ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SunnyThoughts]

Found an interesting article relating lightning and hurricanes:

"If your hurricane people see the lightning all of a sudden become very active, you are probably expecting in the next couple hours that this hurricane will be intensified," Shao said ( I know we don't actually have a hurricane at this time with Emily, but I Knew I had read somewhere that lightning does indeed signal strengthening) Here's a link to the article...pretty interesting.

http://www.news4jax.com/news/20215913/detail.html

[wxsouth]

From the recon thread:
000
URNT11 KNHC 040008
97779 23514 40160 69740 15300 17020 17069 /2508
RMK AF306 0805A EMILY OB 24
FREQUENT LTG IN TS LOCATED 060 AT 15

Isn't lightening inside a system sometimes indicative of strengthening?

Usually tropical systems have little lightning in the core. Its more in the outer bands.

Lightning in the core of a well-developed system can be a sign of strengthening. In weaker systems, it may be more indicative of shear. The convection associated with Don had tremendous amounts of lightning.

[wzrgirl1]

From the recon thread:
000
URNT11 KNHC 040008
97779 23514 40160 69740 15300 17020 17069 /2508
RMK AF306 0805A EMILY OB 24
FREQUENT LTG IN TS LOCATED 060 AT 15

Isn't lightening inside a system sometimes indicative of strengthening?

Usually tropical systems have little lightning in the core. Its more in the outer bands.

Except for really strong systems, i.e. Andrew had plenty of lightning.

[AJC3]

Yeoman effort, Dave! On behalf of myself and ALL of S2K, thanks!

[Florida1118]

:uarrow: Thats about as far spread as it gets

Throw out the BAMs. They are useless. When they are gone, we actually have a pretty good consensus. Florida, or just to the East.

Dont anyone shoot me for this because I know some of ya'll dont like TWC, but Jim Cantore and Bryan Norcross said they handle the system better than the ones taking the system out to sea....

[Kory]

:uarrow: Thats about as far spread as it gets

Throw out the BAMs. They are useless. When they are gone, we actually have a pretty good consensus. Florida, or just to the East.

The BAMs were the one that had the southern course Emily has been taking.

[SunnyThoughts]

Thank you WXSOUTH...interesting indeed.

[northjaxpro]

Just in case somebody has a question what is going to be making Emily move on a WNW to NW track over the next couple of days.
As you know this morning there was trough of low pressure to her NW in the western Atlantic. That trough is now lifting out but leaving a weakness in the ridge, Emily will be moving towards that weakness but she cannot move too much poleward initially because ridging will be moving back in place of the trough before yet another trough starts coming down late weekend and pushes the ridge back SE.
There has been differences between the strength of the ridge that is pushing back from her NE with the GFS previously showing a weaker ridge, the UKMET showing the stronger ridge and then the ECMWF showing a consensus between them two.
A weaker ridge will mean that Emily will track well east of FL before the next trough comes down, a stronger ridge moving back in from the Atlantic means a more western track close or on top of SE FL before a bend back to the NE as the next trough comes down.
I hope this explains it for those of you that might be wondering what is going to be steering Emily over the next two to three days.

I am picking the euro below because is a consensus between the UKMET and GFS, you can see the ridge moving back in tomorrow through Saturday before the trough pushes it back SE.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/1108040 ... 000_an.gif

This is as good an explanation of the situation for the next 72 hours. I also agree that the Euro solution is probably a good one to follow. But, the way Emily has behaved to this point, nothing can be ruled out with the track. We'll know more hopefully with the set-up with the steering hopefully by this time tomorrow or early Friday at the latest.

[stormreader]

:uarrow: Thats about as far spread as it gets

Throw out the BAMs. They are useless. When they are gone, we actually have a pretty good consensus. Florida, or just to the East.

They are so extremely far west its true. But the "credible models" have taken recent shifts west on their last runs. Even though the Bam solutions might be outrageous, its possible that their telling us that their might be more shifts west with the "credible models".

[TheShrimper]

Yes, I would throw out the BAMS but I wouldn't discount the fact that they are moving west as are most of the models. Fl. needs to watch closely, especially y'all in Dade, Broward and PB Counties.

[cycloneye]

The closest yet by TVCN,near Palm Beach,then goes out to sea.

[SapphireSea]

General rule of thumb with the BAMs is to not give them much weight once a storm is above 15 degrees N latitude. The farther out of the deep tropics a storm gets the more unreliable they become. Although it is very interesting that the BAMD is farther west and south than the shallower BAM suites. This often indicates that there is something suspect with the model's calculations. (The often do not work well with phasing changes in mid-latitude ridges and troughs, which is why reliability decreases outside the deep tropics from what I understand)

[Dave]

Yeoman effort, Dave! On behalf of myself and ALL of S2K, thanks!

Thanks AJC3 & all S2K!

[Kory]

BAMs are reliable models in the lower latitudes.

[Jevo]

Has the Gulfstream IV sampling from a few hours ago started going into the model runs yet?

[SunnyThoughts]

Also from the recon thread:

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
RAPID TS DEVELOPMENT IN SE QUAD

Guess she is trying her best to intensify. I sure hate the fact Haiti is going to be feeling ANY effects at all from this. Hopefully they will be as minimal as possible.

[NDG]

Major shift westward by the concensus.

[Evil Jeremy]

Has the Gulfstream IV sampling from a few hours ago started going into the model runs yet?

Should start with the 00z GFS run starting at around 11:30

[Kory]

Major shift westward by the concensus.

Yep, right now I wouldn't consider any solution out...not even the BAMs.

[ballred]

I usually don't have a lot to add due to the experience of others, but.. The thing that is really striking to me is the wide dispersion of the models in the near term. We always see the widening of the cone going out into the future, but I don't recall any circumstance in the recent past where things are so spread out in the next 12 - 24 hours. Food for thought as folks try to extrapolate a track into the future.