ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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#6381 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 03, 2011 5:03 pm

The storm Emily will hit maximum Dominican Republic and Haiti, warning
:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 133498.php
AFP03.08.2011

The storm tropical Emily, accompanied by heavy rain, was expected Wednesday evening in Dominican Republic and Haiti, where the authorities were preparing to evacuate tens of thousands of people living in tents since the January 2010 earthquake. -(AFP/Noaa)

The storm tropical Emily, accompanied by heavy rain, was expected Wednesday evening in Dominican Republic and Haiti, where the authorities were preparing to evacuate tens of thousands of people living in tents since the January 2010 earthquake.

In Haiti, emergency operations Centre national said stand ready to assist, where appropriate, to approximately 300,000 people, and more than 1,200 shelters have been made available to accommodate the displaced.

The authorities fear that pop-up floods create havoc in the makeshift camps installed in Port - au-Prince since the earthquake, where there are thousands of families in precarious conditions.

If the storm unleashed on the Haitian capital, emergency services may quickly find themselves overwhelmed.

"There is room for 30,000 people" at Port - in Port-au-Prince and the surrounding area, "it is largely insufficient," explained a close person of Civil Protection, speaking under cover of anonymity.

According to this source, schools, churches and other public buildings have been requisitioned, but lack most of the time of sanitary facilities.

"Several camps at risk will require an evacuation", but it will be decided that at the last moment, i.e. when the storm arrives, to be organized according to its severity, has added this source.

Another reason for concern: floods may lead to an outbreak of cholera epidemic, which made 5.821 dead since it first appeared last October, the water being one of the main vectors of the disease. A team of Cuban doctors stood ready to intervene if necessary.

21 H 00 GMT, Emily was 95 km to the South-South-West of the Beata island at the southern tip of the Dominican Republic and progressed to the West at a speed of 22 kmh, with winds blowing at 85 kmh, said the national Centre of us hurricanes (NHC), based in Miami.

At this pace, the storm had to touch the island of Hispaniola, shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic, to the "end of day", before continuing its path towards the Bahamas and the Islands-and-Caicos, Thursday, according to the NHC.

"At the present time, the storm should do feel its effects on certain parts of the Dominican Republic, mainly on the South coast," explains the NHC in its release.

Emily could lead to 15-30 cm of precipitation, floods and dangerous mudslides in Haiti and Dominican Republic, have warned us experts.

The Haitian authorities have decreed Tuesday morning warning red on the whole of the territory and called the inhabitants to leave areas at risk.

The national center of meteorology and marine and navigation of Haiti Service banned the navigation along the South coast of the country.

"All departments of Haiti are affected by the storm tropical Emily", said the Director of the Centre, Ronald Semelfort.

The Dominican Republic on the other hand was placed in maximum cyclonic alert (red alert) Tuesday in six provinces and in a State of preventive vigilance in seven other regions.

The Dominican authorities have also suspended recreation on all the coasts and rivers of the country.

Emily made a victim by electrocution Tuesday on the island of Martinique. Firefighters found a 62 year man lying in the water, an extension cord in hand, at his home in the popular district Volga of Fort-de-France, which is flooded.
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Re:

#6382 Postby USTropics » Wed Aug 03, 2011 5:05 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:The slowing is abating the effects of the shear a little bit and giving her a chance to get convection around the COC.

Expect her to begin the turn now. The slowing is indicative of a turn.


Yes I've seen this before. When the tropical systems begin to move around the periphery of the ridge, they appear to dip slightly SW right before they begin to turn to the NW.
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#6383 Postby Dave » Wed Aug 03, 2011 5:05 pm

Image

Image
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Re: Re:

#6384 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 03, 2011 5:06 pm

USTropics wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:The slowing is abating the effects of the shear a little bit and giving her a chance to get convection around the COC.

Expect her to begin the turn now. The slowing is indicative of a turn.


Yes I've seen this before. When the tropical systems begin to move around the periphery of the ridge, they appear to dip slightly SW right before they begin to turn to the NW.



from the looks of its just a cyclonic loops due to the building convection.. recon looks like its finding the center back east a little..
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#6385 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 03, 2011 5:08 pm

latest GFS heading for the KEys..
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Re: Re:

#6386 Postby CourierPR » Wed Aug 03, 2011 5:08 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
USTropics wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:The slowing is abating the effects of the shear a little bit and giving her a chance to get convection around the COC.

Expect her to begin the turn now. The slowing is indicative of a turn.


Yes I've seen this before. When the tropical systems begin to move around the periphery of the ridge, they appear to dip slightly SW right before they begin to turn to the NW.



from the looks of its just a cyclonic loops due to the building convection.. recon looks like its finding the center back east a little..


I agree, Aric. You can see it on RAMSDIS floater.
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#6387 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 03, 2011 5:10 pm

actually drifing north looks like landfall southern tip of florida..
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Re:

#6388 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Aug 03, 2011 5:12 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:actually drifing north looks like landfall southern tip of florida..


But virtually nothing, shows it as an open wave. leaves the greatest 850mb vorticity off to the east.
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#6389 Postby Dave » Wed Aug 03, 2011 5:12 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 032210
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 35 20110803
220030 1658N 07029W 8430 01532 0031 +216 +077 106003 004 016 000 00
220100 1656N 07029W 8428 01534 0030 +217 +079 192002 003 024 000 00
220130 1655N 07029W 8429 01532 0030 +214 +081 217007 011 026 001 00
220200 1653N 07029W 8422 01536 0028 +217 +083 214013 015 030 001 03
220230 1652N 07030W 8427 01533 0028 +218 +084 211014 014 034 001 03
220300 1651N 07031W 8430 01530 0029 +215 +084 210011 013 034 000 00
220330 1650N 07032W 8425 01537 0033 +212 +084 221008 009 032 001 00
220400 1649N 07033W 8431 01532 0036 +210 +084 223007 007 031 000 00
220430 1648N 07035W 8426 01538 0040 +205 +085 246008 009 030 000 00
220500 1646N 07036W 8428 01537 0043 +203 +086 253009 010 028 000 00
220530 1645N 07037W 8427 01538 0047 +199 +086 263012 014 028 001 00
220600 1644N 07038W 8428 01539 0051 +193 +087 274014 016 030 000 00
220630 1643N 07040W 8426 01543 0054 +189 +087 285010 011 029 001 00
220700 1642N 07041W 8428 01542 0059 +184 +086 290014 015 027 000 00
220730 1641N 07042W 8428 01543 0060 +182 +086 275014 015 028 000 00
220800 1640N 07043W 8428 01543 0061 +184 +085 277016 016 025 000 00
220830 1639N 07044W 8429 01542 0059 +185 +085 279015 015 026 001 00
220900 1638N 07046W 8430 01542 0060 +189 +087 286014 014 026 000 00
220930 1637N 07047W 8426 01547 0061 +190 +088 292014 014 027 000 00
221000 1636N 07048W 8430 01545 0060 +193 +090 295013 013 026 000 00
$$
;
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#6390 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 03, 2011 5:14 pm

Here are some others pics in Martinica after Emily, these are really impressive as those in PR that Cycloneye share us kindly. :( Hope that Emily won't bring these type of damage in DR and Haiti, they don't need after the last quake in 2010.

:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 3diaporama
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Re: Re:

#6391 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 03, 2011 5:14 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:actually drifing north looks like landfall southern tip of florida..


But virtually nothing, shows it as an open wave. leaves the greatest 850mb vorticity off to the east.



yep.. not worried.. gfs typically has weak systems when they are strong.. not saying this will be strong.. but never paid much attention to gfs strength ..
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#6392 Postby Dave » Wed Aug 03, 2011 5:15 pm

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#6393 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Aug 03, 2011 5:16 pm

The center is just meandering around down there. I think its getting tugged at by the deep convection just to the east.
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#6394 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 03, 2011 5:17 pm

Anybody have the latest weather conditions in DR?
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#6395 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Aug 03, 2011 5:17 pm

And now the sun is setting, which will make this sucker really hard to track.
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Re:

#6396 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 03, 2011 5:17 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:The center is just meandering around down there. I think its getting tugged at by the deep convection just to the east.



exactly.. the fix looks like 16.52 again.. same as last pass.. thats where lowest pressure was at..
the overall motion of the system is still west.. the core can wobble like a top within the our circ..
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6397 Postby jonj2040 » Wed Aug 03, 2011 5:23 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
AJC3 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
ok just somehow ended up in foreground ...thought it looked funny.


In google Earth the icon on top represents the one most recently scrolled over by the mouse
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I am just an amateur and a "noob" at that so any speculations that I have made are just that, uneducated speculations. Please refer to the NHC for accurate information.
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#6398 Postby Dave » Wed Aug 03, 2011 5:23 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 032220
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 36 20110803
221030 1634N 07049W 8429 01549 0062 +190 +091 299014 014 025 000 00
221100 1633N 07050W 8426 01551 0065 +190 +091 301014 015 025 001 00
221130 1632N 07052W 8428 01550 0065 +190 +092 301014 014 026 001 00
221200 1631N 07053W 8429 01549 0063 +195 +092 304014 015 024 001 00
221230 1630N 07054W 8432 01547 0064 +190 +093 307014 015 025 000 00
221300 1630N 07054W 8432 01547 0068 +190 +093 311014 015 023 000 00
221330 1628N 07057W 8428 01553 0068 +190 +093 313014 015 023 000 03
221400 1627N 07058W 8429 01552 0069 +187 +093 313012 013 023 000 00
221430 1625N 07059W 8424 01558 0069 +188 +093 321012 013 024 000 00
221500 1624N 07100W 8430 01552 0070 +192 +093 327014 014 023 000 00
221530 1623N 07102W 8428 01556 0072 +190 +094 330013 014 023 000 00
221600 1622N 07103W 8429 01554 0074 +187 +094 334013 014 021 001 00
221630 1621N 07104W 8428 01558 0077 +182 +094 338014 015 020 000 00
221700 1620N 07105W 8429 01556 0076 +180 +094 329013 013 018 000 00
221730 1619N 07107W 8428 01558 0078 +181 +094 329014 015 018 000 00
221800 1617N 07108W 8428 01558 0077 +183 +094 328013 014 018 000 00
221830 1616N 07109W 8429 01556 0078 +181 +094 334010 010 017 000 00
221900 1615N 07111W 8428 01558 0079 +180 +095 340011 013 017 000 00
221930 1614N 07112W 8429 01559 0076 +186 +095 340012 012 017 000 00
222000 1613N 07113W 8425 01563 0074 +190 +096 336011 011 015 000 00
$$
;
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Re: Re:

#6399 Postby AJC3 » Wed Aug 03, 2011 5:24 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:The center is just meandering around down there. I think its getting tugged at by the deep convection just to the east.



exactly.. the fix looks like 16.52 again.. same as last pass.. thats where lowest pressure was at..
the overall motion of the system is still west.. the core can wobble like a top within the our circ..


I think the wind was 211/14 there, which would imply the center is alittle to the WNW of there, which makes perfect sense.
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#6400 Postby Dave » Wed Aug 03, 2011 5:25 pm

Image
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