ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[NDG]

I don't get it, if they admitted that most dynamical models and the GFS have been right bias, why did they still kept the track well east of FL, if anyting they moved it a little to the right with the 12z ECMWF which has been right so far tracking the storm very close to Palm beach on Saturday

[cycloneye]

Let's not post whole paragraphs of advisory discussions,only the important sentence that any member may want to highlight.We have an advisories thread where the members can read the whole discussions,thanks for the cooperation.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking forward to some good model runs late tonight. Get the popcorn and Mich Ultra ready to go. Will be interesting to see what the G-IV data leads to. Personally I still think that the models won't have a good handle on this system until it gets north of the big islands. Then we will have to see what is left to work with and go from there.

SFT

[fwbbreeze]

SO FAR MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...HAVE HAD A NORTHWARD
BIAS. EVEN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS STILL REFORMS THE CYCLONE
NORTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS...BRINGING EMILY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AND
THEN EASTERN CUBA. AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.

They are assuming the trough will take it out

I once saw a Steven Segal movie Under Siege 2. There was an appropriate line in that movie that directly applies to this forecast. And I quote keeping it G rated "assumption is the mother of all screwups". At what point will they "assume' that if this western motion continues with the lessened overall structure that the trough will not in fact pick up the storm...or whatever is left?

[Bobo2000]

Now It says west. Mother Nature gave birth to a tricky daughter eh?

[jonj2040]

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[Aric Dunn]

I don't get it, if they admitted that most dynamical models and the GFS have been right bias, why did they still kept the track well east of FL, if anyting they moved it a little to the right with the 12z ECMWF which has been right so far tracking the storm very close to Palm beach on Saturday

continuity..

[gatorcane]

I am surprised they didn't nudge the entire cone to the left some, maybe by about 25-50 miles or so especially because the GFS has not been correct with this system as far as movement is concerned. At one point it had it going north of Hispaniola. Yet the ECMWF has been accurate with the movement for days now (go back and look at the ECMWF prediction and you will be amazed how accurate it has been), so why not put more weight into the ECMWF?

But by the next advisory they will be forced to if it is still moving W or WNW. They are probably giving Emily 6 more hours to see if she will finally turn to the NW....

[Florida1118]

They are assuming the trough will take it out

I once saw a Steven Segal movie Under Siege 2. There was an appropriate line in that movie that directly applies to this forecast. And I quote keeping it G rated "assumption is the mother of all screwups". At what point will they "assume' that if this western motion continues with the lessened overall structure that the trough will not in fact pick up the storm...or whatever is left?

Well what else can they do...Emily is being stubborn

[ronjon]

I don't get it, if they admitted that most dynamical models and the GFS have been right bias, why did they still kept the track well east of FL, if anyting they moved it a little to the right with the 12z ECMWF which has been right so far tracking the storm very close to Palm beach on Saturday

I think they're awaiting the 00z model package and watch it the next 6 hrs or so before they make any major changes (if necessary). The upper air environment is being sampled as we speak by the NOAA jet.

[ConvergenceZone]

A little snippet from the new advisory

INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

I think that's the first time I've seen them mention for South Florida to monitor the progress

That goes without saying. A TS forecast to pass 100 miles offshore - south Florida needs to monitor it. But if Emily tracks farther west than forecast, it'll be over Cuba for quite a while. That could knock it down to a TD or even a wave.

That might be why it's not much of a risk, other than some heavy rains. If it DOES not make the turn and continue more
west, then land interaction is going to kill whatever it's become, so it might just be a depression or wave hitting
Florida. On the other hand, if it does make the turn out to sea, then it could become a hurricane eventually.
Doesn't seem like really bad news for Florida, but if it does turn it might be close enough to Florida for some
TS storm winds.

[JPmia]

I don't get it, if they admitted that most dynamical models and the GFS have been right bias, why did they still kept the track well east of FL, if anyting they moved it a little to the right with the 12z ECMWF which has been right so far tracking the storm very close to Palm beach on Saturday

I think they're awaiting the 00z model package and watch it the next 6 hrs or so before they make any major changes (if necessary). The upper air environment is being sampled as we speak by the NOAA jet.

I think you're right about that.. the current model runs and recon are all they have attm so no need to drastically change forecast until they get this new data and maybe we all wake up to a little surprise tomorrow morning.

[HurricaneWarning92]

LOL Emily is just playing around with everyones head.

[KWT]

Looks like its slowed right down...

Still no VDM from the last pass through, I guess they missed the center despite dropping a dropsonde?

If they did hit the center, thats a big shift NW, almost NNW compared to the previous pass...will have to wait and see what the next pass through shows...

My gut is the system is starting its WNW track...convection to the north probably helping to set this off...

[artist]

000
URNT12 KNHC 032108
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052011
A. 03/20:38:40Z
B. 16 deg 52 min N
070 deg 32 min W
C. 850 mb 1462 m
D. 33 kt
E. 306 deg 24 nm
F. 036 deg 32 kt
G. 305 deg 20 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 18 C / 1524 m
J. 22 C / 1530 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 0805A EMILY OB 13
MAX FL WIND 41 KT NE QUAD 17:51:20Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 37 KT SE QUAD 21:02:50Z
;

[Blown Away]

I am surprised they didn't nudge the entire cone to the left some, maybe by about 25-50 miles or so. But by the next advisory they will be forced to if it is still moving W or WNW. They are probably giving Emily 6 more hours to see if she will finally turn to the NW....

Yep, I think they want a few more hours and get the data from upper levels to the N. If Emily tracks W or slightly N of W by 11pm they will need to nudge track W, IMO.

[jonj2040]

000
URNT15 KNHC 032110
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 29 20110803
210030 1601N 06936W 8430 01560 0092 +165 +079 193030 030 031 004 00
210100 1600N 06935W 8429 01560 0089 +172 +078 195030 030 031 001 00
210130 1559N 06934W 8426 01565 0089 +175 +078 191031 032 031 000 00
210200 1558N 06933W 8427 01564 0091 +173 +080 196031 032 031 005 00
210230 1557N 06932W 8409 01582 0097 +157 +081 193030 033 036 011 03
210300 1556N 06931W 8443 01541 0101 +145 +082 190036 038 034 020 00
210330 1555N 06930W 8428 01560 0092 +166 +078 192034 035 036 005 00
210400 1554N 06929W 8427 01561 0091 +170 +075 190034 034 034 000 00
210430 1553N 06928W 8425 01566 0094 +169 +075 186033 036 029 001 03
210500 1552N 06926W 8424 01571 0095 +171 +076 187032 033 027 004 03
210530 1554N 06926W 8429 01563 0095 +169 +077 182032 033 027 002 03
210600 1556N 06926W 8429 01560 0090 +171 +077 179033 034 031 003 03
210630 1558N 06926W 8416 01575 0091 +169 +076 178034 035 033 001 00
210700 1559N 06927W 8437 01552 0089 +170 +075 178035 038 035 003 00
210730 1601N 06927W 8424 01565 0090 +168 +074 174035 036 038 009 00
210800 1603N 06927W 8426 01563 0099 +155 +072 175034 035 039 012 00
210830 1605N 06927W 8429 01555 0112 +129 +069 171036 037 037 030 00
210900 1607N 06927W 8437 01548 0112 +129 +063 168036 036 051 028 00
210930 1609N 06927W 8431 01552 0109 +131 +059 165040 043 050 034 03
211000 1611N 06928W 8429 01553 0103 +141 +057 170039 043 048 019 03
$$
;

[Bobo2000]

Still saying that it's running west at 12 knots.

[Nimbus]

At least its consistent. They had to move the track right because the trough is further east. Emily may stay weak due to proximity to land (which would help reduce mudslides in Haiti) but that means a more westward track. After the gulf stream mission data gets into the models and the trough issue becomes more obvious they can change the track if necessary. The one liner at the end shows they are considering what might happen if the trough misses.

[jonj2040]

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