ATL: IRENE - Models

[jlauderdal]

Is there any place safer than a target ten days out? I just can't remember any storms following the script for more than 3-5 days.

Of course, I could be having a senior moment.

ten days out there is time for it to flip flop back to you, i prefer 5 days because it will more than likely be off by around 300 miles and not have time to come back at you

[USTropics]

132 hours, looks like this will also slide just to the north of Jamaica in between Cuba:

[USTropics]

Out to 156 hours. Big difference from the 00z run at this time frame. Heading north/northwest now, looking like a central Cuba strike:

[USTropics]

168 hours, strengthening system as it moves northward over Cuba:

[USTropics]

216 hours now, heading north just offshore the west coast of Florida. Looks like a Florida panhandle hit on this run. Again shifted east from the 00z run.



And 228 hours, Florida landfall:

[ronjon]

06z NOGAPS through S FL and up the western side of the state.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2011081906&set=Tropical

[ronjon]

06z GFS high resolution at 192 hrs - moves N-NE into Cedar Key.

[KWT]

06z GFS is not good at all, misses the mountions of Hispaniola and then carries on into some very warm waters in the NW Caribbean and into the Gulf as a strengthening system.

ECM is different, track would probably lead to a somewhat stunted development at least in the medium term, probably a cat-1 into Miami and then a bigger hit down the road...

[RevDodd]

06z NOGAPS through S FL and up the western side of the state.

Not one to be borrowing trouble, but where the heck did that second, smaller system over Puerto Rico come from at the end of that run?

[Blown Away]

If those runs go N of Hispaniola that's when it becomes extremely worrisome for SFL.

[jlauderdal]

06z GFS is not good at all, misses the mountions of Hispaniola and then carries on into some very warm waters in the NW Caribbean and into the Gulf as a strengthening system.

ECM is different, track would probably lead to a somewhat stunted development at least in the medium term, probably a cat-1 into Miami and then a bigger hit down the road...

there appears to be an opening from 79w to abut 83w if you look at all the models and the various tracks they have, i believe it was ivanhater that posted a graphic with a similar setup a couple of days ago...all interests from nassau to say new orleans better be ready, could change but we have some consistency now

[ronjon]

06z NOGAPS through S FL and up the western side of the state.

Not one to be borrowing trouble, but where the heck did that second, smaller system over Puerto Rico come from at the end of that run?

Wouldn't worry too much about that with NOGAPS - its been known to develop spurious lows quite often. Not one of better performing models.

[USTropics]

06z NOGAPS through S FL and up the western side of the state.

Not one to be borrowing trouble, but where the heck did that second, smaller system over Puerto Rico come from at the end of that run?

Looks like it tries to spin a system up from the ITCZ, with the system further behind being 98L.

[ronjon]

If those runs go N of Hispaniola that's when it becomes extremely worrisome for SFL.

BA, a track similar to the Euro moving N-NE across central Cuba toward S FL would not be good either.

[Blown Away]

If those runs go N of Hispaniola that's when it becomes extremely worrisome for SFL.

BA, a track similar to the Euro moving N-NE across central Cuba toward S FL would not be good either.

I know, all hurricanes are bad but very few Major strikes on the Florida peninsula from storms crossing over Cuba/Hispaniola. I know Charley!

[KWT]

It would be but then it'd probably have 24-36hrs over water, even if it bombed out it probably wouldn't be quite as bad as it would be if it was just a little south and missed Cuba totally till it swang up...aka GFS and to a degree the CMC solution.

[gatorcane]

Flip-flopping continues. Looks like the globals like peninsula Florida on this run. Consensus track is into Hispaniola and the models are generally moving this towards the SE CONUS. Less central and western GOM runs now. Look how some of the GFS ensembles are east of Florida. Some through South Florida.

Notice the GFDL does not develop and the HWRF develops this system and takes it north of hispaniola

[SFLcane]

Could be out sea before its all said and done.

[KWT]

I'd be rather surprised but its not impossible I suppose that it follows an Emily type track through the Bahamas then out to sea...

However I feel odds of that are still rather slim.

[gatorcane]

The 00z FIM calls for a South Florida strike from the south and is in remarkably excellent agreement on the track through 200 hours with the ECMWF.

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/displayMap.c ... n=0&wjet=1