ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[pgoss11]

It looks to be an enormous storm once it gets it's act together. This will be a wild ride for some of our island friends.

[CrazyC83]

I'd be preparing for a hurricane if in the Leeward Islands. Treat it like a watch is out now, since it would hit by late Monday or Tuesday if it develops. Don't get caught off guard like with Tomas.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro..72 hours.....hitting the Islands



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[CrazyC83]

12z Euro..72 hours.....hitting the Islands



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It's about 95% certain the islands will be hit.

[Ivanhater]

96 hours ramping up fast



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120 hours..passes south of PR hits Haiti/DR



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[Gustywind]

[SouthFloridawx]

[cycloneye]

Michael, what intensity is when is just south of PR?

[Aric Dunn]

I really dont think the models have a clue on the size of the system... if it becomes a hurricane the size of frances or Floyed than we are going to have a very hard time with it recurving. Floyed only did because the trough that picked it up was very amplified. the models right with this system have bassically just a weakness no real trough. I noticed the end of the GFS before it got picked up it stalled because the trough lifted out and the high built in but not to much... the GFDL on the other hand build in the ridge much stronger.... going to be interesting because these large systems dont like to turn and with a progressive pattern the models are seeing .... A simple clear cut recurve is not likely.

[hurricanedude]

Now with all this 50/50 talk...i put my 50% on the East Coast.....or just offshore...I think an Earl like track is reasonable to play with at this early juncture...and playing is all Im doing because its to early to really even think about unless u are in PR or the other Islands..

[Ivanhater]

I can't tell Luis. The important thing is, it looks to be rapidly intensifying when moving through the Islands.

[CrazyC83]

I really dont think the models have a clue on the size of the system... if it becomes a hurricane the size of frances or Floyed than we are going to have a very hard time with it recurving. Floyed only did because the trough that picked it up was very amplified. the models right with this system have bassically just a weakness no real trough. I noticed the end of the GFS before it got picked up it stalled because the trough lifted out and the high built in but not to much... the GFDL on the other hand build in the ridge much stronger.... going to be interesting because these large systems dont like to turn and with a progressive pattern the models are seeing .... A simple clear cut recurve is not likely.

Florida I believe is only in play if it crossed Puerto Rico and/or Hispaniola though, and that would weaken the storm considerably.

My closest analogs I think are Allen, Gilbert, Georges, Emily (2005) and Gustav for this one.

[ronjon]

Euro at 120 hrs - smashes into Hispanola after moving south of PR.

[Gustywind]

Vorticity continues to increase tremendously...

[CrazyC83]

Euro at 120 hrs - smashes into Hispanola after moving south of PR.

How would Haiti hold up with that? Have they recovered enough from the earthquake?

[HurricaneWarning92]

I love the 50/50 chance thing...that covers your butt...LOL
theres always a 50/50 chance of everything.....plainly put it will or it want...thats 50/50
Now realistically this far out even thinking about where it will go is obserd.....fun to discuss but to really bank your money on it is not a good idea

I meant 50/50 once it gets to the islands or close to them. After that i think it can recurve or affect the U.S. i dont think this will go all the way to the western Caribbean. are you saying there is a 50/50 chance that it could go anywhere if it, lets say, gets near Bermuda? thats be more like 90/10 that it'll recurve, so 50/50 is not always the case.

[northjaxpro]

If the 120 hr Euro run comes to fruition, the island of Hispaniola would get a direct impact from this system. Also, the mountainous terrain could totally rip this system apart as well should it impact Hispaniola directly. Lots of variables.

Interesting Euro run.

[WxEnthus]

Plenty of missions starting on Sunday afternoon.

Thanks for the post! I thought the first RECON was going to be on Monday -- I guess that's what I get for looking at flight plans in the wee hours of the night when my eyes are heavy. Woohoo, I'm excited they're going out tomorrow!

Btw, can anyone explain what Flight Two is about?

[ronjon]

So far the ECM track looks similar to NOGAPs and NAM - who would have thunk it?

[cycloneye]

They will depart from St Croix,although in past years,some missions departed from Antigua and Barbados.