ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[djmikey]

I've been gone the past three days...what happened to invest 93? What are the long range models hinting at and where do you guys think the remnants of it will go? Hopefully TX! Any chance of that still? Thanks!

[northtxboy]

@ Lonelymike,,
As 93L moves off to the west it will get into the big area of 29+c water west of 50w. MJO starts to come back which favors upward developement in the Atlantic all at the same time 93L moves into ther Caribbean. The future track of this is still up in the air but there are some key features showing up in the models and they seem to be in general agreemnet on a very strong trough over the gulf of alaska in the next 5-7 days which I beleave would cause ridging over western Canada. This I beleave would cause the Texas ridge to move west over the Colorado area. In turn the weakness off thre east coast between this ridge and the Atlantic ridge would move farther to the west over the east gulf coast. I think this would leave an area for this storm to move into the gulf of mexico as it feels the weakness. I dont know what it will be,TD,TS,Hurricane, or just a open wave but I do beleave that there is a good chance of whatever it is to make landfall in a gulf state. Just something we need to keep an eye on. But please this is not a offical forecast and 99.9% of the time I have no idea what I am talking about. This is based on my own thought and you should look to the NHC for real info.

[Blown Away]

I've been gone the past three days...what happened to invest 93? What are the long range models hinting at and where do you guys think the remnants of it will go? Hopefully TX! Any chance of that still? Thanks!

93L was deactivated, IMO if this wave stays weak it goes into CA, if it develops before the islands it goes WNW generally towards NE Caribbean/Bahamas/SE CONUS, and if it stays weak through Caribbean it could develop over the NW Caribbean and get pulled into the GOM maybe towards Texas/Mexico.

[StormTracker]

Looks like it has it still has a decent moisture envelope, but once again the convection has fallen off! I thought the area that it is in now was supposed to be more conducive for development! I guess as it was mentioned earlier by several members, pulsing is to be expected at this point & time!

[HurricaneWarning92]

Conditions are not that conducive for development in the eastern Caribbean, maybe western later on, but IMO, this one is not gonna do much till about Wednesday/Thursday. It may not even get its act together by then either, so my hopes that i once had for 93L to develop have gone down the drain. The eastern Caribbean is fairly dry... will not do much, imo. This season has been "playing with us and the models" making us think one thing, but turned out otherwise. (Emily was never even a high end storm, and now 93L in which we thought was going to have the atmosphere moisten by 92L). Heck, im starting to think we may not see those beautiful, amazing hurricanes on satellite like we've seen before.

[Rgv20]

Well it looks like 93L is in a very good location to develop climatology speaking but given the current weak state it looks like it will develop 75W to 80W as the Eastern and Central Caribbean looks like a graveyard for TC formation.

[Blown Away]

Speaking for SFL, most of the hurricanes that effect SFL from the E or SE started development in the area where ex-93L is now. IMO, development, if any, likely won't happen until it's in the Caribbean.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Agree. If anything, it could develop in the western Caribbean but no sooner than that.

[South Texas Storms]

Well it would have been nice to track something interesting in the tropics during my last few weeks of summer before college starts back up. But it looks like the activity won't start to really pick up until school starts (like TS Hermine last September).
But I agree with you guys that say if 93L develops, it will probably develop in the NW Caribbean (like TS Don a few weeks ago).

[South Texas Storms]

0z NAM develops 93L in the eastern Caribbean in a few days and has it moving WNW in 84 hours at the end of its run.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[ROCK]

it is over the hottest water in the basin, no shear, no ULL shearing it out, moving out of SAL but yet it cant pop a LLC and crank up...it has vorticity. If it doesnt develope now it aint going to before it hits CA....

[ROCK]

NAM still bent on getting this wound up when all other globals just turn it into a few sprinkles.

[South Texas Storms]

There is currently some convection currently try to pop in the general vicinity of the highest vorticity.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-wv.html

[ROCK]

the 0Z GFS 66hrs..have to side with the GFS on speed here vs the NAM...NAM is too slow..

[AdamFirst]

It's just not gonna happen with this one, folks...next please.

[HurricaneWarning92]

It's just not gonna happen with this one, folks...next please.

LOL. I was just gonna say this. But yeah i agree with you. My hopes for this one have gone downhill.

[South Texas Storms]

I wouldn't write it off just yet, especially as we are approaching the peak of the season.

[ROCK]

NOGAPS doesnt think so...

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

deepens it and takes it into Belize.....this is about as strong of run I have seen from the NOGAPS and why it gains lat before crashing into CA....

[ROCK]

the GFS kills it into CA again....but does develope something behind it into a super cane....