ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Rainband]

18z model runs are going to be critical. I think we have a whole new ballgame.

Same ball game, just a stronger hurricane. The steering currents aren't changing.

Voice of reason.

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, I will be gone Tuesday from approx 8 am till 4 pm...have to make a run to Berea KY, about 3 hrs each way, but will try to pick up anything in the evening.

Ok no problem. I will be here and I know others will help with the first mission.

[Dave]

[AdamFirst]

According to Mark Sudduth on Twitter, crazy uncle HWRF gains a few points

hurricanetrack Mark Sudduth
I don't know if the HWRF was lucky or if it finally has scored a coup but it has done very well with the intensity... fb.me/Xt1hrq8F
47 minutes ago

hurricanetrack Mark Sudduth
Score one for the HWRF- it predicted Rina would be exactly what it is now: a hurricane within 24 hours....very good, this time....
50 minutes ago

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
this was yesterday's (Sunday the 23rd's) 12z HWRF run.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241916
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 30 20111024
190700 1805N 08216W 8431 01569 0098 +170 +133 123030 031 024 000 00
190730 1803N 08217W 8429 01570 0095 +174 +129 123029 029 022 000 00
190800 1802N 08219W 8429 01569 0094 +175 +126 119029 029 023 000 00
190830 1801N 08220W 8430 01568 0094 +172 +127 118030 030 024 000 00
190900 1800N 08221W 8430 01566 0096 +170 +130 118029 030 026 000 00
190930 1758N 08223W 8431 01564 0092 +173 +131 116028 029 028 000 00
191000 1757N 08224W 8429 01567 0091 +174 +130 115029 030 031 005 00
191030 1756N 08225W 8429 01564 0092 +169 +131 113030 030 032 011 00
191100 1755N 08226W 8434 01558 0094 +162 +138 111031 032 038 014 00
191130 1754N 08228W 8434 01556 0094 +160 +140 108031 032 038 016 00
191200 1752N 08229W 8425 01565 0090 +165 +133 106031 032 037 013 00
191230 1751N 08230W 8430 01559 0090 +162 +135 105031 032 037 010 00
191300 1750N 08232W 8430 01557 0090 +160 +136 105032 033 036 011 00
191330 1749N 08233W 8429 01557 0084 +168 +128 109035 035 037 010 00
191400 1747N 08234W 8432 01554 0084 +166 +127 110036 037 037 009 00
191430 1746N 08235W 8432 01550 0080 +165 +147 111037 038 036 009 00
191500 1745N 08237W 8431 01550 0081 +161 +153 109037 038 035 009 00
191530 1744N 08238W 8431 01548 0079 +163 +138 111040 040 036 006 00
191600 1742N 08239W 8429 01549 0077 +162 +141 106040 041 037 004 00
191630 1741N 08241W 8433 01543 0073 +162 +141 104042 043 037 005 00
$$
;

[ozonepete]

According to Mark Sudduth on Twitter, crazy uncle HWRF gains a few points



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
this was yesterday's (Sunday the 23rd's) 12z HWRF run.

Wow, let's hope that track doesn't pan out!

[jlauderdal]

18z model runs are going to be critical. I think we have a whole new ballgame.

Same ball game, just a stronger hurricane. The steering currents aren't changing.

could it go so strong it creates its own environment and plow through the trough coming in, ?

[Nimbus]

As MW explained a stronger hurricane will probably amplify the next front that drops down into the gulf. Hopefully the front will get to the core of Rina long before she makes landfall anywhere. Sometimes major hurricanes pump up significant high pressure domes over themselves that can shield the core and delay an approaching front. With a major storm in the NW Caribbean they will probably be doing a special upper air analysis as the front approaches.

[Dave]

[jlauderdal]

I I cannot believe the timing of this storm. It is parents weekend at FSU. There are going to be many parents traveling on Friday and returning on Sunday. I am looking forward to seeing my son I hope Rina doesn't make me miss seeing him!!!

im sure all the students at fsu will be able to resume the partying sunday after the parents leave, i doubt there will be any delay in the parents departure due to rina

[Vortex]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.




IMO, I think Rina will stay east of the Yucatan peninsula. In fact, over the next 24hours a very slow wnw movement can be expected with a turn towards the N on Wednesday. I think a major hurricane is now possible for western Cuba. At the same time bands of heavy rain/squalls may spread N from cuba on Friday and effect the Keys and SFL. A turn to the NE should be expected while crossing Cuba and passing over or just SE of the keys/SFL and heading over the NW bahamas..

**Its likely most of the weather will be east of the center once passing N of 22N as a result of shear

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241926
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 31 20111024
191700 1740N 08242W 8428 01544 0070 +161 +137 103046 046 040 006 00
191730 1739N 08243W 8430 01536 0062 +165 +134 109050 053 041 006 00
191800 1737N 08245W 8425 01535 0052 +174 +127 109054 054 042 004 00
191830 1736N 08246W 8430 01527 0049 +170 +131 104051 052 043 002 00
191900 1735N 08247W 8433 01520 0046 +167 +135 103054 055 044 002 00
191930 1733N 08249W 8429 01523 0044 +163 +142 098054 055 045 001 03
192000 1732N 08250W 8429 01516 0041 +159 +145 097057 058 046 003 00
192030 1731N 08251W 8441 01496 0032 +163 +146 095060 061 048 002 00
192100 1729N 08253W 8420 01511 0029 +152 //// 091061 062 049 007 01
192130 1728N 08254W 8436 01489 0014 +164 +160 094061 063 050 004 00
192200 1726N 08256W 8433 01486 0005 +170 +156 092061 062 052 003 03
192230 1725N 08257W 8431 01477 9993 +169 +151 088062 063 056 002 00
192300 1723N 08258W 8439 01460 9987 +162 +159 087063 066 052 006 00
192330 1722N 08258W 8426 01465 9970 +175 +153 090064 064 053 004 00
192400 1720N 08259W 8430 01451 9968 +158 +150 092065 067 055 009 00
192430 1718N 08300W 8424 01444 9950 +162 +159 094065 067 060 009 03
192500 1717N 08301W 8428 01427 9932 +169 +161 096045 055 059 007 00
192530 1715N 08301W 8430 01420 9922 +178 +152 091038 039 055 001 03
192600 1713N 08301W 8426 01418 9912 +180 +162 094030 035 044 004 00
192630 1712N 08301W 8432 01406 9906 +180 +155 104018 021 035 001 03
$$
;

[NDG]

67 knots is the strongest flight level winds they find in her NE quadrant.

192400 1720N 08259W 8430 01451 9968 +158 +150 092065 067 055 009

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 241933
XXAA 74198 99171 70830 04573 99989 26625 32502 00602 ///// /////
92585 22406 08507 85322 20239 17505 88999 77999
31313 09608 81927
61616 AF306 0218A RINA OB 16
62626 EYE SPL 1714N08303W 1929 MBL WND 06503 AEV 20802 DLM WND 10
004 988843 WL150 00000 084 REL 1714N08303W 192738 SPG 1714N08303W
192929 =
XXBB 74198 99171 70830 04573 00989 26625 11908 21607 22850 20239
33843 19445
21212 00989 32502 11971 09001 22913 08510 33885 12003 44855 16507
55843 20004
31313 09608 81927
61616 AF306 0218A RINA OB 16
62626 EYE SPL 1714N08303W 1929 MBL WND 06503 AEV 20802 DLM WND 10
004 988843 WL150 00000 084 REL 1714N08303W 192738 SPG 1714N08303W
192929 =
;

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE OB 16

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 19:33Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 18
Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 16

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 19Z on the 24th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 17.1N 83.0W
Location: 186 miles (299 km) to the SW (215°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
Marsden Square: 045 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
989mb (29.21 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 24.1°C (75.4°F) 325° (from the NW) 2 knots (2 mph)
1000mb -102m (-335 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb 585m (1,919 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 21.8°C (71.2°F) 85° (from the E) 7 knots (8 mph)
850mb 1,322m (4,337 ft) 20.2°C (68.4°F) 16.3°C (61.3°F) 175° (from the S) 5 knots (6 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 19:27Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 17.14N 83.03W
Splash Time: 19:29Z

Release Location: 17.14N 83.03W View map)
Release Time: 19:27:38Z

Splash Location: 17.14N 83.03W (
Splash Time: 19:29:29Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 65° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 3 knots (3 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 100° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 4 knots (5 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 988mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 0° (from the N)
- Wind Speed: 0 knots (0 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
989mb (Surface) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 24.1°C (75.4°F)
908mb 21.6°C (70.9°F) 20.9°C (69.6°F)
850mb 20.2°C (68.4°F) 16.3°C (61.3°F)
843mb 19.4°C (66.9°F) 14.9°C (58.8°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
989mb (Surface) 325° (from the NW) 2 knots (2 mph)
971mb 90° (from the E) 1 knots (1 mph)
913mb 85° (from the E) 10 knots (12 mph)
885mb 120° (from the ESE) 3 knots (3 mph)
855mb 165° (from the SSE) 7 knots (8 mph)
843mb 200° (from the SSW) 4 knots (5 mph)


---



[Dave]

DROPSONDE OB 15

000
UZNT13 KNHC 241935
XXAA 74198 99173 70830 04573 99996 25826 06054 00537 ///// /////
92648 21614 08566 85378 17213 09064 88999 77999
31313 09608 81923
61616 AF306 0218A RINA OB 15
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1733N08303W 1926 MBL WND 07564 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 08064 995843 WL150 07060 084 REL 1734N08299W 192354 SPG 1734N0
8303W 192623 =
XXBB 74198 99173 70830 04573 00996 25826 11850 17213 22843 16416
21212 00996 06054 11990 07061 22968 07567 33857 09065 44843 09064
31313 09608 81923
61616 AF306 0218A RINA OB 15
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1733N08303W 1926 MBL WND 07564 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 08064 995843 WL150 07060 084 REL 1734N08299W 192354 SPG 1734N0
8303W 192623 =
;

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE OB 15

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 19:35Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 18
Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 15

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 19Z on the 24th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 17.3N 83.0W
Location: 174 miles (281 km) to the SW (217°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
Marsden Square: 045 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
996mb (29.41 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 23.2°C (73.8°F) 60° (from the ENE) 54 knots (62 mph)
1000mb -37m (-121 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb 648m (2,126 ft) 21.6°C (70.9°F) 20.2°C (68.4°F) 85° (from the E) 66 knots (76 mph)
850mb 1,378m (4,521 ft) 17.2°C (63.0°F) 15.9°C (60.6°F) 90° (from the E) 64 knots (74 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 19:23Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in maximum wind band.

Splash Location: 17.33N 83.03W
Splash Time: 19:26Z

Release Location: 17.34N 82.99W View map)
Release Time: 19:23:54Z

Splash Location: 17.34N 83.03W (
Splash Time: 19:26:23Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 75° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 64 knots (74 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 80° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 64 knots (74 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 995mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 70° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 60 knots (69 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
996mb (Surface) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 23.2°C (73.8°F)
850mb 17.2°C (63.0°F) 15.9°C (60.6°F)
843mb 16.4°C (61.5°F) 14.8°C (58.6°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
996mb (Surface) 60° (from the ENE) 54 knots (62 mph)
990mb 70° (from the ENE) 61 knots (70 mph)
968mb 75° (from the ENE) 67 knots (77 mph)
857mb 90° (from the E) 65 knots (75 mph)
843mb 90° (from the E) 64 knots (74 mph)




[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241936
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 32 20111024
192700 1710N 08301W 8429 01402 9900 +183 +152 105012 016 025 000 03
192730 1709N 08302W 8422 01406 9894 +187 +149 144004 007 014 001 03
192800 1707N 08302W 8433 01395 9887 +202 +144 245014 016 013 000 03
192830 1706N 08303W 8423 01405 9888 +202 +143 269020 025 025 000 03
192900 1705N 08304W 8434 01400 9896 +196 +144 291031 034 032 000 00
192930 1704N 08305W 8425 01418 9908 +190 +154 295036 039 049 002 00
193000 1703N 08306W 8433 01422 9923 +185 +159 292049 053 059 009 00
193030 1702N 08307W 8420 01444 9941 +171 +162 300056 058 058 009 00
193100 1700N 08308W 8427 01450 9956 +174 +158 306054 055 058 003 00
193130 1659N 08310W 8431 01456 9971 +170 +155 309057 060 056 002 00
193200 1658N 08311W 8431 01468 9989 +157 //// 315057 058 055 005 01
193230 1657N 08312W 8430 01479 0006 +152 //// 314055 059 052 007 01
193300 1656N 08313W 8425 01492 0002 +173 +152 306050 052 051 001 00
193330 1655N 08314W 8433 01491 0006 +179 +147 308048 049 050 003 00
193400 1654N 08315W 8429 01500 0018 +165 +149 308047 047 049 004 00
193430 1653N 08317W 8430 01503 0024 +167 +147 310050 052 048 007 00
193500 1652N 08318W 8432 01504 0030 +165 +147 314052 052 049 007 00
193530 1651N 08319W 8427 01515 0035 +165 +148 316053 054 045 005 00
193600 1650N 08320W 8426 01519 0043 +159 +149 317053 055 043 006 00
193630 1648N 08321W 8428 01525 0048 +161 +148 318049 050 043 000 03
$$
;

[SouthDadeFish]

Extrap pressure down to 988.7mb on the most recent center fix.