// 213077 081 /// /// 05
052400 2327N 07510W 6966 03009 //// +082 //// 215070 073 059 009 05
052430 2327N 07508W 6959 03025 //// +084 //// 217071 076 061 015 05
052500 2327N 07506W 6974 03015 //// +078 //// 206077 082 059 015 05
052530 2326N 07505W 6967 03017 //// +064 //// 200078 078 060 017 05
052600 2325N 07504W 6964 03027 //// +067 //// 199078 078 057 018 01
052630 2324N 07504W 6972 03019 //// +063 //// 202078 079 059 015 05
052700 2323N 07503W 6968 03029 //// +061 //// 204075 076 058 015 01
052730 2321N 07502W 6957 03044 9935 +072 //// 207077 080 056 011 01
$$
;