ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Mouton]

Probably digesting the new info....looks like it will come around later than normal though with a probably move to the west.

[Florida1118]

Yeah they are still confident in it NNW...in about 18hours...

[Bobo2000]

Ahh turning to sea. Well, we saw that before MANY times.

[Evil Jeremy]

SO FAR MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...HAVE HAD A NORTHWARD
BIAS. EVEN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS STILL REFORMS THE CYCLONE
NORTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS...BRINGING EMILY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AND
THEN EASTERN CUBA. AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.

[SouthFLTropics]

Based on the coordinates I am reading on the forecast advisory it appears that they actually bumped the track a gnats hair to the east...by about .4 degrees.

SFT

[Mouton]

Wow...they really believe it is going to turn on a dime....I am floored.

[NDG]

Got to love Avila.

[caneseddy]

SO FAR MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...HAVE HAD A NORTHWARD
BIAS. EVEN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS STILL REFORMS THE CYCLONE
NORTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS...BRINGING EMILY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AND
THEN EASTERN CUBA. AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.

They are assuming the trough will take it out...they must think that trough will be deep enough for this time....a la Charley in 2004

[Florida1118]

SO FAR MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...HAVE HAD A NORTHWARD
BIAS. EVEN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS STILL REFORMS THE CYCLONE
NORTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS...BRINGING EMILY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AND
THEN EASTERN CUBA. AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.

They are assuming the trough will take it out

Well, they would hope...If not, its not like they are going to get hammered for being wrong. It'll just go a tad more west than they are thinking

[Airboy]

From the recon It do look like the west movment have stop a bit and it's going more north now.

[Blown Away]

AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.

Finally acknowledge the continued W track and future complications. Man does the NHC love that TVCN!!

[jonj2040]

000
URNT15 KNHC 032100
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 28 20110803
205030 1625N 07000W 8427 01555 0077 +175 +084 220027 029 030 000 00
205100 1624N 06959W 8428 01551 0078 +172 +085 219028 029 029 000 00
205130 1622N 06958W 8427 01554 0079 +172 +084 221029 029 032 000 00
205200 1621N 06957W 8426 01557 0079 +175 +083 220030 032 032 001 00
205230 1620N 06955W 8429 01553 0077 +178 +084 223029 030 031 000 00
205300 1619N 06954W 8430 01554 0079 +178 +085 221029 029 030 001 00
205330 1618N 06953W 8429 01555 0079 +179 +086 217029 030 031 000 00
205400 1616N 06952W 8428 01558 0083 +175 +086 217029 030 031 002 00
205430 1615N 06950W 8429 01555 0083 +175 +087 219030 030 035 002 00
205500 1614N 06949W 8425 01560 0084 +173 +087 217026 027 035 002 00
205530 1613N 06948W 8431 01556 0085 +173 +087 207027 029 035 001 00
205600 1612N 06947W 8430 01557 0085 +173 +086 205029 030 033 001 00
205630 1610N 06946W 8426 01562 0088 +170 +085 209028 029 032 002 00
205700 1609N 06944W 8426 01560 0090 +166 +084 209027 028 032 002 00
205730 1608N 06943W 8428 01561 0092 +166 +083 203027 028 031 002 00
205800 1607N 06942W 8430 01558 0089 +171 +083 206026 027 033 000 00
205830 1606N 06941W 8426 01561 0090 +167 +084 198027 028 031 002 00
205900 1604N 06940W 8429 01560 0098 +154 +083 191028 030 031 007 00
205930 1603N 06938W 8451 01537 0094 +162 +082 194032 033 032 007 00
210000 1602N 06937W 8423 01565 0091 +166 +081 194032 032 028 004 00
$$
;

[Bocadude85]

lol the TVCN was slightly right of the NHC track thats why they shifted it slightly to the right

[Evil Jeremy]

The new cone is expecting an incredibly sharp turn turn to the NW very soon, and yet Emily continues West. Again, at what point does the forecasted turn become too steep to be reasonable?

[wxman57]

A little snippet from the new advisory

INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

I think that's the first time I've seen them mention for South Florida to monitor the progress

That goes without saying. A TS forecast to pass 100 miles offshore - south Florida needs to monitor it. But if Emily tracks farther west than forecast, it'll be over Cuba for quite a while. That could knock it down to a TD or even a wave.

[SouthFLTropics]

SO FAR MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...HAVE HAD A NORTHWARD
BIAS. EVEN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS STILL REFORMS THE CYCLONE
NORTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS...BRINGING EMILY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AND
THEN EASTERN CUBA. AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.

They are assuming the trough will take it out

They are sure hugging their models over there at the NHC. I normally would as well but we have all sat for the last 24 hours and watched Miss Emily chug west blowing past forecast points. If it continues to do so by the 11:00PM update tonight and especially by tomorrow at 5:00AM they will have to accept the fact that something isn't right.

Maybe Lixion watched too much ballet in the offseason...LOL

[KWT]

They are going with the GFS suite it seems then...

At least they have adjusted the track to the west for the first 12hrs, though they are still pretty keen on that track NW, but they expect it to track over E.Cuba now...

[HurricaneWarning92]

Okay so it is getting stronger now? the heck? and they are very stubborn with that wnw to nw track. Shifting it to the right? hmm...

[ronjon]

HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.

Well isn't that the understatement of the year, LOL! The Gulfstream IV sampling flight is underway and should be completed for the 00z runs of the models so we shall see.

[dixiebreeze]

I'd say the deepening pressure is one of the keynotes of the 5 p.m. update.