ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[jonj2040]

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[mutley]

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/2011/EMILY/images/Storm-05-Spaghetti.gif

Looks like more consensus to the East of Florida.

darc87

That my friend is hardly a consensus.

Agreed. With every update, it just seems to get more and more interesting. Where you going, Emily?

[jonj2040]

can someone pleas take over I got to go

[Bobo2000]

It's like Emily is scared of the US LOL

[Aric Dunn]

Silly question... so is the circle on top the last VDM I would assume so... if so it did not move ?

[CourierPR]

Before folks go gaga over a supposed turn, the NHC says the motion is WEST in the latest advisory. I just finished staring at the RAMSDIS loop and I don't see a solid NW turn.

[UpTheCreek]

Very novice question, but what might cause the NHC to forecast a strengthening from TS to CAT 1 all the way up towards NC? Mainly the SST's of the gulf stream?

[Bobo2000]

Very novice question, but what might cause the NHC to forecast a strengthening from TS to CAT 1 all the way up towards NC? Mainly the SST's of the gulf stream?

Maybe. But Bret was in the same place and it didn't intensify.

[mutley]

Look at this 5-day cone animated loop:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/gr ... p_5W.shtml

It's obvious that they are still expecting it to exit north quickly through that weakness, and that seems most likely. But it has to be bugging them that it is getting close to being iffy.

[hawkeh]

She's gonna try and shoot the gap between Haiti and Cuba. What a tricky situation all the way around. Prayers are with everyone in Haiti that is going to have to deal with the rainfall and mudslides.

SFT

Yeah I'm starting to think this as well. Shoot the gap between Haiti and Cuba get into the Bahamas then who knows.

[ROCK]

Aric, with this being so weak...i fully expect the LLC to suck back into convection....center relocations we have seen this before back by the islands...

[Bobo2000]

I have a theory. What if Emily moved a little more west and missed the gap, I mean that's a very small gap.

[artist]

Silly question... so is the circle on top the last VDM I would assume so... if so it did not move ?

yep, it should be. I have been wondering where everyone was getting that myself Here are the last 3 vdm positions.
First from this mission
16 deg 47 min N
070 deg 24 min W
next to last vortex
16 deg 49 min N
070 deg 29 min W
newest vortex
16 deg 52 min N
070 deg 32 min W

Now I don't really see much of anything there

[Sanibel]

The slow forward speed is probably a slowing before turning into the weakness.

[UpTheCreek]

Very novice question, but what might cause the NHC to forecast a strengthening from TS to CAT 1 all the way up towards NC? Mainly the SST's of the gulf stream?

Maybe. But Bret was in the same place and it didn't intensify.

True, basically same area, perhaps Bret was pulled east sooner. Should the track be similar at that point, hope Emily pulls eastbound at least as sharply!

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, with this being so weak...i fully expect the LLC to suck back into convection....center relocations we have seen this before back by the islands...

yeah I mentioned that a min ago.. but I was wondering why the map changed actually.. look at the recon thread... two different images have different VDM positions

[KWT]

Before folks go gaga over a supposed turn, the NHC says the motion is WEST in the latest advisory. I just finished staring at the RAMSDIS loop and I don't see a solid NW turn.

Its something of a recent development, but recon backs it up as does the Sat.imagery to a point...whether or not its a short term wobble or not we'll have to see but I think its probably heading WNW now...

[wxsouth]

A find it interesting that the low-level wind field (while not terribly strong) is the healthiest its been since the system developed. The recon data from all 4 quads finally have the look of a consolidated, well-defined system, with no more indications of a stretched out broad low.

[GeneratorPower]

Looks from the color scheme like it's just the BAMs and climatology which are advertising a Gulf of Mexico path. I would actually call that excellent consensus from the dynamical models.

[stormhunter7]

From point 1 to point 3 (VDM)... is less than 12 miles and a bearing of 300ish.