ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Evil Jeremy]

18z HWRF west of the 12z run. Has Emily riding up the Florida east coast in 78 hours:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html

[TheBurn]

One last VIS shot before sunset

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Anyone knows with JB is thinking on this system? It certainly has been an interesting storm!!

He's probably just "Trying to reason with hurricane season".

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z HWRF west of the 12z run. Has Emily riding up the Florida east coast in 78 hours:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html

Looks like Hurricane software for Atari..lol

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 032320
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 42 20110803
231030 1702N 07011W 8433 01550 0082 +173 +076 174019 023 043 009 00
231100 1702N 07010W 8429 01557 0090 +162 +075 158026 031 047 015 00
231130 1702N 07008W 8424 01562 0089 +162 +074 160033 038 052 025 03
231200 1703N 07007W 8447 01536 0089 +164 +074 137031 033 059 018 03
231230 1704N 07005W 8439 01548 0095 +156 +073 147031 035 044 018 00
231300 1704N 07003W 8431 01557 0080 +186 +073 140026 032 041 005 00
231330 1704N 07002W 8423 01566 0075 +192 +071 137021 023 041 001 00
231400 1705N 07000W 8430 01557 0079 +185 +072 144021 023 040 002 00
231430 1705N 07000W 8430 01557 0082 +182 +073 151017 019 041 003 00
231500 1706N 06957W 8439 01550 0083 +184 +072 125013 015 043 005 00
231530 1706N 06956W 8410 01577 0083 +181 +071 142012 018 044 005 00
231600 1707N 06954W 8419 01567 0088 +174 +070 170023 026 041 002 00
231630 1707N 06952W 8432 01557 0089 +173 +070 164022 027 039 003 00
231700 1708N 06951W 8430 01559 0093 +167 +068 167032 035 037 004 03
231730 1708N 06949W 8419 01572 0091 +169 +066 161036 038 034 004 03
231800 1708N 06947W 8429 01561 0092 +169 +064 162039 040 035 001 00
231830 1708N 06946W 8422 01567 0089 +174 +064 164041 042 035 003 00
231900 1707N 06945W 8425 01563 0092 +169 +065 168038 040 034 003 00
231930 1707N 06943W 8430 01561 0098 +162 +065 165038 039 035 004 00
232000 1706N 06942W 8424 01568 0101 +157 +064 164038 040 034 005 00
$$
;

[Bocadude85]

18z HWRF west of the 12z run. Has Emily riding up the Florida east coast in 78 hours:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html

Yea looks like landfall around Palm Beach

[Bluefrog]

Atari software ... that is freaking hilarious .... and it does .... i spit my beer out laughing .....

[Evil Jeremy]

Atari lol. Looks like the NHC budget cuts have thrown us back into the 8-bit era.

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 032324
XXAA 53238 99169 70706 04460 99004 28215 24510 00033 28013 25009
92723 24011 24510 85463 20056 29001 88999 77999
31313 09608 82300
61616 AF306 0805A EMILY OB 22
62626 EYE SPL 1689N07059W 2302 MBL WND 25508 AEV 20802 DLM WND 25
007 003843 WL150 25009 083 REL 1688N07060W 230035 SPG 1688N07059W
230227 =
XXBB 53238 99169 70706 04460 00004 28215 11863 21013 22850 20056
33843 19060
21212 00004 24510 11917 25010 22857 23503 33843 35503
31313 09608 82300
61616 AF306 0805A EMILY OB 22
62626 EYE SPL 1689N07059W 2302 MBL WND 25508 AEV 20802 DLM WND 25
007 003843 WL150 25009 083 REL 1688N07060W 230035 SPG 1688N07059W
230227 =
;

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE OB 22

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 23:24Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 22

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 23Z on the 3rd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 16.9N 70.6W
Location: 119 miles (191 km) to the SSW (203°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
Marsden Square: 044 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1004mb (29.65 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 28.2°C (82.8°F) 26.7°C (80.1°F) 245° (from the WSW) 10 knots (12 mph)
1000mb 33m (108 ft) 28.0°C (82.4°F) 26.7°C (80.1°F) 250° (from the WSW) 9 knots (10 mph)
925mb 723m (2,372 ft) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 22.9°C (73.2°F) 245° (from the WSW) 10 knots (12 mph)
850mb 1,463m (4,800 ft) 20.0°C (68.0°F) Approximately 14°C (57°F) 290° (from the WNW) 1 knots (1 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 23:00Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 16.89N 70.59W
Splash Time: 23:02Z

Release Location: 16.88N 70.6W View map)
Release Time: 23:00:35Z

Splash Location: 16.88N 70.59W (
Splash Time: 23:02:27Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 255° (from the WSW)
- Wind Speed: 8 knots (9 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 250° (from the WSW)
- Wind Speed: 7 knots (8 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 1003mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 250° (from the WSW)
- Wind Speed: 9 knots (10 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1004mb (Surface) 28.2°C (82.8°F) 26.7°C (80.1°F)
863mb 21.0°C (69.8°F) 19.7°C (67.5°F)
850mb 20.0°C (68.0°F) Approximately 14°C (57°F)
843mb 19.0°C (66.2°F) Approximately 9°C (48°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1004mb (Surface) 245° (from the WSW) 10 knots (12 mph)
917mb 250° (from the WSW) 10 knots (12 mph)
857mb 235° (from the SW) 3 knots (3 mph)
843mb 355° (from the N) 3 knots (3 mph)




[tcast305]

Anybody have the latest weather conditions in DR?

We have a few members in the DR and Haiti. I was hoping they might come online and report.

It's currently cloudy just light rain every once and a while so far here in Santo Domingo, DR. Also a little breeze but that has seemed to stop, nothing really to write about.

[Florida1118]

Jim Cantore and Bryan Norcross on TWC dont think Emily is going to follow the NHC path, they said its possible it just keeps chugging west, but the turn the NHC forecast "Remains to be seen"

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 032330
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 43 20110803
232030 1706N 06940W 8428 01564 0101 +160 +064 164042 043 035 006 00
232100 1705N 06939W 8429 01564 0102 +160 +064 166042 044 037 005 00
232130 1705N 06937W 8428 01564 0101 +162 +063 166040 042 036 008 00
232200 1704N 06936W 8426 01570 0105 +159 +063 161034 035 037 008 00
232230 1704N 06934W 8431 01566 0104 +161 +064 161033 034 036 008 00
232300 1703N 06933W 8430 01565 0103 +162 +064 159032 033 035 007 00
232330 1703N 06932W 8428 01570 0100 +170 +064 159029 030 035 007 00
232400 1702N 06930W 8432 01564 0102 +166 +065 160028 029 035 008 00
232430 1701N 06929W 8426 01572 0105 +162 +065 158028 030 037 009 00
232500 1701N 06928W 8430 01568 0103 +167 +065 162032 033 037 009 00
232530 1700N 06926W 8428 01572 0105 +163 +065 161031 032 036 010 00
232600 1659N 06925W 8429 01568 0104 +167 +065 167031 033 036 007 00
232630 1658N 06924W 8430 01569 0101 +170 +065 163034 034 035 007 00
232700 1657N 06923W 8425 01573 0102 +170 +065 164034 034 036 007 00
232730 1657N 06922W 8433 01565 0101 +170 +064 164034 034 035 008 00
232800 1656N 06920W 8429 01571 0104 +169 +064 162034 034 034 008 00
232830 1655N 06919W 8428 01572 0103 +171 +065 165031 032 034 007 00
232900 1654N 06918W 8432 01571 0104 +169 +065 166030 031 033 008 00
232930 1652N 06918W 8429 01575 0106 +170 +065 163031 032 032 007 03
233000 1651N 06918W 8423 01579 0109 +161 +065 159033 034 030 007 00
$$
;

[Florida1118]

And she Stalls...Ugh this storm...

8:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 3
Location: 16.9°N 70.6°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1004 mb

[Jevo]

Anyone knows with JB is thinking on this system? It certainly has been an interesting storm!!

He's probably just "Trying to reason with hurricane season".

"I used to be on TV!!!"

[StormClouds63]

Turn to a more northward motion should begin soon. Looking at this large-scale loop, a hint of a northward jog can be detected:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[Dave]

[CourierPR]

Distracts me from weather.. Emily will try to reorganize on other side of Hispaniola tomorrow, End game still much the same---
Bastardi tweets

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
800 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011

...EMILY STALLS...STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 70.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO FRANCIS VIEJO SOUTHEASTWARD TO
CABO ENGANO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS
VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST. EMILY HAS MOVED LITTLE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WESTWARD
MOTION OF ABOUT 14 MPH...22 KM/H IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI EARLY THURSDAY AND MOVE
OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS EMILY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST...AND WILL
LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...AND THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN